YattaOkasan

so not weak?

Some mention of his pro bowls. Will also just leave a line in here that he has been a captain for 3 consecutive years. Dudes franchise no matter how many silly threads posters on here start.

K I disagree that First half is killer instinct time, but understand the logic. He was really good last year. He was good yesterday. I dont think not going for it during those two times CONTRIBUTED to the loss to Pitt. Our offense wasn't looking too good (see the countless posts on Josh allen regression 2021) so I don't have a qualm with those decisions. Again first half and only mid field for both of those. Do you think we should have gone for it from 4 and 5+ but inside the 10? I have more of a bone to pick with those (especially the one in the 4th quarter) than the two 4th and 1s in the first half.

4th and 1 I give Allen the ball on a sneak. He has a crazy good success rate on those plays. But yes let Josh be Josh.

Hmm... he had a couple of 4th and shorts in the FIRST half that he didnt go for. I think thats a slightly different conversation than 4th quarter game on the line. Additionally he did go for it 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter up 10-6. That was the Sutton play that gave the ball in mid field, and Pitt turned that short field into a TD. I dont know how win probabilities change but I assume first half aggression is less meaningful than second half. Do you still think his lack of aggression in the first half of that game contributed to the loss when compared to his willingness to do so in the second half?

Yes McD didnt do well in the AFCCG but yesterday he went for it on 4th and 1 up 21-0. If anything AFCCG was the aberration.

Was howard gonna be able to land in bounds with that ball? I really didnt think he had a chance at being in bounds which is why he didnt catch it really. Overall, Josh has played worse than he did on average last year; however, theres not enough sample size here to call it a regression. I count 5 games with similar rating to his two this year. Some those were even... back to back. I agree that teams are playing with super light boxes and we need to punish them for that (particularly in the second half of closer games, thinking of the Pitt game). I got a lot of faith they will get things turned around.

Allen wasn't very good against Indy? What were you watching? I thought he was the only reason we were in the game let alone won it. Our defense got run over when we had a 2 score lead in the 4th.

Disappointing losses and not meeting expectations was the routine of the drought and didnt cause us to hyperventilate. We should do what we always used to do. Drink heavily.

You’re right you can dress 47 but why not put 8 active if the 8th is free particularly if you got 9 on the 53. But yes 47 is the limit. Thanks I was wrong. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29820641/inside-new-nfl-roster-rules-2020-expanded-rosters-practice-squad-injured-reserve%3fplatform=amp

46 if you only have 7. I think teams were getting into trouble by not having enough OL for games. 3 injuries is a lot but not impossible so the league decided to incentivize keeping an 8th iirc

Think that was after Beyoncé brought the house down.

I see. I worry about bush more in coverage than I do in the run fits. I am not convinced he’s 100% yet as ACLs can be tricky. Cover 1 had a Steelers reporter as a guest and he didn’t think he was all the way back yet. Thanks for explaining your thinking

Why are they impossible to run on? If anything I think they have been run on late in the season. Heck we held the ball for 7 minutes to the end the game last year. patriots game at home was miserable weather too iirc.

I love the idea of them playing dime. Please take more front 7 players off the field. I thought it was a race to the QB was how they were gonna play with their front 7. Ain’t gonna be that if you have 7 DBs. And who is coming off the field for what should be a pretty weak DB. Heard they like Norwood so maybe they run dime with him. ACLs have been tricky for some players (see Phillips) so maybe bush doesn’t have his explosiveness back yet and he comes off? I think he’s active at Buffalo rumblings.

Pegula jet?

I dont want Moss or Singletary having anything to do with blocking Watt. I want Williams for that. I'm a little confused on your big gainer line. Josh has always pushed the ball down the field with high air yards per attempt and air yards per completion (these did come down last year). So they have shown that hitting the big 20+ play is part of the game plan.

He did pretty well against us in 2019 but that was without D Will. 0.5 Sacks, 1 Pass deflection, 4 tackles, forced fumble and 2 QB Hits

I struggle with the Pitt game. We ended the game in the red zone after holding the ball for 7+ min. Thats at least 3 more points that we decided not to score and is likely 7. With that in mind against one of the best defenses last year, I think the offense did its job in that game too.

Running quick passes can be easier said than done sometimes. You need a really high efficiency to score. Feel like a broken record, but while we had trouble with TE last year it has not been an Achilles heel for McD. In 2018 and 2019 we were one of the best against TE with regards to fantasy and in 2017 we were middle of the pack. Agree with your thoughts in the second half of the post. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/fantasy-points-against-TE.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/fantasy-points-against-TE.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/fantasy-points-against-TE.htm

Houston too

Sure I don’t think it’s wrong to say that. I question if it’s that big of an effect though. That’s what I thought you meant with the 11-0 comment. Seems like we both agree they werent strong 11-0 and Ben is better at the start. I just don’t think he’s that much better to make much of a difference.

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year. They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time.

But it isnt meaningless. At the end of the season it predicted 12 of 14 playoff teams. That was better than DVOA (same as weighted DVOA though). the weight of its meaning is debatable but to say it has no meaning is wrong.

Thanks for the response. Another good discussion with you. Above I mentioned context and I think point diff offers a good starting point for the discussion of what you expect from a team. The DVOA discussion you responded to is a good metric but is also has some challenges (many of the same you highlighted with point diff). Tenn is 28th in defensive DVOA should they have made the playoffs. KC is bottom half in defensive as well should they have made the super bowl. Seattle has a weighted DVOA of 5th and that didnt help that at all in the postseason (losing to #8 LAR). Heck Cleveland presents challenges to using DVOA as well as weighted DVOA has them at 18 and they beat Pitt (10th). All of these items need some context around them, but I disagree that point differential means almost nothing (means about as much as DVOA from above analysis). Below is the link to how point diff is used by pro football reference and 538. Is it only DVOA that you think is better. I think you previously mentioned many better metrics (which makes sense if you think point diff is essentially meaningless). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/indexf6a9.html?p=337