SCBills

Incredibly interesting stuff here..

GA/NC, sure. SC, no. South Carolina has been one of the fastest growing states in the country in recent years, with Greenville & Charleston exploding in population. Both cities now have Republican Mayors, with Charleston ousting their incumbent Democrat Mayor. I have a place in Georgia, as well as South Carolina. Georgia has a heavy influx of Indian population in the suburbs who vote Dem for some reason and a lot of the transplants move for work, so it’s a mixed bag. South Carolina is exploding in population with two cities and coastal living, but its a lot more of elective relocation than it is career driven.. as in GA/NC. This aligns more with Florida, which has become ruby red under DeSantis, with elective relocations from NY/NJ etc The people moving from the north to the south as an elective relocation tend to be super conservative.

For those who don’t exactly love following polling, you can also follow where campaigns are going and where they are spending. To be noted, the Trump campaign is even/out-spending in GA/NC.. two places he really shouldn’t have to be doing that - but obviously, as of now, is.

They’re not dating. They’ll entertain situationships with men around their age or younger, but those men are never going to date/marry them. It’s dark out there for women as they approach 40. Online dating and hookup culture has destroyed millennials & gen z. Many men have opted out. The same 5-10% of men get swiped on by 80-90% of women. The top 10-20% of women look for money/status, because they have an army of simps at their disposal and will look for a unicorn, when they’re ready.. until years pass and now they’re 35. Which leaves the next 50-80% of women being in, again, situationships with the top 10% of men who are talking to them, while looking for a unicorn woman 5-10 years younger than them and/or more attractive (the top 10-20% of women). And because that 50-80% range of women are sleeping with guys out of their league, who will never date them, those men aren’t settling down bc they keep looking for something better and those women, who should be settling down with men in their league, now have unrealistic expectations. I probably sound like a prick saying this.. but it’s 100% what’s happening for the majority of folks in the modern dating world. This leads to men becoming lazy, unmotivated and resigned to what life has become for them because they don’t have the primal urge of pushing themselves to get a woman, keep that woman, protect & provide for that woman. It empowers women, who have taken advantage, but only temporarily.. as they eventually reach an age where their looks fade and they start to realize the men they are attracted to, want women 10 years younger who aren’t career driven & can give them a potential child/children. See my post above I’ve been in it. Dating someone now .. but spent years of my life doing all of this. It’s mainly empty recreational sex for those of us who can get matches .. and it’s mentally exhausting .. and truly warps one’s view of the other gender (I suspect the same occurs for women towards men).

I think our Defensive Line might be the biggest variance unit, in terms of potential, on this team. If Von is washed and Rousseau gets another random injury that turns him into a glorified edge setter all year, then we’re wildly dependent upon Oliver/Jones to get pressure on the QB. If Von is, as reports suggest, “back” and if Rousseau does make the jump everyone’s been waiting for, this DL has upper echelon potential.

The Panthers still don’t exist. I spend a good bit of time in Greenville, SC and you can’t go more than a few blocks downtown on Fall/Winter weekend without seeing Bills gear.

Yeesh.. politics are absolute blood sport.

The machine selected Kamala Harris is in line with all these people. ”it could never happen here..” - says people that lived under a form of this happening by this very administration during covid.

Seeing lib propagandists label Trump’s no vote on Amendment 4 as hardcore anti-abortion reminds why I can never, ever support what the Democrat Party has become. A party rooted in aggressively evil late term abortion advocacy, mixed with censorship & pseudo open-borders.

There’s 0.0% chance we have a comprehensive deportation of illegals. Maybe once they’re caught, for whatever reason, we deport, but we will never have a round up & deportation. Inevitably there will be an image of a scared family with a kid crying being removed by law enforcement and even people who want this done in theory will start freaking out.

Seeing Shakir making the national rounds as a breakout player on plenty of lists. He definitely has some legit hype heading into this year.

What is a “pro-choice” voter? You mean single issue voters? No, they would never. He’s not trying to get them. He’s clearly making a play for suburban women that may like his policies but are turned off by his personality and “reproductive rights”.. he’s attempting to take the latter off the table. Dems just put up billboards in PA today saying that Trump will ban IVF and are all over social media today messaging on abortion and IVF. It’s the only non-character issue they have on him.

Politically speaking, as I’m pro-life and not in love with Trump’s comments yesterday.. it’s notable that D heavy hitters are out in numbers today pushing back on his newfound IVF policy and abortion comments. Looking at polling on abortion in AZ, NV, PA and MI, voters almost 3:1 want to protect abortion access, but also view Trump as better on the border & economy. If they lose the “reproductive rights” wedge, Trump might take all of those states. He does this by risking to alienate more socially conservative voters in NC & GA. But, while I don’t like it .. I think he’s making a political calculus that seems backed up by notable Dem messaging today.

Let’s say they aren’t first gen migrants and are here legally .. Isn’t this a big part of the issue over in the UK? Second generation migrants who become disillusioned with society and then we see increased crime/poverty struggles?

Democrats watching that interview…

Walking it back

Clearly Trump’s play is try and merge MAGA with disaffected Democrats on issues of censorship, war, the economy and border & then bank of trad conservatives holding their noses and voting for him when the time comes. What he did today maybe helps with disaffected Dems/Moderates in the Rust Belt but hurts him with trad conservatives in NC & GA. Trying to view it politically, that’s my best case scenario for him, but Amendment 4 is so aggressively pro-abortion that it wasn’t a risk he needed to take.

You don’t need to convince me.. im voting for him in the grounds of border security and fighting censorship. Im just telling you, this was a massive unforced error.

I get it.. but there’s a large sentiment of the conservative base that wants him gone. Hes the nominee so it’s him or Kamala. And to them 4 years of Trump / stopping 4 years of Kamala needs to be of stronger appeal than ridding him entirely by another election loss so we can usher in Youngkin or DeSantis and not have to deal with JD Vance / Vivek MAGA continuance. They’ve put up with his garbage personality, pathetic role modeling and dragging the party left because of goodwill built up in his 4 years and the alternative being untenable to consider. When he comes out to say he’s voting yes on abortion up to birth, it finally broke them. And I don’t blame them. He can still win them back, but holy **** that’s a big screw you he just levied to pro-life evangelicals.

Trump voting yes on Amendment 4 is a massive misstep. Ive defended him taking a more pro-choice stance in this election, but this ain’t it.. and hes getting destroyed by pro-life evangelical voices on social media.. mostly women.. saying they cannot vote for him in good conscience any longer.

I don’t think Nate Silver is with 538 anymore. They use his branding but Silver has his own model now. Pretty sure he publicly said he doesn’t agree with their modeling methods this cycle.

Make sure you get those Gold Star families on record.. How dare they invite this monster to pay his respects!!!

I truly hope Jason Miller is misinformed here, because… there’s no way. 18 minutes!?