YattaOkasan

I still don't see a sample size of 3 having that statistical power you need/want it to. You had good points and it was an interesting take. However, I still hesitate to assign too much significance to three games.

Thanks for responding. You had gotten into a part about 3rd down LBs which was where I got concerned. The inconsistency is interesting. I would love to play around with the data set if you would share the source (PM if you like). Thanks again.

Man lost my post. Thanks for your post; I like the data set. To reply for Metz it sounds like he is saying there is an inverse correlation between the yard rank and YPPT. R2 of 0.2 seems low but sounds reasonable. I would set the alpha on the slope of the line to be 0.05 or 0.1 to see if there is statistical significance. Should be easy enough to run/show. I am also interested in the relationship between offensive performance and YPPT. I don't think its a coincidence that the only year Rex had a higher yards rank then YPPT rank was the year he had his best offense. I do think you draw too many conclusions on this data set alone (Rex not building 3rd down LB's; edge versus multiple) unless you have lots of data you are not showing. Either way thanks again for posting and I would love to know the source because I'm bored and need to practice some stats. Maybe it would be a fun multivariate project.

I agree he does make a lot of good points. But it is a really a tiny sample. I could be convinced with some data but it would have to be pretty compelling. I don't think he presented any data as of yet.

Agreed. I don't want him back too early, but I take solace in the fact that the surgery seems to be pretty straight forward and was "successful." Additionally, overhead movements are not critical for his position. Now if he has to have spleen out I'll worry.

But it is a tiny sample. Football because of its nature doesn't have as many games as other sports, and you've taken 80% of it away. You make good points, but I am very hesitant to get on board with any analysis on 3 games. It simply could be lucky.

I agree with your take on Shaq. I would like to also add that he appeared to have more responsibilities than Dodd. He was asked to make run/pass reads, cover, set the edge (pass and run), and rush the passer. Dodd seemed to just set the edge and rush the passer (I saw him get burned on coverage badly when he did drop).

Has there been confirmation of a Jones Fracture? If not I would be very hesitant to diagnose him with that injury considering he played (very well too) the second half of the season on it.

Didn't watch the video but I again challenge the assertion (at least I think youre making) that he had a huge drop because of his shoulder. He was not a projected top 5 pick. He was projected to go at 11. He fell to 18 because the team at 11 moved up to get a different edge rusher. If his shoulder was the reason then fine. I think the Bears made a mistake and Lawson will have more of an impact than Floyd despite not playing a full season. He was only passed over by a handful of teams that seemed to want OTs really bad.

Those were my thoughts going into last year and I think the viewed was shared by many posters. I am still hopeful though that Rex could figure out a way to turn it around. Sorry you got ridiculed but I don't think your assessment was too far off from what most posters thought.

Again, I'm skeptical that its a Jones fracture. I had difficulty putting any weight on my foot after the fracture (it was an acute fracture and not chronic), and I don't think he could've played on it if it was a Jones fracture. Also he played great down the stretch. It also seems unlikely that complications from the surgery cause the injury to be worse then fractures he PLAYED with last year.

Agree he doesn't have the perceived upside, but he doesn't have as severe an injury as either of those guys. Missing maybe half a season is not effectively red shirting someone. I am also confused why he is the type of player that has to be productive day 1. Why do you say that (I guess position)?

So at first I was more concerned about this than the Lawson injury. Mostly because of my own personal experience with an acute Jones fracture and other examples of foot injuries lingering. However, the notes about him playing through it in the season make me a lot more hopeful. I was completely hobbled with my fracture. I am not a professional athlete but these injuries can cause excruciating pain. Sammy is tough (played through this and the ribs his rookie year), but I am skeptical that he could have played the end of last year let alone excelled with a serious foot injury.

Yeah but they have knee problems and he has a shoulder problem. Also he didn't miss time in college for his injury whereas jack and smith both were out. Youre being disingenuous.

Seems as if he only dropped 8 spots. And most of those were not teams looking for an edge player. We're not talking about a player everyone thought would be top 5 (Myles Jack) were talking about a guy most people had going at 11. It was a drop but not much of one. Also it's his shoulder. As long as he doesn't have to be a QB I think he'll be ok. He seemed to handle Stanley fine with out it functioning (the rematch @ 100% would have been interesting).

Maybe you need to look at Kelsay's numbers again. I liked him but they were far from remarkable.

Its a SHOULDER. He'll be ok. I think he will out perform Kelsay.

Shefter did report it and it was shot down by our organization and Lawson. He hurt it during a practice so yes that is surprising. See my points above about the drop but it seems to me that the Bears wanted Floyd which meant Lawson fell into our lap. It was not a huge drop (could have been but we'll never know). I would also say the Bears really wanted Floyd which is why they traded up to get him rather than they didn't like Lawson.

It seems legit considering this and eMoulds record + dire prediction. I was really excited to see his play too. I think Lawson can hold down the fort for a bit, but its obviously not what I wanted.

It was reaggravated during practice. Do other teams have crystal balls? He was flagged by only one team for a follow up at the combine. It's not as if there were a bunch worried. His drop was never fully explained but many had him being picked by the Bears at 11 so his drop was not that big. The Bears just really wanted Floyd (thus the move up). Outside of the Bears not taking him, I'm not sure why it was considered a big drop.

Yup sounds like Manny to start the season. This is why we don't have nice things. Thanks for the heads up by eMoulds. I'm already to the acceptance part of the grieving.

First game is fool's gold to me. Remember last year and how great we felt after week 1. I am also going to say the 10/30 NE game for reasons listed above.

Exactly. Thanks for posting but that one was hilarious.

That was a weird way to judge the draft. Only the top 100 players that we grade count. Our 3rd, 4th, and 5th are worth no points??? This feels like one of the more terrible ways to assess a draft.

Because of his shoulder injury? It's been pretty clear that it is not necessary this year.