YattaOkasan

I would put the Denver game up there too for Josh. Conditions were miserable but he was still 60% and we kept a good lead most of the game. As I mentioned Steelers on the road would’ve been good if not for a few drops. back to the original point I do think the offense got better as the season progressed and I don’t really see the case against it. The giants game is about the only example to me. Conversely I think two games of improvement against divisional opponents on the road shows why they did improve. Do you think If we replaced our first three games with Denver Steelers and Dallas we would’ve won? I really think the schedule makers did us a solid last year.

Fair that 1st half against the Giants was good (forgot how good) but second half was bad. As to the offense not getting better that ludicrous. 2 of the first 3 weeks were that ridiculous jets game and the Cincinnati game. Dallas was a not bad def and we ate their turkey. Against the Steelers we had costly turnovers (interception off beasleys hands and singeltary fumble) in Pitt territory. Hell look at our divisional games. We struggled with Mia at home and we smoked them the second time on the road. We played the patriots better the second time again in the road. So I think it clearly got better. Agree though that we were fortunate to have a cup cake schedule particularly early in the season. Not sure we beat Dallas or Pitt if we play them early in the year.

3 of those 4 games came early in the season when we were still working our offense out. Our first three game of offense was terrible but isn’t it common knowledge that the first weeks of the season have the weirdest results. I wouldn’t say we took the whole game to put Mia away as we took a lead we wouldn’t relinquish with ~1 min into the 4th quarter (we just played super bad in the first half). lastly the Steelers game was a comedy of errors on offense. I recommend the cover 1 breakdown.

Honestly I expect a lot of empty packages from 11 personnel in the coming year. Will be interesting to see if Gabe Davis gets some run in 11 personnel. I think with his bigger size you could have a pretty good package for running against a nickel package.

Thanks! Sorta a cop out to "watch" out for the chiefs when the were already so good (tied for best YPA). I do think we might have the biggest jump in production in 11 personnel.

Where did we rank in the 11 personnel? We seemed to do much better later in the season with that set. I think that personnel package can really get better with the addition of Diggs.

Current question you're talking about is if they are hiding Allen. I dont think they are, and I dont think those numbers show that they are trying to hide him. I agree those numbers are not cause for celebration. As another poster mentioned his ability to dominate at times is cause for a lot of optimism (its not just the GW drives its all his 4th quarter numbers which are very good). To your point his consistency is a big reason for concern (why he often has to come back). Based on the outside factors (drops, just fewer total throws in his career) I believe he can improve (he also showed he could get better last year). I don't think Lamar has the same success in all systems, but he is very good right now (I was very ok with him at 22 and using that draft capital to get a ton of other good talent). I do question the sustainability of Lamar's success, but unquestionably right now he is elite.

For the college part I think UND is the top tier of their division and had the surrounding talent to help Wentz out. For Wyoming Josh was really the only threat his senior year. So I would say its the ability of the surround cast: Wentz's cast >> Allen's cast relative to their competition. Also agree its put up or shut up time. If he takes the jump he did from Year 1 to Year 2 this is a really good team and hes pushing to be a top 5 QB. I suspect a smaller jump to the top 12 range (better than average versus average right now) with more playoffs coming.

I see it now. Thanks. That diff is almost certainly drop differential between Josh and the average then as I expected before but was thinking of it wrong. Thanks again. Lots of signs pointing to Josh is average which is happily where I have him.

Yes! So doesn’t that mean that Dak was helped by his line and WR And Josh was held back by his. To me based on numbers and eyes it was the drops that really hurt Joshs numbers. Someone might have the drop % relative to average but about 3% seems right. Yeah I couldn’t make sense of what did and don’t go into it exactly. I think average line and separation and bad drop numbers makes sense to me if that’s what they are saying.

Guess I’m confused. It says Josh should’ve had a higher completion percentage based on the other factors. For the QBs with a positive factor it says that their expected completion percentage was lower than actual. Pretty sure I got it correct. Other players with negative +/- (and closer to Allen than the ones you listed) are Mahomes and Jackson. Pretty sure that +/- is how mich your team helped or hindered.

I'm reading this differently. Josh is low on the expected completion percentage (29th of 39), but was one of the most negatively effected by those parameters as demonstrated in +/- (this is where he ranks 35th) which is just completion percentage - expected completion percentage (per glossary). So this means he had below average help with respect to line and separation. This better aligns with my eyes that while our line got better it was still only average and that while better our receivers didnt seem to get a ton of separation (also drops). Someone else let me know if I'm reading the link wrong.

Hahahaha you clearly don’t know how many QBs started every game. I think it’s realistic he jumps to 16-20 because in last place for the category of QBs that started 16 this year he was 13th. Dude is average and considering some we’re saying he would never amount to anything I think that’s proving doubters wrong. As bandit said the game is gonna keep slowing down for him. He wasn’t in JUCO cause he was dumb. Kid is sharp and if he can get his mechanics consistent (particularly on the deep ball) I’m confident he’ll have a great season.

Im just not sure they can replicate the turnovers they created last year. That was a huge reason they were 8-8 and I would bet on a regression to the mean there. As for when we played them, it was classic comedy of errors from our offense. Cover 1 recently did all our offensive plays against them on youtube and it was ugly pretty much across the board. You got a drop from brown that wouldve been a first but becomes 3rd and very long outside FG territory, a drop from Beasley in FG territory that becomes a pick again (his drops had to have huge EPA over the season), Frank Gore trying to bounce plays to the outside, Singeltary having super inopportune fumbles (lost one after a 20 yard run). Think there were probably some costly penalties in there too. Josh made a couple rough plays too but the plays above really hurt as it was 5 explosive play swing to them.

So you are banking on us turning the ball over that many times again. I don't see us doing that again against them.

Yeah but thats not so much them beating us as it us giving it to them.

I underlined the full offseason cause I disagree with this. Its def not a full typical offseason. Stidham will not get to throw to these guys as the starter until TC. Also I am not conviced they run the same system as last year because Stidham is not TB. I just dont see them as being able to have a good passing game at all. we put up a lot of TOs in that game. I think thats what beat us and not that stat line.

Football is not so deceptive with their signs (at least in the NFL) so I suspect if you were able to tape their signs along with all 22 film you could figure out the called formation and play from the signs on the sideline. Lets say you know your opponents CB coach likes to give a sign whenever a CB blitz is coming. You would key in on the CB coach and then know when a CB blitz is coming based on if he signals...

Taping and then stealing signs in football would get you the play in advance. Knowing a play in football is a much bigger advantage than knowing a pitch in baseball. I can appreciate needing to tie it back to the front office, but they are repeat offenders and I believe one of the folks involved in this issue was involved with the previous jets issue (along with another taping issue with another team). If there is that much experience with it then theres not an excuse to me.

The problem is its very clearly understood you can not film the sidelines of other teams. There are still a lot of hand signals on the sidelines and elsewhere so being able to key in on any coach (not just HC, OC, or DC) to understand a play would be very valuable. The Pats know the rule and thats why the Cincinnati incident ended up being confrontational between the film crew and Bengals personnel when it went down. Maybe not more severe than before but def same punishment.

I member. I dont see any weapons that scare me on offense; Ben does not scare me. Last year that game was a comedy of errors on offense (check out the cover 1 break down below). Beasley not only doesnt catch a 3rd and long; it turns into a turnover. Brown alligator armed a pretty important 2nd and long. Singletary fumbles twice (that was more Steeler D, but fumbles do have a slightly random nature). Also that was when Frank Gore running no where was really frustrating (15 yards on 10 attempts). Never said theyll be worse but I do think Cleveland will be better, and really I dont think the 3rd place spot the Jets (Browns and Colts) have will be much worse than our 2nd place spot (Steelers and Titans).

I am not so sure about Steelers. What does Ben have left in the tank....? I think the Browns are gonna be better than them this year. Colts look good although I'll admit that the Titans are better. So I agree with the assertion that there is not much difference between the 2nd and 3rd slots. Hell Pats might have it easier than both with the Texans.

My Stab @RealKayAdams, kept the rookies and had to make some hard cuts QB (2): Allen, Fromm RB (4): Singletary, Moss, Yeldon, Jones FB (1): Dimarco WR (7): Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis, Hodgins, Mckenzie, Roberts TE (3): Kroft, Knox, Sweeney OT (4): Dawkins, Ford, Nsheke, Williams IOL (5): Morse, Spain, Feliciano, Long, Bates DT (5): Oliver, Lotulelei, Jefferson, Butler, Phillips DE (4): Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Johnson OLB (3): Milano, Klein, Joseph ILB (2): Edmunds, Matakevich S (4): Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Marlowe CB (6): White, Wallace, Norman, Neal, Johnson, Jackson K (1): Bass P (1): Vedvik LS (1): Ferguson Notable cuts/trades: Barkley, Lee Smith, Murphy, Gaines, Duke Williams, Robert Foster, Corey Thompson, Boehm, Boettger

leads the league in contested catches and is top 5 in yards per target and yards per catch.

Just to note he can be both 1) Really good against a small sample set of 8 man boxes (thus not holding back his YPC). 2) Still faced a few number of 8 man boxes and have his YPC drop if he faced more. His vision and contact balance is still so amazing. Cover 1 did the Pittsburgh game and while the fumbles were rough some of his vision is insane (he jump cuts away from a guy coming from behind him; how?).