JGMcD2

What am I missing?

They’ve had three cracks at finding their QB, three different ways, and still haven’t been able to do it. They’ve built a talented roster, so they deserve to get as many chances as they want to fail at finding a QB? Lynch and Shanahan felt that Trey Lance was worth moving three 1st Round picks in order to acquire. They must have considered him to be quite talented? Everyone thought they were going to develop the next Josh Allen… but they weren’t capable of doing that. You’re giving too much credit to Shanahan/Lynch and not enough credit to McDermott/Beane. They didn’t just find Josh, they developed him into the wonderful, incredible, proven QB.

And why do we have the right QB? Who is responsible for molding the guy you consider “the best QB” ? I don’t think Josh would turn into Jimmy G with Shanny as his play caller, but I can make a serious argument that Josh never would’ve turned into Josh with Shanny as his HC. Exhibit A: Trey Lance Exhibit B: Robert Griffin III

You’re taking the guys who have been unable to lock down the most important position in football? An offensive mind that can’t get the QB right? Why is it that Ol’ Conservative Defensive McDermott did a better job identifying his QB than Wünderkid Kyle Shanahan? They’ve had 3 separate cracks at it. The amount that McBeane gets flamed here because Elam has been a bust in the back half of RD1 is hysterical considering Lynch/Shanahan gave up the house to pick Trey Lance in the Top 3 picks. If it wasn’t Lance, it was going to be Mac Jones.

He's in historically rare company, let's not act like coaches in the Super Bowl era who are .600 or better are just floating around. It's 22 coaches stretching across 60 seasons. John Madden (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Vince Lombardi (2 Conference Championships, 2 Super Bowls) George Allen (1 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowls) Matt LaFleur (0 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowls) Don Shula (6 Conference Championship, 2 Super Bowls) Tony Dungy (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Sean McDermott (0 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowl) Andy Reid (5 Conference Championship, 3 Super Bowl) George Seifert (2 Conference Championship, 2 Super Bowl) Bill Belichick (9 Conference Championship, 6 Super Bowl) Mike Tomlin (2 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bruce Arians (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Mike Martz (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bill Cowher (2 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bud Grant (5 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowl) Joe Gibbs (4 Conference Championship, 3 Super Bowl) Sean Payton (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) John Harbaugh (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Marty Schottenheimer (0 Conference Championship, 0 Super Bowl) Mike McCarthy (1 Conference Championship, 1 Super Bowl) Bill Walsh (3 Conference Championship, 3 Super Bowl) Tom Landry (5 Conference Championship, 2 Super Bowl) What's the median on that group? 1 Conference Championship and 1 Super Bowl? You're making the argument that we have a coach who is 1 of 22 coaches in the 60-year era of the Super Bowl with a .600 or better record, and you think it is worth moving on from that guy because, at the moment, in a given season he is 1-2 wins off of his peers? I'm not saying that McDermott doesn't have to stiffen up and win the big one, but all you're showing me here is he's way closer to being one of THE GREATEST EVER than he is to being let go. You realize that right? That when McDermott wins a Super Bowl, he's going to be on pace to be one of the greatest coaches in the history of the National Football League. @GunnerBill has said it upthread, McDermott would get scooped up as fast as Andy Reid did and instantly make his new team a contender. You're continuing to help illustrate why the mindset of "Championship or Bust" is silly. These kinds of coaches don't grow on trees - you're pointing to Marty Schottenheimer like he's the rule, when in reality he's the exception. You cannot do this with every player but considering how raw and unpredictable the outcomes for Josh Allen were as a draft prospect, it is an absolute fact that you do not have the Josh Allen that you have today without Sean McDermott. It's indisputable.

Sean Payton had 1 instance in 16 seasons in New Orleans with a future HOF QB where he won more than 1 playoff game in a given season. Matt LaFleur had a future HOF QB in GB and hasn’t won more than 1 playoff game in a given season. Kevin O’Connell lost to Daniel Jones in the Wild Card round and has never won a playoff game. Nick Sirianni has lost in the Wild Card round twice in 3 playoff appearances. Mike Vrabel who was fired by Tennessee. Jim Harbaugh… he’s not going to last. He doesn’t like the pressure and health won’t hold up. Ryans probably shouldn’t even be in that category - he has plenty to prove. So yeah, they guys with less obvious warts are… Kyle Shanahan who has never beat Andy Reid and the Chiefs, but has made it work with limited QBs. I’d take him. Sean McVay who has had a ton of success, after he upgraded from Goff to a future HOF QB. Otherwise, it’s been a pretty mixed bag. Dan Campbell who I love and would probably be the other guy I’d take over McDermott on that list. Thanks for making me narrow down the group and help further my point. 3/55 hires so about 6% of the hires I’d take over McDermott and about 2% of the candidate pool over the past 7 seasons. I should I also probably point out that only 1 of those non-McDermott coaches (Vrabel) was in the AFC competing with Belichick and Reid. Who ended Vrabel’s improbably playoff run in 2019? Oh yeah, Mahomes and Reid. Payton and Harbaugh are there now, so we’ll see what happens in the AFC West moving forward. Our ceiling is plenty high, arguably higher than any non Reid/Mahomes combo in the league, but that is the point fans get wrong. It’s about the floor in any given year - you need to get to the dance. Once you’re there it’s somewhat unpredictable. By firing McDermott you’re advocating for what would likely be a Doug Pederson, Zac Taylor, Doug Marrone, Mike Vrabel type hot streak in the playoffs that propels you close to a championship. The problem is those guys are extremely volatile (low floor) and you have an even greater chance of missing the dance all together. Has nobody paid attention to what the Chiefs have done/been doing the past 3 seasons? Floor is high, they get to the dance and grind it out.

I am going to disagree with you pretty strongly on this point, the cupboard is quite bare when it comes to finding coaching talent. If it were easy and quality candidates were hanging off trees, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. There have been 55 head coach changes (bolded) dating back to 2017 when McDermott was hired. By my count, only 128 unique individuals have interviewed for those roles. How many names on this list inspire confidence? Sean McDermott Harold Goodwin Frank Reich* Kris Richard Vance Joseph Anthony Lynn Kyle Shanahan Dave Toub Doug Marrone Tom Coughlin Chip Kelly Mike Smith Josh McDaniels Sean McVay Teryl Austin John Fassel Matt Patricia Sean Payton Steve Wilks Mike Vrabel Tom Cable Keith Armstrong John DeFilippo James Bettcher Brian Flores Jim Schwartz Pat Shurmur Mike Munchak Matt Nagy George Edwards Vic Fangio Jim Bob Cooter Winston Moss Leslie Frazier Dan Campbell Matt Rhule Steve Spagnuolo Eric Studesville Jon Gruden Bobby Johnson Tee Martin Matt LaFleur Kliff Kingsbury Jim Caldwell Adam Gase Zac Taylor Eric Bieniemy Mike McCarthy Hue Jackson Bill Lazor Todd Monken Darren Simmons Shane Waldron Freddie Kitchens Matt Eberflus Nick Sirianni Kevin Stefanski Gregg Williams Pete Carmichael Pat Fitzgerald Chuck Pagano Joe Philbin Dennis Allen Dowell Loggains Darren Rizzi Matt Campbell Bruce Arians Perry Fewell Brian Daboll Mike McDaniel Urban Meyer Greg Roman Robert Saleh Marvin Lewis Joe Judge Jason Garrett Don Martindale Ron Rivera Todd Bowles Joe Brady Nathaniel Hackett Raheem Morris Arthur Smith Darrell Bevell David Culley Josh McCown Brandon Staley Ryan Day Aaron Glenn Patrick Graham Mike Kafka Jerod Mayo Lincoln Riley Duce Staley Byron Leftwich Doug Pederson Dan Quinn Brian Callahan Jonathan Gannon Luke Getsy Kellen Moore Kevin O’Connell Joe Lombardi Lovie Smith Hines Ward Rich Bisaccia Bill O’Brien Jim Harbaugh DeMeco Ryans Thomas Brown Lou Anarumo Ejiro Evero Ken Dorsey Ben Johnson Shane Steichen Jerry Rosburg David Shaw Jeff Saturday Bubba Ventrone Brian Johnson Mike Macdonald Antonio Pierce Bobby Slowik Anthony Weaver Dave Canales Frank Smith Chris Tabor Giff Smith By my count, there are 12 Head Coaches there that inspire some level of confidence: Sean McDermott Sean McVay Kyle Shannahan Sean Payton Mike Vrabel (Unemployed) Dan Campbell Matt LaFleur Nick Sirianni Bruce Arians (Retired) Kevin O’Connell Jim Harbaugh DeMeco Ryans That’s 22% of all hires dating back to 2017 and less than 10% of all interview candidates.

It's just really hard to follow along with this. McDermott isn't Andy Reid or Bill Belichick, so let's fire him? The guys who are #3 and #4 all time in wins in NFL history. There have been 7 Super Bowls since McDermott became the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, Reid and Belichick have represented the AFC in 6/7 and have won 4/7. The likelihood that we find the next Reid or Belichick is so small. If we're lucky we end up with Zac Taylor or Doug Pederson... someone who catches lightning in a bottle, but hopefully we don't end up with the version of a Taylor/Pederson type who severely under performs in the regular season and misses a chance at the dance all together - you know, like the version of them that shows up more often than not. AFC Andy Reid (4 appearances, 3 wins) Bill Belichick (2 appearances, 1 win) Zac Taylor (1 appearance, 0 wins) NFC Sean McVay (2 appearances, 1 win) Doug Pederson (1 appearance, 1 win) Bruce Arians (1 appearance, 1 win) Kyle Shanahan (2 appearances, 0 wins) Nick Sirianni (1 appearance, 0 wins) McDermott has been impeded directly by Belichick and Reid - he had to play in the same division as Belichick and Reid's Chiefs have eliminated the Bills 3 out of the last 4 seasons. It's going to take some breaks to get there and "win one Championship" when you're going against arguably the greatest ever each season. Out of the remainder of those Conference Champion caliber coaches, who would people most want? McVay and Shannahan? I would be thrilled to have someone like McVay or Shanahan, as I view them as the next closest tier down from Belichick and Reid over the last decade. The problem is they haven't been very good at taking down Belichick and (more importantly) Reid either. McVay vs Belichick and Reid (2-2) 11/19/2018 Rams beat Chiefs 54-51 2/3/2019 Patriots beat Rams 13-3 (Super Bowl) 12/10/2020 Rams beat Patriots 24-3 11/27/2022 Chiefs beats Rams 26-10 Shanahan vs Belichick and Reid (1-5) 9/23/2018 Chiefs beat 49ers 38-27 2/2/2020 Chiefs beat 49ers 31-20 (Super Bowl) 10/25/2020 49ers beat Patriots 33-6 10/23/2022 Chiefs beat 49ers 44-23 2/11/2024 Chiefs beat 49ers 25-22 (Super Bowl) 10/20/2024 Chiefs beat 49ers 28-18 They're 3-7 combined and 0-3 in the playoffs. For comparison sake... McDermott vs Belichick and Reid (12-12) 7-8 vs Belichick (1-0 in the playoffs) 5-4 vs Reid (0-3 in the playoffs) 12-12 and 1-3 in the playoffs. There are FAR MORE guys like Zac Taylor and Doug Pederson than there are Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. Then there are FAR MORE guys who are worse than Zac Taylor and Doug Pederson. I feel like I'm being pretty objective here when I say that Sean McDermott is a better coach than Zac Taylor or Doug Pederson, and seeing that head coach hiring is an imperfect science, tells me it's more likely we get a Zac Taylor/Doug Pederson type... and maybe even worse. BONUS: As I stated above, I think McVay and Shanahan are in that next tier behind Belichick and Reid this decade. I also believe that McDermott is in that same tier, as he has played in the much more challenging conference. McDermott is currently 4-0 when matched up against McVay and Shanahan and he gets a crack at McVay again this weekend.

This is a serious post, can someone who advocates for the Bills to move on from McDermott please walk me through step-by-step how they’d go about replacing him and who they’d replace him with?

@Matt_In_NH Watch Lamar chop his feet here to juke… it just happens to look different because he’s 3 inches shorter, 50 pounds lighter and more athletic. For contrast, here is the infamous Kenny Pickett fake slide. He puts himself in a different position, he drops his back leg and starts to make like he’s driving his ass cheek into the ground. He drags that bag leg almost like a “duck walk” in wrestling… no short and choppy steps in an attempt to change direction.

His right leg is planted in the ground and he’s pushing himself to move to his left. How the ***** is he supposed to slide in that position? He would literally have to fall on his side. He does the exact same move here in college. It happens twice in this clip, do you believe he was attempting to slide twice behind the LOS? EDIT: He is sliding!!

Thanks for adding that - I didn’t check PFR. I was just going off of what I observed in the video. By my untrained eye, he starts to break down at the 47 and Shaair is at the 41.

Yeah, I guess I wasn’t clear. I think the punishment matches the crime, I was more so saying it feels like they don’t normally suspend players for this long.

Yeah, I don’t see it. Lawrence is lowering himself to the ground. Allen just planted his right leg and is changing direction after chopping his feet to make an attempt to change direction. You don’t chop your feet to slide lol

Lawrence started his slide late? He started his slide at the 47 yard line and Al-Shaair was on the 41. Al-Shaair was standing up when Lawrence was starting to go down and then he decided the best thing to do was launch himself with his head and forearm leading? The point is, Lawrence is down where he begins his slide… which was 6 yards away from where Al-Shaair was standing. Well short of the marker - there was literally no reason for the player to do that. EDIT: Here is where Lawrence starts his slide, which by rule, is where he is down. Al-Shaair is the guy by himself standing on the 0 of the 40 yard line.

When was the last time the league suspended someone like this? 3 games feels like a lot.

It’s like the Viking team that beat us in 2022. It took a crazy circumstances to beat us 33-30 in over time. They 13-4 and 11 of those wins were by 1 score. They lost to Daniel Jones and the Giants in the Wild Card round.

If I am a GM that isn’t aligned with the coaching staff, then yeah, I’m only drafting guys who have significant experience starting in college. If there is synergy between the scouts and coaches, I’m more than happy to take swings at the guys who a little more raw with more upside. I don’t think either strategy is wrong, you just have to have a vision and stick to it.

Man = Bad vs Josh Allen

We’ll be seeing Emmanuel Forbes this week. He’ll be on the field for the Rams against us. Claimed today.

Lmao, she was so critical of the organization the past two off-seasons.

Wore my Josh Allen Chicken Wing Hawaiian shirt to the game… it’s now 10-0 on the season.

Sick! Josh had what, 7 yards (after contact) to get up to speed? The whole argument is that he lost a step… pulled up a play from a similar(ish) distance from 5 years ago and the one from yesterday. If I can find his max speed from a longer run this year, we can compare it to his 52-yard TD run against Pittsburgh in January when he reached 19.33 MPH. Which is what he was doing in 2018 and 2019 from longer distances… there were a few 20 MPH in there.

*****kkkkk you’re right @BringBackFergy He was only running 9.70 MPH yesterday and then juiced it up to 16.61. That tortoise. Back in 2019 he was running way faster from further away! He even had a clean field and sunny skies!

Seems like he wants it to be this way - wants to honor the past while moving into the future.