YattaOkasan

So not going to address my points... They are a good to very good pass defense (even without Gilmore). Th teams that have hung 30+ on them did it on the ground (were at least 28 if we can catch one ball). Keep up the crusade to pass more while the data says running was the correct choice.

So only Seattle and San Fran hung 30 on them, and both those teams ran for 150+ yards. They havent given up 300+ yards passing on the year (even to Seattle and KC). Expecting us to be slinging it all over was just not realistic.

The Pats game wasn't exciting enough? I almost had a heart attack. Also to a previous post, do you really think our offense's decision to run the ball almost cost us that game and not the defense's inability to stop them on a pair of drives in the 2nd half?

One of my favorite moments of the season. Josh in the close up because it’s a critical 3rd down and he yells “Gold whip” twice. I’ve been watching close this season and I jumped out of my seat. Told my brother in law that a WR screen was coming and it’s gonna be good. When they went to the wide angle I found Brown right away and then boom sauce. That was a lot of fun.

Gambling was the game plan i think. We knew it was gonna be a shoot out so we stayed aggressive to try and get the TOs (they did too I’ll note). It’s an interesting tactic in a battle with two high powered offenses. I would like to see it again if/when we come across the chiefs again.

Yeah super tough. Just hang around the board near the end of the game and well see what happens. I think its much more likely were in the situation down more than FG (but less than a TD) under a minute and getting the ball.

Cool. What are the stakes then? I am very happy to take this bet.

Probably gonna be lots of Dime anyway, but 5 1 5 works for a nickel. Also Darron Lee is def getting one of the 2 PS call ups this week. They have not been shy about using those guys in games. I suspect we see a lot of Darron Lee this week considering its more pass happy Hawks team (even though they can still run the ball). Being variable could be a sneaky advantage in this game if we dont shoot ourselves in the foot with it.

you think they can score 7 in 45 seconds with no time outs? Are you on the game day thread cause i will happily make that bet.

Not my term but yeah it’s definitely strange. Is there a better term that’s as simple?

Cover 1 guys agreed on the pregame show. Sugar the A gaps all the time and every once in awhile bring the heat. As @Hapless Bills Fan mentioned though the tackling has to be sure which it hasn’t always been for us (luckily Klein is blitzing in this scenario).

Yup. This tells me there is a bit of money on the Bills side right? I dont think its an average person betting the Bills so I do think the line is encouraging.

Doesnt this support my point though. We can stop the run or the pass but not both imo. We have basically chosen to stop the pass for most games resulting in us getting gashed on the ground. I do agree we miss Star we could better defend the run on early downs with him. I think we do better (relative to the average) on 3rd/4th and short than 3rd and long which suggests its scheme choice to me (I am looking for stats to verify this thought).

They must be better than Josh Jacobs and Derek Henry who we held in check. Bills have shown they can stop the run. If anything I was most surprised how they got gashed in the second half of that game. Bills D looks to be able to stop 1 thing run or pass but not both.

Great post. I would say Allen MVP and biggest mistake is the Klein signing are my only disagreements (but you do acknowledge Allen). But great read.

And he did it with his eyes closed! To another post Feliciano is the reason we had more success running, though Boettger is a better run blocker than pass blocker to my eyes.

His hand fighting really is good. The leverage and power does make some sense for even some of his struggles in college. I do think hes going to be a long time contributor.

This could definitely happen but I think us getting a lead early is almost as likely. I think we maybe able to do some damage early (particularly if we could get a TO) that will result in a heavy Moss/Singeltary game (though that hasnt happened all year yet). I agree this could definitely be a tough game but I dont think this is the same team as the Seattle game. I also think that game was close because the Hawks spotted them a TD and have a historically bad defense. To your point that they will play us tough the Hawks game was a good example of them getting a lead early on and just trying to hold on. I worry most about us getting behind early because they are playing super tough and Bellicheck confuses Josh early.

That there season is over if they dont win is my only concern about this game. On the flip side I think our guys will know we will be in a difficult spot if we dont win so they should be hungry too. If we get > 7 pt lead in the first half I dont think theyll have enough to come back.

Sorry was poking fun at the evil genius that we always make the hoodie seem. I get that were a little unsure about our team but I think that’s the BBFS. I feel we had a good get right game against the Jets even if it wasn’t a blow out. I am more than hopeful for this game. I am expecting a W and I think we’ve gotten that every time this year we could expect it. We still have things to figure out but Patriots have a lot more.

Isn’t this a lot harder to do with the covid rules. He wouldn’t even get in their building til after the game. Plus you would probably wanna digest the info a little which makes the game planning tough. I know the hoodie has done us wrong for years but it’ll be ok.

Punter didn’t get many reps But that’s another good thing.

K. If you think throwing with a >90% WP is not being conservative then I suggest we start thinking of McD as aggressive this year. Would agree with previous years we would be conservative.

So you want revenge for that? I just want a W so they can sit at 2-5. I found a win probability chart from 2008. Up 2 scores in the 4th and you have a 90% WP. That seems significant to me that youre gonna win. I think your 5 min cut off is arbitrary (unless your willing to include smaller leads, i.e. the Dolphins game). http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/08/win-probability.html

So historically 8 minutes (@ the start of the drive) with a 2 score lead is a run the ball time from what i have seen from conservative coaches. I guess we need some data on play selection < 5 min with a 2 score lead. I dont think any coaches are throwing there cause the game is over if you run the ball (an onsides will be needed there). So your gripe is about play selection <5 min with a 2 score lead. Talk about inconsequential. The outcome of the game is significantly assured if you have the ball with <8 minutes and a 2 score lead btw.