YattaOkasan

It seemed to me that OC was mostly pointing out the logical fallacies of WGR's defense. I think his presentation of the PS games was as evidence to refute WGR's position thus exposing their logical fallacies because they didn't defend with evidence but with logical fallacies (I could list if you want). I agree with others that the #2/#3 roles seem to be misleading. I would expect Cassel to step in if TT is injured during the game, but then EJ to start the next game.

I also don't like the Pats against the good receiving of the Giants and the up tempo Chip Kelly offense. They could beat the Giants because the Gmen don't have a great defense, but I think OBJ and Cruz will have a monster day. Also agree Titans and Redskin losses are wack predictions.

I think both the back shoulder and the double move are stopped by a safety over the top. If Darby has someone over the top I expect him to bite on everything back to the QB. The back shoulder will be played aggressively. He will get burned on the double move but there should be a safety there. I don't really like the Graham vs TY or Andre Johnson matchup either so if were gonna roll safety help anyway then let's just use the quick corner (Darby) on the quick wide out (TY) with safety help over the top. Outside of that, I expect Darby to be moved around a lot. Either he blitzes/defense blitzes from his side and he plays deep/exotic blitzes where he ends up in the middle of the field. Anything and everything to make picking on him difficult.

I like this with a twins (Watkins and Woods) on the wide side of the field. Now you can run to the short side if they don't have numbers there or you could option roll out to the wide side if they don't have numbers there. Roman is all about point of attack and I can see him employing something like this. Really is a tailback, full back, w/ a TE opposite any different then a wing-T. I expect to see this latter formation a lot.

In response to what else might they do: Blitz him some when there is only one receiver on his side. With safety over the top help I would guess he is told to be aggressive on the short routes. This could actually be huge because he is so quick. They could blitz from his side to force Luck to roll away from pressure. They could do some crazy zone blitzes where he sinks to the middle and a LB covers the flat with safety over the top. Basically they will move him a lot. He's a concern but I think Rex has been fine with less.

However, we don't see a big difference in actual record vs pythag record (0.6) in the same year. That tells me we didn't get overly lucky or overly unlucky. So why does he think we should regress?

What did his formula say we would do this year? I think I missed it unless its the 9.6 number at the top. Edit: I did minimal digging and found a calculator http://www.had2know.com/sports/pythagorean-expectation-win-percentage-baseball.html Using 16 games, 2014 points scored (343), and 2014 points allowed (289) from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2014.htm I got 9 wins. The part I don't get is if my dataset is last year how do you not project 9 wins this year. I can understand some asymmetry for your predicted result but I think +1 and -5 requires a bit more explaining than he does. Models are great guides and I would use this one to say: The bills were good last year. I think they got better this year (I know I'm a fan but seriously we did upgrade almost everywhere). I will not have too much asymmetry in my results. Let's say +2 and -3 Best case scenario everything clicks and they are 11-5. Maybe they do some damage in the postseason Worst case scenario: Offense doesn't click and Defense regresses, 6-10. I wouldn't call that basement dwellers. I also think that's a more reasonable approach with a bit more grounding in the model. Let me know if I'm misunderstanding this.

Some coaches isn't even Roman to me. I think as you say about Rex. The media wouldn't say some coaches; they would say Roman.

I want to give TD Taylor some time but 8 games is a lot. We pulled EJ after 4 games and the majority didn't seem to upset about not giving him 8 games. I went with whenever I damn well please, but maybe add another button for 4 games

Got my vote. Hope he proves worthy of it. Love the new avatar

Understandable post and thanks for the insight. Sorry I took your words wrong. I would still like to see some data on moving the chains. I would probably have to think about this metric though before I go looking for data; I think first downs per drive would be what I'm looking for. I can understand not doing the research. It can take a ton of time to find what you're looking for and some times the data isn't even available. So very understandable that you wouldn't want to dig for it. Thanks again for the insight into your thinking. I think we agree on what it takes to have success, but have differences on evaluation is all.

I read the initial post, but didn't go through the thread. I can understand you want to view each series individually. I think context is important too. However, you wanted to say EJ had more 3 and outs than the other QBs (correct me if I'm wrong). I agree this would be an important consideration, but I need to see some data. I know he has had more 3 and outs this preseason, but I think the original request for data was if EJ had 3 and outs at a higher rate than average during the last two seasons. I honestly don't know and would be interested (my guess is yes because our offense hasn't been great). I can get on board with the idea that Tyrod can lead to fewer 3 and outs because he will have 3rd and manageables (because of his legs) an above average amount of the time. I also can get on board with EJ having 3rd and manageables an above average amount of the time. The thought being that EJ can stretch a defense which would allow more running room. However, all I have is conjecture without data. I'm not so interested in how you make judgements about football as I am in about how I make judgements about football. To do that I wanted some data (you had/have a chance to convince me). If you don't provide data it won't be the end of the world but your argument is much less convincing.

So.... no data then...just opinion?

I think its more that the offenses they played in 6 divisional games were terrible.

Yolo brought up a good point earlier too. That happened mid-game. This time we know Dareus will be out so we can game plan.

I thought at the beginning of TC that they would all be mediocre, and no oone would separate. Now at the end they have all played well, and no one has separated. I have been pleasantly surprised, but I really just want a TD from the first team offense now.

I was thinking a throw behind his head that he had to adjust and lean back for. It can be both catchable and inaccurate.

Thanks for the response. I was just having trouble figuring some of your logic out, but that explains the trouble I was having. Also wouldn't say I'm BF4E's friend.

What I saw from Thigpen at RB against Cleveland did not inspire any confidence. I don't think he would serviceable. I think 1 FB and 4 RBs is necessary, and while he is our best punt returner, I think it is wiser to replace Thigpen at PR then try to put Thigpen at RB for any amount of time.

Too hard to do with the roster limits. I think one would have to be inactive on game day.

Who said Rex liked Rocky Road in another thread. Misinformed Idiots!!!!

I guess I could get on board with the first. But that's about the only conceivable package I can think of.

looks like TT is the second QB in with the 1s

How long before this becomes a QB thread? Under: Corey Graham Over: Harvin (over paid at least)

Can you remind me your stance on what you would like the FO to do with EJ? I still have some logic issues with trying to determine if EJ will be "decent"