JGMcD2

What does the extending draft picks have to do with anything? I have two separate methodologies, one that shows the value to the team and one that shows the value independent of team. The Bills lead in both categories - so I’m not sure I follow your point there. I’m having a hard time following exactly what you’re asking for in general. Do you mind rephrasing it?

I excluded the 2017 draft class because it was not managed by Beane, and there is often some debate around its inclusion. This provides a clearer line of delineation. However, I do have the breakdown for the 2017 class, and it ranks second overall, just behind the New Orleans Saints, who had an outstanding draft that year. That being said, the Bills are not very far behind. When evaluating a draft class, the general consensus is to wait 3-5 seasons for a more accurate assessment. This is why I excluded the 2023 and 2024 drafts, as we have not yet reached that window. That was the reasoning behind my decision - but for full transparency they rank 12th and 10th respectively. I want to put this into perspective... when I ranked the 2022 draft class immediately after the 2022 season, the Bills draft class ranked outside the top 20 (22nd) and now after three years of performance it's ranked 2nd. Regarding your point about Josh Allen pumping up the numbers dramatically, I would like to offer a rebuttal. The original rankings I included were sorted by NETDrAV, which I define as: The AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class. I am including a new chart below that is sorted by NETCarAV, which I define as: The pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class. The Bills do not move at all... Beane very rarely misses. He is identifying talent at such an incredibly consistent rate compared to his peers; it's not just tied to Josh Allen. Yeah, it's definitely a weak spot. Although AV rewards you for being an All-Pro and Pro Bowler - there is a multiplier built into the formula. It's baked in there, just probably not weighted appropriately.

Who are they taking off the field for Cole Bishop? Taylor Rapp and/or Damar Hamlin? Seems unlikely. Taron Johnson? Highly unlikely. Matt Milano or Terrel Bernard? Absolutely not. Dorian Williams? I mean, maybe but that also means that Taron Johnson isn't on the field...

And the 2nd line of defense won't include Cam Lewis or Cole Bishop...

No, they say - "When you look at him, he's overrated...."

I have it on good authority he was kicked out of the Rivers School for smoking pot.

2023 is currently sitting 12th overall. It'll tick up a bit because of Kincaid, Torrence and Williams. Otherwise, it was a small class and somewhat underwhelming class.

PFR has recently updated their AV (Approximate Value) metric now that the 2024 regular season has concluded. Below are links to the previous four updates, which detail the methodology and provide snapshots of team standings at various points throughout time. These earlier posts serve as a valuable reminder that evaluating draft classes can be a challenging task, as the true impact of these players often takes years to fully materialize. With three seasons of data from the 2022 draft class now available, we can more confidently draw conclusions about the draft classes from 2018 to 2022 and the trends they reveal. 2021 League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive 2022 *UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive 2023 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III 2024 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part IV

Yeah, his answer is going to be Creed Humphrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins or Asante Samuel Jr.

Based on what dude? Quick look at PFF says Asante Samuel grades as the 131st best CB in the NFL in 2024. Rousseau is grading out as the 12th ranked DE. The metric I’m going by has Creed Humphrey and Amon-Ra above Rousseau, so I agree there. The 3rd player is Spencer Brown. Collins and Samuel are behind. So yeah man, you picked out 2 guys of the 220 taken after Rousseau that are (and 2 that might) be more valuable. Are you going to start making draft picks with the Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future?

AJ is perfectly fine pick in Round 2. Boogie and Elam are busts. Holy *****!!! You cracked the ***** code, a NFL GM drafted a bust!!!! He literally is that lol

You’re still ignoring him being a TOP 10-15 PLAYER IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT CLASS!!!!!! Only 3 guys selected after him have provided more value to their teams, and the Bills drafted one of them! How is that a reach? There were literally only 3 other choices drafted in the 220(ish) picks taken after him that could have been better value than Rousseau.

Huh? You don’t care who was drafted around him, those were the options at the position. The draft isn’t a free market, it’s dictated by the talent available. That being said you not pay attention to the fact he’s been one of the top 10-15 players IN THE ENTIRE DRAFT CLASS?! That’s undoubtedly worth a first round pick.

So would you have preferred Odafe Oweh or Joe Tryon-Shoyinka? It’s not pedestrian for a late 1st round pick, if we took Rousseau at 1.5, sure you may have a case. We took him at 1.30 and he’s outplayed his classmates league wide. He’s one of the top 10-15 players in that entire draft class, and only 3 of those players went AFTER him. Including our own Spencer Brown.

Brother, I don’t think you have a coherent point. You shifted from “bottom feeding teams” leapfrogging us to this point about GMs building Super Bowl contenders. The NFC teams don’t have to compete with KC every year to get to the Super Bowl, you know, the game that KC has played in 4/5 past seasons. We do not have a team building issue, we have a KC issue, like 30 other teams. If you’re going to start down the draft success road… I’ll pull out some objective data that just absolutely blows your mind. Beane drafts as good as anyone in the league, outside of maybe John Lynch and Eric DeCosta. P.S. How in the ***** are you trying to lump Rousseau in as a bust? Rousseau has been plenty productive, look at the other DE taken around him in 2021. Payton Turner Odafe Oweh (Eric DeCosta!) Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

What bottom feeder teams are jumping us and winning Super Bowls? Here are the Super Bowl matchups since Josh broke out in 2020... Tampa Bay/Kansas City (2020) Los Angeles/Cincinnati (2021) Philadelphia/Kansas City (2022) San Francisco/Kansas City (2023) Oh, and for good measure the Super Bowl in 2019 was San Francisco/Kansas City... so who are these bottom feeder teams leaping us? If you want to point to the NFC teams, your argument is just dumb, we don't play in the NFC. If you want to point to the Bengals, considering they're the only team outside of KC to make a Super Bowl, then your definition of "bottom feeder" is ridiculous.

The announcers were literally quoting the Steelers DC saying that they were going to key in on Derrick Henry and let Lamar Jackson beat them. It’s hysterical that they were saying that out of one side of their mouth, and then selling us on Lamar Jackson as MVP out of the other side.

Jacksonville is great situation if they move on from Baalke, which it seems like they’re willing to do for Ben Johnson. If Ben Johnson gets to be paired with his desired candidate (rumored to be Lance Newmark) then that checks off the GM box. The Khan family has shown a tremendous amount of patience with previous coaches like Gus Bradley, Doug Marrone and Doug Pederson. They even seemed reluctant to move on from Urban Meyer until he was accused of physically abusing a player. They’re also more than willing to spend money. This is more than enough to check off the ownership box, especially if they go get him his desired GM. Then you have Trevor Lawrence who has proven to be inconsistent, but has had flashes of high level play. Doesn’t seem all that different than Goff when he got to Detroit? Now Johnson gets to play around with an offense that features talent like Etienne, Bigsby, Thomas, Kirk, Davis and Engram? Not to mention the 5th pick in the draft. Can you not see him crafting something similar to Detroit? They have $35M in cap space and only 2 starters slated to hit free agency (Scherff and Cisco). It has the makings of a wonderful situation in an incredibly weak division. He’d have a chance to take the AFC South in year 1.

It’s clicking…

Absolutely, but it’s really hard if you land in a situation with bad ownership, bad GM or bad QB. Most situations you don’t even have 2/3. You will not even get the opportunity to install a program because you’ll be fired after 2-3 years because people get impatient Being selective like Ben Johnson has been is the best thing you can do for yourself.

I think he does… look for Darnold to go to LA and replace him too…

When it’s all clicking, I think the Rams are the best team in the NFC…

Agree it’s ironic, because it was on a no-call. Although, based on Josh’s smirk, I don’t think that was the actual conversation. He was protecting Vinovich there… he quickly said “I’m not going to comment on that” after his initial comment.

Mack owes me a game ball for the two times he stepped over a guy like a dipshit. I love Mack, but those are costly.

Right, that’s the whole point.