There is a bit of luck involved especially the kicking game.
The Bills have had 18/20 (90%) FGs made against them.
Meanwhile the Patriots are at 19/30 63%. Imagine kickers making 1 in their next 10 against us? That probably gets us a Super Bowl championship.
Retrospectively if the Bills had same % made against them so far, that’s 5 less field goals, which wins us the Jacksonville & first New England game.
At 11-4, the Bills would be the current #1 seed by virtue of the head to head tie break with KC.