Billy Claude

That Jones was sacked at about the same rate as UDFA Tommy Devito is not a good look, especially as Devito was blitzed more and had a more make-shift line to deal with.

Its not only how long he holds the ball on average, but also how often he goes to the hot route so that there is no chance that the defense can get pressure on him. I get the feeling that when he sees a blitz coming, rather than going to the hot route like most QBs, his first inclination is to see it as an opportunity to scramble out of it and make a play downfield agains the reduce coverage. This is partly because he gets blitz a lot, about 30% of the time versus 20% for the league leaders like Purdy, Mahomes, and Tua which is also partly because defenses know he doesn't go to his hot reads very ofien.

XP percentages are most likely not very statistically meaningful even over 4 years since one or two more missed XP would change the percentage from very good to average, this is demonstrated by Bass' XP percentage in the playoffs which at just under 90% is very bad. They definitely should have some alternatives that they can go to quickly if issues continue in training camp or during the season.

Giants OL was definitely bad but a significant factor was DeVito and Jones: Jones: 1 sack out of every 6.3 dropbacks (att+sacks) Taylor: 1 out of 11.6 DeVito: 1 out of 5.8 Giants: 1 out of 7.2 -- essentially Rob Johnson numbers (1 out of 6.6) For comparision Allen: 1 out of 25.1 Mahomes: 1 out of 23.1 2023 league average: 1 out of 14.4

As this thread is pretty much off track .... Probably an unpopular opinion but I regard deflategate as no big deal. The harshness of the punishment was mainly due to the justified criticism of Goodell's handling of the Patriots' video cheating. Any other team and it would have been a one game suspension at most and more likely just a fine.

I don't see the similarity between Douglas and Beane. Douglas has used 10 out of his 14 first two day draft choices on the offense, including 4 OL (3 in the first round) and 4 WR. His bigger FA signings has also been primarily OL and WR. He just hasn't been very good at it, though he had a great draft 3 years ago. Of course it is a lot easier to draft well if you have three first rounders including two picks in the top ten. Douglas also has had a lot more out and out busts than Beane has. The similarity you can argue between Douglas and Beane is that they both seem to put more emphasis on traits than on college production.

Hopefully it was just the rookie wall for Torrence and certainly you expect to him to get better with experience. As for Morse, I think I value his leadership and experience than most fans on the board.

To me there is a good chance the Bills' offensive line will take a serious step back this coming season. The reasons have been mentioned by others many times: (1) The Bills are downgrading at left guard from McGovern to David Edwards. (2) Folks like to belittle Morse's contributions but he was still a decent NFL starter and will most likely will be the starter at Jacksonville this season. There's a lot more to playing center than being bigger and stronger. Throwing a guy in who only played center during his sophomore year in college is seriously rolling the dice. (3) Torrence's play declined at the end of last season. Either Torrence hitted the rookie wall or NFL defenses figured him out. Him and Kromer will need to adjust. (4) A large part of oline's success least season was due to that it was injury free. This is unlikely to happen again. Without Bates, the depth is either extremly inexperienced (van Demark, Anderson, and Pran-Granger have played in 2, 0, and 0 NFL games) or most likely washed up (Collins). Agree but it is also up to the QB to recognize the blitz pre-snap and go to the hot read to discourage blitzing. The Bills rarely do this.

Pretty sure Rodgers has been at every OTA which was what was so surprising about him missing the mandatory.

Some other poster said that the NBA lost a lawsuit that required NBA to offer a single team option but did not specify how much they could charge for it.

Don't get your hopes up on the cheaper price part. The NBA has a single team access for League Pass. $14.99 per month for the entire league, $13.99 per month if you just want one team.

Nice deflection. You get called out for saying Allen gets blitz a lot because the oline stinks and then bring up an entirely irrelevant point. First as it turns out Allen doesn't actually get blitz an extremely high percentage of time. He ranks high in number of times he is blitzed because he passes a lot. He is blitzed on 30.2% of dropbacks where dropbacks are counted as attempts + sacks. This turns out to rank 11th among qualifying qbs, so above average but clearly in the main portion of the bell curve. Jordan Love leads at 35.3% while Brock Purdy is just below Allen at 30.1%. Second there is little correlation between how good an oline is and whether the opponents blitzs a lot. Lamar Jackson (34.2%), Jared Goff (33.5%), Jalen Hurts (32.2%) and Matthew Stafford (31.2%) were all blitz at a higher rate than Allen and I think most people would agree that those QBs had good olines protecting them. OTOH, Zach Wilson (27.3%), the Giants QBS (28.2%) and Kyler Murray (25.5%) all were blitzed at a lower rate than Allen. Again, I think most people would agree that the Jets, Giants and Cardinals had some of the worse olines in the league last season. The QBs blitzed at the lowest rate were Burrow (21.3%), Mahomes (21.2%), and Tagovailoa (19.7%). This is just another indication that blitz percentage is primarily a QB/OC stat rather than an oline stat. I would definitely like to see the blitz percentage on Allen be a lot closer to Mahomes but that is up to Allen and Brady and not a reflection of the quality of the oline.

If Allen took the hot read he wouldn't need to scramble so much and eventually there will be a lot less blitzing. Is there correlation between a high blitz rate and quality of the oline? If the oline was really bad, why bother blitzing at all -- you can get there without it.

27 catches on 75 targets and jumping out of a window naked in between seasons are some of the reasons people didn't expect a lot from him. The folks who expected anything significant from Zay Jones in his 2nd year are the same people assume that Shakir will be all pro this season.

I think what the high blitz percentage and high air yards per attempt really implies is that Allen doesn't audible into a hot route very often and that he really should be doing a lot more of it.

If you weren't only looking at expectations and where they ended up, no one was expecting much from Zay Jones his second year after his 35% catch percentage his rookie year.

I think we just have to disagree with your assessment of the last three games. In my opinion offense looked very good both against the Steelers and the Dolphins They also looked pretty decent against the #2 defense in the NFL against the Chiefs. This is just an opinion so I do not contest your right to have yours.

There is other data to indicate that Allen's passes go longer than average. From Pro Football Reference Average air yards per pass attempt / average air yards per completion. The rank is among qualifiying QBs. 2023 8.7 (3rd)/ 6.1 (10th) 2022 9.2 (3rd)/ 7.5 (2nd) 2021 8.2 (8th)/ 6.5 (6th) 2020 8.5 (9th)/ 6.8 (7th) So if Allen did not throw more very long passes than the average QB, then he must have thrown a lot fewer dumpoffs and quick hitters than average. Those passes reduce a lot of stress off the oline. BTW what were the league averages on percentage of pass atempts over 20 yards? I know it has been going down. An interesting sidenote is that Allen seems to have increased his air yards per attempt the last two years and, at least in 2023, being quite a bit less successful on it. Was this due to Dorsey? Due to not having Cole Beasley as a legitimate bailout?

In some cases you are looking at expectations for the year -- "Jordan Matthews was a perennial 900 yard receiver but imploded with the Bills" and in another case you are looking at accomplishments during the season -- " Zay Jones who would have a promising sophomore season". Picking and choosing which one you want to use to make the argument pretty much destroys its credibility. The WR room this season looks pretty weak going in but I don't think it was as bad as the 2017 one looked. It has always been my belief that that Bills intended to tank that season and were surprised to be in the playoff hunt. Anquan Boldin obviously though so too.

Absolutely agree that the defense was bad during the last six games of Dorsey's tenure. However, independent of the defense, the offense was also pretty bad during those six games. Outside of the Chargers and Patriots games which I certainly don't want to discount, I don't see how anyone watching the Brady OC games would say that the Bills' offense did not at minimum look smoother and less discombulated than Dorsey's last six games. The defense definitely played much better during the last 9 games (with the exception of the KC playoff game). A lot of this was due to McDermott adjusting and the pickup of Douglas after the first round of injuries. However, the defense also gave up fewer points because the offense held the ball so long so there were fewer drives per game. The defense also most likely started with better field position on average since there were fewer three and outs (these last two "facts" are guesses, I didn't check that). These appear to be unpopular words on the board but it really was textbook complementary football. The main question is why did the offense look smoother under Brady? If it was primarily due to Josh Allen running more then is it sustainable? You bring up some data, i.e., Allen's lower completion percentage under Brady that suggests that this is the case so that is definitely something to be concerned about.

I am skeptical of Brady but you are undercutting arguments with how one-sided they are. You can always find a reason to disregard a data point after the fact. Lets consider the Brady games one by one and make the argument the other way. Jets: You say the Jets defense was decimated by injuries but what injuries? 10 out of their 11 regular starters started the Bills game and played their normal amount of snaps. The only starter that was inactive was their slot cornerback Michael Carter and he was a part time starter; Saleh was moving people in and out of that position trying to find the most effective player. He eventually landed on Carter who is a decent player but hardly the linchpin of that defense, The Jets had a lot of injuries but it was the mirror image of the Bills -- most of the injuries were on offense, and outside of Aaron Rodgers, mostly on the offensive line. The Jets had some bad defensive performances after the Bills game but I feel it was caused by the Bills game. The Jets knew they had to win the Bills game to have a realistic chance of making the playoffs. IMHO the run of bad defensive performances by the Jets was caused by the defense essentially giving up for a while after the Bills game rather than a lot of defensive injuries. Eagles: The Eagles were a bad defense but the Bills offense still played well. In the past, the Bills offense have had plenty of bad games against bad offenses. Brady and the Bills offense should be given credit for a good offensive game (which would the Bills would have been won if they had a better kicker). Chiefs: If you disregard good offensive games because they are playing against bad defenses, you also have to give credit for okay games against very good defenses (2nd ranked by yardage). Cowboys: Brady called a great game against the Cowboys. Full stop. Nobody said anything about the Cowboys being emotionally spend from the Eagles game before the Bills game. If the Bills had played badly, you could have just as well make the argument that the Bills were emotionally spent from the previous week's game against the Chiefs. Both arguments feel like desperate reaches trying to justify a result after the fact. Chargers and Patriots: The Chargers and Patriots game were just awful offensive performances and the one of the primary reason to question how successful Brady will be. Dolphins: The offense was moving up and down the field at will against the Dolphins for over 487 total yards. Unfortunately Josh Allen was handing out turnovers like it was Halloween candy (all of them in Miami territory including one on the Miami 5 yard line). Obviously the Dolphins defense was decimated by injuries but you can't just ignore the 487 yards and I don't think you can blame two interceptions and a fumble by Allen all on Brady. Steelers: The Bills performed masterfully in the first half. This included 80 yard drives of 8 and 10 plays. The only reason the Steelers got back in the game was a blocked 48 yard field goal leading to a short field TD before the end of the half. You can blame that on Bass or you can blame that on McDermott but it certainly wasn't Brady's fault. In the second half the Bills defensive injuries started piling up and the Bills only had the ball four times but only punted once (td, fg, missed fg, and punt). Again, the Steelers had a lot of injuries but this game has to count as a plus for Brady. Chiefs: Again 2nd rank defense in the league. The Bills offense wasn't great but was ok, given the injuries on defense this was the only game plan that would give the Bills a decent chance of winning. Like I said I have a lot of sympathy for your skepticism of Brady. (1) The Bills offense increased by a one play per drive and more than 5 minutes in time of possession under Brady. This is impressive but how much of this is due to running Allen a lot more. Is this sustainable? Can Brady do this with Allen running less? Yes, TOP is both an offensive and defensive statistic but surely adding one play per drive and running more contributes substantially to that. (2) Cook had 3 very good games under Brady -- he had over 80 yards receiving against both the Jets and Eagles. However, he was ineffective once the league's DCs figured out you had to account for him. Can Brady figure out how to make Cook effective? (3) Brady seems to want to go to the short passing game and the new WR room will almost force it. This is not playing into Allen's strength nor is it something Allen is particularly good at nor likes to do. You would think going to a short passing game should increase Allen's completion percentage. The fact that the completion percentage went down is what I find most troubling.

That the Bills expected to have Diggs on the team this season is the only way that the WR strategy made any sense.

As someone who never understood why people thought Bass was elite, the fact that he his practice kicks were falling short was the strongest evidence that it was an unreported injury and not the yips.

Everybody loves Ray Davis right now, but I definitely wouldn't have minded if they use that draft choice and some other assets to go up and get Franklin.

It would be interesting to figure out what exactly happened but most likely it will never come out. Yes, a second WR drafted would have been nice but you don't have much of a plan if you are counting on a 4th or 5th round rookie wide receiver to contribute in a substantial manner. Look at what Shakir did his rookie year, and I don't expect anything from Shorter who were the Bills' last two 4th and 5th round receivers.