YattaOkasan

I'll take your virgins instead....?

I'm sacrificing goats hoping he does.

Yes I'm on crack they didnt even win 9 games last year. Waiting because they can and don't have cap room (been discussed on other threads). Yes we will pay more for him and the organization has made it clear they are ok with that. At this time they are able to win with him.

TT says hello with a 9-5 record. Also if the defense was so poor last year doesn't that make TT even better?

Trying to temper my expectations but I'm pretty excited about potentially landing him.

I think he didn't state his point well (or maybe I'm misunderstanding). I think he is saying that he thinks TT would not have been here last year (or in 2016) without Rex. Hard to say how much Roman value him.

Honestly after watching him carry the ball, I think he might be ok. He was a punishing runner (as you expect for a LB). I can't imagine that helped his knee any. Now that he's delivering the hits maybe his knee will be ok...?

But by all accounts Jack is a very hard worker in the film room. I forget the quote but when he lined up against Nelson Agholor from USC, he said he watched all of his college games. Dude does the work. Also he's a LB and covered an NFL level WR!!!! In that game Jack almost had as many total offensive yards as the NFL level WR he just shut down. I think that shows he knows his way around TWO football playbooks!!! As bandit said 3 years on a rookie contract for that level is worth it.

Darby would've had to still be here because Leodis was on IR heading into the season. Hard to speculate how Schwartz's D would've performed without a second CB. Without Roman its also harder to speculate how the offense would've performed. Do we even get Tyrod without Rex or Roman? Do we start the season with EJ or Cassel? I can't wait til we can stop speculating about the season that was, and start speculating on the season to come. This team has a lot of talent, and the holes can be filled via THIS draft (probably not others) if the cards fall our way (if 4 QBs go before 19).

I think Brown and Blanton have a lot of potential to contribute. I think one of these two will be successful here.

I would like us to go with EDGE or LB at 19 with us picking up an interior DL 2nd or later in the draft. I do think Kyle Williams is going to be a nickel specialist (3 tech), our 2nd round rookie will be in the base, and Bryant will back everyone up. Hopefully, they do pick up the edge rusher at 19 so he can play DE. Its weird it feels like a we are missing a lot more pieces that I think we actually are. Getting pretty excited for the draft.

I get your point and agree, but you called out BillsVet for cherry picking right after he explained his rationale. I almost always disagree with him, but in this case he laid out a pretty reasonable rationale. Also we are much improved at drafting but even some of that would be discounted by trades (Kiko's value was much greater than contributions).

He explained pretty clearly why he choose that range. It wasn't terrible to me. I do think we were terrible for most if not all of that range, and I do think we have improved substantially since that time. I would be interested in applying this tool to more recent years. I also think it discounts trades. We didn't really get much out of Kiko so the tool might see that as a bad draft choice in the second when really we leveraged his work to McCoy. To me that was a great draft choice because after 2 years we got McCoy from it, but I don't think the tool saw it that way.

I am also feeling EDGE at 19 then DL at 49 followed by at least one LB in three picks in the 3rd and 4th.

Ozzie, by his own admission, has not drafted great recently. I can still hope that he falls a bit more. Even if we don't move up to take him the run on QBs looks to benefit us.

I like your thoughts. I am warming up to Ragland at 19 and Roberts in 4th/5th to give us a Mike and Will type. Throw in 2 DL and a QB in between and I will be very happy with our draft.

Pick me I can play. You're not a slight bit hopeful of a franchise that's above .500 the past 2 seasons? With a HC that has made 2 AFC championship games?

So yes positional value is important. But in this scenario I don't think the position value of an interior DL being >> the position value of an LB, thus I still think you wait on interior DL. Honestly though the draft looks set up to be BPA because its so deep at DL.

Just of note. If 5 guys have 10% each then the you only have a ~60% of hitting on your guy (0.9^5). So it basically more supports your point that you should take the 1 guy.

My understanding was that this draft is very deep in DL with starters available in the first 3 rounds. I have not heard of a big dropoff for DLs but I have heard of a big dropoff for LBs. If that's the case then I would think LB in the first makes sense. If one resource is scarce and another is plentiful, obtaining the scarce resource must be a priority (why some people say draft a QB in the first every year until you have one). In this scenario its the LBs that are scarce so I have no problem with them picking one early and then getting a DL in a later round.

I also prefer a back up QB with a different skill set than the starter. For Roman I prefer a back up QB that is a better passer than runner, of which EJ is sorta neither. Obviously our best shot is a QB that can keep the defense on its heels with the run game, but if the run first QB gets hurt or we are down because #Rex's D so bad, then a QB that is most efficient in the pass game could steal a win for us. Also, the back up QB would be well versed in the starting QBs playbook (someone needs to run the drills) so the playbook would essentially be expanded. The expanded playbook also compensates for what is probably a less talented player at the position.

Its a good idea, and I would probably agree except the strength of this draft is on defense. I think most posters agree we should draft one of the top 4 BPA on our board with the selection being determined by position/need. If this draft had better WR or OL talent then we would end up selecting the positions you mention. However, this draft has lots of defensive front 7 talent. I expect a DL to be in the top 4 BPA for each of our first 3 selections. Additionally, I expect ILB, DE, Edge, Coverage LB to also be in the top 4 BPA in our first 3 selections. If we were expecting OL or WR to be amongst the top BPA available for multiple selections then I wouldn't be surprised with a strategy similar to what you propose. As it is, we are returning at least 4 starters on our OL, our starting TE, #1 receiver, #1 RB, and QB. That's a lot of pieces to the offensive puzzles already in place. I'm hopeful that the additional year in the system results in a top 10 (dare I say top 5) offense in TOP, turnovers, rushing yards, and most importantly TDs (I know really ambitious). You're right that in general the defense needs to not screw it up. I think our quiet FA signings plus our draft will allow us to have an above average to good defense (i.e. ranked 16-10).

Do you mind defining Impact and solid contributors? I think I agree but I can't be sure. For me an impact player would be a starter that rates in the top 20 for his position. A solid contributor is someone who plays >50% snaps, doesn't commit any penalties, and is good for 1 TFL/2 Solo Tackles or 30yrds/1 First Down per game. I would be interested to see what the board thinks too?

He's got me sold as well

Did he get injured in that game? At some point (hard to tell where) 64 seemed to replace him at LT.