YattaOkasan

I would disguise everything. All the time. I think they use exotic blitzes if they disguise them well (I think Rex's success doing this is well documented). On top of that I would drive the middle of the line into Brady's lap. I agree the DE and outside blitzes will not be as important because he gets the ball out so quickly. However pushing a half ton of lineman (O & D) into him should throw off his timing.

The trade happened before the draft. I still make that trade.

Merge the threads???

The legend taketh and the legend giveth. Ouch. Rough call to get. Also Julio is killing it in FF.

He OBJ'ed a ball in the endzone. It was nice. Watch sportscenter it will be in top 10 for sure.

Agreed on the colts d. While they gave up yards last year they were really good on 3rd down (I think top 5). They are certainly not incompetent.

Really, with plays like that he would be better then what their offense has now. Plus he played against the offense when he was at Oregon so he should be familiar with the concepts.

Were you unimpressed we didn't make it to the red zone enough??? Because we were 1/1 yesterday. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct/?date=2015-09-14

Gonna need at least 3-0 (with all being convincing wins) before I am sold. I've been tricked too much.

There is tape on Rex and there is tape of our players in a similar defense. I don't think Rex is pulling too many new things out of the hat. I agree that our pass rush will remain good this year, and I don't think it blind sided Luck at all. He only took 2 sacks for -3 yards. If anything I think he was as prepared as he could be.

Agree with most of what you wrote. Particularly point #1. Side note: Colts TD drive finished with <16 minutes left in the game. This also stood out to me. With the way NE couldn't keep the edge against Jennings this might be the strategy. I was talking to a NE fan (as best I could cause they don't use reason), and he was saying that they'll contain TT because Roethlisberger is a running QB. I laughed and walked away.

I know the Wiz was being sarcastic, as is his nature. I don't think anyone has a problem at all with Tyrod.

Thanks for the recap. I agree with more Karlos. I would actually love to see him and McCoy in the backfield together when we have a lead. Options up the middle to Karlos or to the outside with McCoy would be devastating.

Yeah the last one was ridiculous. Gronk just ran into the defender and then turned back to the QB. Even put his arms out like I would for a pick in basketball

It seemed to me that OC was mostly pointing out the logical fallacies of WGR's defense. I think his presentation of the PS games was as evidence to refute WGR's position thus exposing their logical fallacies because they didn't defend with evidence but with logical fallacies (I could list if you want). I agree with others that the #2/#3 roles seem to be misleading. I would expect Cassel to step in if TT is injured during the game, but then EJ to start the next game.

I also don't like the Pats against the good receiving of the Giants and the up tempo Chip Kelly offense. They could beat the Giants because the Gmen don't have a great defense, but I think OBJ and Cruz will have a monster day. Also agree Titans and Redskin losses are wack predictions.

I think both the back shoulder and the double move are stopped by a safety over the top. If Darby has someone over the top I expect him to bite on everything back to the QB. The back shoulder will be played aggressively. He will get burned on the double move but there should be a safety there. I don't really like the Graham vs TY or Andre Johnson matchup either so if were gonna roll safety help anyway then let's just use the quick corner (Darby) on the quick wide out (TY) with safety help over the top. Outside of that, I expect Darby to be moved around a lot. Either he blitzes/defense blitzes from his side and he plays deep/exotic blitzes where he ends up in the middle of the field. Anything and everything to make picking on him difficult.

I like this with a twins (Watkins and Woods) on the wide side of the field. Now you can run to the short side if they don't have numbers there or you could option roll out to the wide side if they don't have numbers there. Roman is all about point of attack and I can see him employing something like this. Really is a tailback, full back, w/ a TE opposite any different then a wing-T. I expect to see this latter formation a lot.

In response to what else might they do: Blitz him some when there is only one receiver on his side. With safety over the top help I would guess he is told to be aggressive on the short routes. This could actually be huge because he is so quick. They could blitz from his side to force Luck to roll away from pressure. They could do some crazy zone blitzes where he sinks to the middle and a LB covers the flat with safety over the top. Basically they will move him a lot. He's a concern but I think Rex has been fine with less.

However, we don't see a big difference in actual record vs pythag record (0.6) in the same year. That tells me we didn't get overly lucky or overly unlucky. So why does he think we should regress?

What did his formula say we would do this year? I think I missed it unless its the 9.6 number at the top. Edit: I did minimal digging and found a calculator http://www.had2know.com/sports/pythagorean-expectation-win-percentage-baseball.html Using 16 games, 2014 points scored (343), and 2014 points allowed (289) from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2014.htm I got 9 wins. The part I don't get is if my dataset is last year how do you not project 9 wins this year. I can understand some asymmetry for your predicted result but I think +1 and -5 requires a bit more explaining than he does. Models are great guides and I would use this one to say: The bills were good last year. I think they got better this year (I know I'm a fan but seriously we did upgrade almost everywhere). I will not have too much asymmetry in my results. Let's say +2 and -3 Best case scenario everything clicks and they are 11-5. Maybe they do some damage in the postseason Worst case scenario: Offense doesn't click and Defense regresses, 6-10. I wouldn't call that basement dwellers. I also think that's a more reasonable approach with a bit more grounding in the model. Let me know if I'm misunderstanding this.

Some coaches isn't even Roman to me. I think as you say about Rex. The media wouldn't say some coaches; they would say Roman.

I want to give TD Taylor some time but 8 games is a lot. We pulled EJ after 4 games and the majority didn't seem to upset about not giving him 8 games. I went with whenever I damn well please, but maybe add another button for 4 games

Got my vote. Hope he proves worthy of it. Love the new avatar

Understandable post and thanks for the insight. Sorry I took your words wrong. I would still like to see some data on moving the chains. I would probably have to think about this metric though before I go looking for data; I think first downs per drive would be what I'm looking for. I can understand not doing the research. It can take a ton of time to find what you're looking for and some times the data isn't even available. So very understandable that you wouldn't want to dig for it. Thanks again for the insight into your thinking. I think we agree on what it takes to have success, but have differences on evaluation is all.