DabillsDaBillsDaBills

As we had used our 3rd timeout there's no realistic chance at another FG in the event of a bad snap. That would require a Bills recovery and then throw the ball away without taking an intentional grounding penalty, or running the ball out of bounds. As there wouldn't be any eligible receivers downfield, that means we would have to 1) recover the fumble 2) run outside the tackle box 3) throw it past the line of scrimmage. If we tried running it out there's the risk of the clock hitting 0 I'd be surprised if an NFL team has ever had a bad snap with <10 seconds left, with no timeouts, and was able to get another attempt at a FG. The decision to take the timeout with 7 seconds was the wrong one. I don't think it's much of an argument either.

The first half is about the plays I highlighted earlier in the drive, and not the end of the drive. We let ~30 seconds run off the clock on 2 separate plays leaving us with a 1st and 10 from DET 36 with 32 seconds left. Had we used our TOs earlier we would've had over a minute to work with. Instead we let too much time off the clock and had to resort to taking low % shots at the end zone before settling for a FG.

7 seconds Pros: If the Bills commit a holding penalty (or other non pre-snap violation) on a made FG there's enough time to attempt a longer FG Cons: Enough time for the Lions to attempt a hail mary if the Bills miss the kick or fumble the snap (recovered by DET) Enough time for the Lions to return a kickoff if the Bills make the kick 3 seconds Pros: Eliminates the small risk of a Lions miracle TD on a kickoff return/hail mary Cons: Bills can't get a 2nd FG attempt from farther out if they commit a penalty on a made kick Given that it was a tie game I think 3 seconds is clearly the correct call. The 'worst case' scenario for 7 seconds is the Bills lose the game in regulation. The 'worst case' scenario for 3 seconds is the game goes to OT.

I thought our time management was really bad at the end of the 1st half, and mildly bad at the end of the 2nd half. We had 2 timeouts for this sequence at the end of the first half and didn't use one. Too much time came off the clock and really hurt out chances of getting a TD (at least we got a FG). 1st & 10 at BUF 25 (1:52 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to I.McKenzie to DET 48 for 27 yards (J.Jacobs). 1st & 10 at DET 48 (1:24 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to S.Diggs. Ball thrown away. 2nd & 10 at DET 48 (1:20 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles up the middle to DET 43 for 5 yards (C.Board). 3rd & 5 at DET 43 (0:52 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to S.Diggs to DET 36 for 7 yards (A.Anzalone). 1st & 10 at DET 36 (0:32 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep right. ball thrown away. In the 2nd half we panicked after the last play and took the timeout with 7 seconds remaining. We should have waited for ~3 seconds so the FG attempt is the last play of the game. Sure, the odds aren't great that the Lions would score on a kickoff return, but it's not 0% (like it would be if we had waited on the TO).

Same here. Guess it's karma for this one

Just an eye test on my part. The ones that stood out were INTs in the Jets and Vikings game. At the very least Gabe and Josh were not on the same page.

Gabe's receptions, yards, and TDs are mostly a result of playing in a pass-happy offense with Josh Allen at QB. He's near the bottom of the league in drop percentage and catches per targets. He's also run wrong routes that resulted in multiple INTs He's taken a pretty big step back this season even if his initial stats look fine.

It landed at about the 15 and slowly bounced into the EZ. I'm curious how it would be ruled now.

Ah yes... the EJ Manuel / Cardale Jones with Anthony Lynn as Head Coach game. Feels like a fever dream now looking back

If we're looking at this purely from a struggle/problem standpoint I agree with your ratings, but to me one of the defining characteristics of the butt fumble is the humor of it. If we're looking at humor I would move Losman fumble to #1. The play is straight chaos and is hilarious to watch (unless you're a Bills fan). The way Losman tries to throw the ball looks funny, then the ball starts bouncing like crazy (multiple attempts to corral it fail). A ref gets completely trucked. Then the Jets guy dives into the end zone. Bonus points for Jason "hall of fame" Peters with the 100% whiff on the block leading to the whole thing.

In addition to the drops and low catch %, let's not forget running the wrong routes that resulted in INTs.

The Vikings have a FOUR game lead in their division and 2.5 game lead on the last WC spot (drops to 2 if SF wins tonight). They could go winless the rest of the year and still have a good chance at making the playoffs. Their division is that bad. There's a 99%+ chance they make the playoffs. Now if you want to say they aren't as good as their record indicates and will get bounced in the first round? That's something I can get behind

The Browns loss to the Jets in week 2 was an epic choke job. Dare I say even worse than the Bills loss to the Vikings

We're giving up 0.7 more yards per carry AFTER CONTACT than the league average. When league average is 3.0 that's actually a pretty significant 23% difference. I think it's fair to say our team has a tackling problem in the run game. Even though, overall, we're still pretty good against the run.

I can be skeptical of some of these advanced stat type charts, but this one I can believe 100%. The Bills DEF is incredible at getting to RBs early, and terrible at actually tackling them. Can't count how many times we hit an RB in the backfield for what should be a 3 yard loss, and the RB turns it into a 3 yard gain. Or how often a LB (cough *Edmunds* cough) gets piggybacked to turn a 3 yard gain into an 8 yard gain. Overall we're still pretty good against the run, but we could be so much better if guys made tackles

I disagree with the 1-7 assessment and think it's a pretty poor analysis to just look at which side of the team had the ball last and say they were the clutch or not clutch unit. The Jets game for example. Our last defensive possession we allowed the Jets to go on a game-winning 86 yard FG drive that chewed up 6 minutes, all 3 timeouts, and the 2 minute warning. Sure, the offense had the ball last and had enough time to potentially tie or take the lead and did not. NEITHER unit was clutch, and if I'm portioning blame I'd say the DEF was less clutch than the OFF. The Chiefs game I would say both units were clutch. The OFF scored the go-ahead TD with <2 minutes left. Then the DEF seals it with a turnover.

Not sure if Morse deserves one, his "ninja" snap could've been disastrous, and I think contributed a lot to the slow start.

McDermott has three seasons of double digit wins. We went 9-7 his first year that broke the drought. Undeniably the best coach we've had since Marv. Is he good enough to win a SB ? I guess we'll see. I think it's pretty concerning he has a top 3 QB on a rookie contract and hasn't made the SB yet.

The timeline here seems wonky to me. The incidents that would've caused the most drama over vaxx debate happened in the offseason (Beane's interview where he would take a vaxxed player over an unvaxxed) or early during the season (Beasley's twitter escapades and complaining about booing from Bills fans happened by early October). Why would vaxx issues suddenly bubble over in the middle of the season ?

I don't think Edmunds had a bad game by any means, but rating him as the best defensive performance of the week is classic PFF garbage. For what it's worth Alex Highsmith was named AFC defensive player of the week

They're still practicing, it's just not a normal practice. Matthew Bové · Nov 16, 2022@Matt_Bove · Follow The Bills have a ton of players sick. McDermott said illness, but said non COVID. Today they’ll only be able to practice with individual drills because they don’t have enough bodies to run a normal practice.

A guy that played for 1 half and dropped an easy INT was the best defender in the league ? Color me skeptical I thought he had a decent game. Couple nice pass breakups and generally a good job in coverage. He did drop that INT though. I'm not buying the narrative that the DEF did so much worse with Edmunds out. Vikings offense scored 10 points in the 1st half (Edmunds playing). Vikings offense scored 13 points in the 2nd half (Edmunds not playing). And as far as a sample size of our DEF playing with or without Edmunds. The only game he missed this year was against the Steelers. I don't think we missed him that game.

I'd be pretty surprised if the 1-7-1 Texans don't finish dead last. I agree- Hughes looked pretty old and done in Buffalo the past few seasons. I never would've guessed he would have 8 sacks halfway through the season

The 4th and 2 decision to go for it wasn't a bad one. The win probability of going for it vs taking the FG was a <1% difference. Imagine the uproar here if we take the FG and the Vikings go on to score 2 TDs and win by 1. The few play calls leading up to that 4th down were concerning, as was our disappearing run game in the 2nd half. I'm not sure how much of that is on the offense play-calling being aggressive, or how much of it is because we CAN'T run the ball as our O-Line is TERRIBLE.

1-4 in 2017 we beat the 3-10 Colts in the snow game in OT. Insanely lucky to get the win when we punted with 4 minutes left in OT. Since then we've lost to the Texans (playoff game), Bucs, Chiefs (playoff game), and now Vikings. Edit to add coin flips: We won the flip vs Colts and Bucs.