JGMcD2

WR Keon Coleman CB Kaiir Elam LB Edefuan Ulofoshio OL Will Clapp OL Spencer Brown TE Dalton Kincaid Three pretty big inactives on that list... none bigger than Spencer Brown. Although Van Demark held his own at RT.

Milano was subbed out for a dime look. He was not hurt.

Yeah, if you ignore the two terrible turnovers 😂

Oh, so what do you evaluate things based off of? Forgive me that I forgot you sit and watch the Rams All-22 footage every week 😂

Yep, definitely doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that Buffalo rotates their defensive lineman more than Los Angeles… definitely not. Rousseau has the highest snap count (66%) and Epenesa is 2nd (55%) the Rams have 3 guys over 70% and the 4th highest is 60%.

Illuminating the fact people undervalue Bills players and overvalue players on other teams. He was a solid player for Los Angeles, he didn’t do anything more impressive than Epenesa (who was a relative bargain as an FA) and was significantly less effective than a guy like Rousseau. Age is incredibly important, he came into the league in his prime. You’re expecting continued ascension because he’s a rookie, but he’s closer to a finished product than not. With the benefit of hindsight you were willing to trade up into the Top 20 for a player less productive than Epenesa and Rousseau, while ignoring the fact that there’s suppressed projection due to age and maxed out physicality? Subjective stats? Dude played 200 more snaps and had 1.5 fewer sacks lmao

Verse 17 Games 834 Snaps 4.5 Sacks 11 TFL 18 QB Hits Epenesa 17 Games 612 Snaps 6 Sacks 8 TFL 11 QB Hits

He is 24 years old, the same age as Greg Rousseau. He’s closer to a finished product than not.

A guy who is less productive than AJ Epenesa on a per snap basis?

I’m routinely nervous on game day, it doesn’t matter who we play. That’s no different today. That being said, I have something telling me the Bills are going to be aggressive today in all phases. There’s a quiet confidence that’s just oozing from that building in Orchard Park. ”Well, I guess we’ll find out.”

Bill O’Brien was never a guy I felt it would be worth hitching my wagon to - he is a mess.

Gaine and Morgan picked absolutely terrible situations. Schoen has been a little bit of a disappointment if I’m being honest. The decision to bring Daniel Jones back was a massive blunder that set them back.

The quiet confidence flowing through this team right now has me feeling some type of way…

It's like 22/32 so nearly 70%.

You are clearly articulating that you don't understand how this works. Boogie Basham, despite possibly have an AV slightly better than some practice squad or fringe roster players, still returns more negative value for the Buffalo Bills. His on-field production has not justified his selection, and because of this is reflecting negatively against the Bills. Damar Hamlin provides some positive value, as expected from a starter on a 12–13 win team, but it's not substantial. In the same draft, Rousseau and Spencer Brown add significant value, with Brown contributing heavily. However, Hamlin’s value is largely offset by the lack of contributions from other picks like Boogie Basham, Tommy Doyle, Marquez Stevenson, Rachad Wildgoose, and Jack Anderson. As a result, the bulk of the 2021 draft class value for Buffalo comes from Rousseau and Brown, who rank 9th in the class—well behind the top 5 teams (DET, KAN, DEN, PHI, and HOU). I’m open to constructive feedback, but after five years of analysis, I haven’t seen received anything tangible that helps improve the process. Most people with a negative reaction, including yourself, seem to struggle with understanding how it works. If you have solid suggestions or publicly available information that’s reliable for comparing players across different positions, that would be helpful.

Well, you’re proving you didn’t read how this works, which makes your reply largely meaningless 😂 That is absolutely not the case at all. I’ll let you go back and read up. Because I know you won’t, and it’ll confuse others, here’s how it actually breaks down. Basham + Elam + Spector = -21.6 Benford = 9.7

Too tough for them, just right for us?

What does the extending draft picks have to do with anything? I have two separate methodologies, one that shows the value to the team and one that shows the value independent of team. The Bills lead in both categories - so I’m not sure I follow your point there. I’m having a hard time following exactly what you’re asking for in general. Do you mind rephrasing it?

I excluded the 2017 draft class because it was not managed by Beane, and there is often some debate around its inclusion. This provides a clearer line of delineation. However, I do have the breakdown for the 2017 class, and it ranks second overall, just behind the New Orleans Saints, who had an outstanding draft that year. That being said, the Bills are not very far behind. When evaluating a draft class, the general consensus is to wait 3-5 seasons for a more accurate assessment. This is why I excluded the 2023 and 2024 drafts, as we have not yet reached that window. That was the reasoning behind my decision - but for full transparency they rank 12th and 10th respectively. I want to put this into perspective... when I ranked the 2022 draft class immediately after the 2022 season, the Bills draft class ranked outside the top 20 (22nd) and now after three years of performance it's ranked 2nd. Regarding your point about Josh Allen pumping up the numbers dramatically, I would like to offer a rebuttal. The original rankings I included were sorted by NETDrAV, which I define as: The AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class. I am including a new chart below that is sorted by NETCarAV, which I define as: The pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class. The Bills do not move at all... Beane very rarely misses. He is identifying talent at such an incredibly consistent rate compared to his peers; it's not just tied to Josh Allen. Yeah, it's definitely a weak spot. Although AV rewards you for being an All-Pro and Pro Bowler - there is a multiplier built into the formula. It's baked in there, just probably not weighted appropriately.

Who are they taking off the field for Cole Bishop? Taylor Rapp and/or Damar Hamlin? Seems unlikely. Taron Johnson? Highly unlikely. Matt Milano or Terrel Bernard? Absolutely not. Dorian Williams? I mean, maybe but that also means that Taron Johnson isn't on the field...

And the 2nd line of defense won't include Cam Lewis or Cole Bishop...

No, they say - "When you look at him, he's overrated...."

I have it on good authority he was kicked out of the Rivers School for smoking pot.

2023 is currently sitting 12th overall. It'll tick up a bit because of Kincaid, Torrence and Williams. Otherwise, it was a small class and somewhat underwhelming class.

PFR has recently updated their AV (Approximate Value) metric now that the 2024 regular season has concluded. Below are links to the previous four updates, which detail the methodology and provide snapshots of team standings at various points throughout time. These earlier posts serve as a valuable reminder that evaluating draft classes can be a challenging task, as the true impact of these players often takes years to fully materialize. With three seasons of data from the 2022 draft class now available, we can more confidently draw conclusions about the draft classes from 2018 to 2022 and the trends they reveal. 2021 League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive 2022 *UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive 2023 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III 2024 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part IV