YattaOkasan

So you didn’t watch the game. dudes been a captain for 3 straight years. Y’all act like you know more than McBeane (literally the thread title). You’ve been scarred by BBFS. On good teams not every player shows up in the stat sheet. Are we still whipping on Star. He doesn’t fill the stat sheet but defense looks pretty good with him in there. I have no clue what his valuation is but I expect he gets re-signed.

I can see your point but if the DL doesn’t rush with contain in mind it is on them. I blame the DL for how Murray and tannehill tore us up last year.

Jackson got destroyed by AJ in whatever bowl game they faced off in. After the draft I realized the dolphins got Jackson and watched that game some more. edit video But i don’t share their thoughts on jackson

I dont know that teams use PFFs for their grades. There are advanced stats that are very helpful such as splits for under pressure, blitzed, personnel groupings. This can be very valuable to outsource to PFF rather than try to track it yourself.

Third year captain so no....

More likely that KC game is the difference between a 1 and 2 seed. We needed to beat them almost certainly, but I agree they are not holding things back.

Still caused me to recheck my data set, and there was one I missed. 8/2 would fall within random variability. My question at this point is about the recovery rate for offense. Does that mean they jump on the ball or does it include the OBs. Singeltary does have 1 FR (I believe for his own fumble). If its the former (offense jumps on the ball) Singeltary has been unlucky in recoveries. On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. http://www.footballperspective.com/tag/fumbles/ Appears its the former so Singeltary is lucky @Buffalo716. Though 3 more fumbles without a FL would push back towards non random space.

Thanks. That would def make him not being doing anything different than normal. And more likely hes just lucky. Not sure how I missed as I was compiling data (cause his splits are still 8/2).

At this point (again small sample size), the data does not support that its random for him. Not how it works. If I flip a coin 100 times in row as heads. Does that make it more likely that my next flip is tails? Offensive recovery is slightly greater than 50/50 (54%) on average. This may increase the probability enough to be greater than 0.05 which would make it not necessarily statistically significant.

1 FL in 8 fumbles is sorta not random. If its 50/50 for a recovery (I think odds are worse, but having trouble finding data) then i get a p factor 0.04. Thats statistically significant (despite a small data set of 8). So his fumble loss rate is not necessarily random. Thats amazing. First glance i threw up because of the song. But the histogrm was great.

I got 1 fumble loss in his career (I believe 2019 steelers game with watt getting him good, iirc). Looking up fumble loss rate.

It is high now. But it seems good prior to this year right? I got 1.6% prior to this year. More context seems that 1.6% is not good. with this year it would be worse. Digging into fumbles lost. Not sure I agree fumbles on the field are random. Is there a histogram that shows this?

I guess. But I think football is a situational game and as such a fumble on the boundary seems very different situationally than one even 5 yards away.

I guess but I dont really consider them fumbles. There is no risk. Theres some good stats about how often youre expected to recover a fumble and its low. Being near the boundary seems like it would greatly increase the chance of recover (one reason why I was ok with Allens flip to Knox in Houston). I wonder if/how thats accounted for in that stat.

Agree but in the Miami game the fumble outbounds on the sideline on that play doesnt present much risk to me. Also there was a face mask penalty on that play, not sure how much it mattered to the fumble. EDIT: all his fumbles are out of bounds. is this a concern. hes caring the ball in the correct hand. It doesnt seem to be much risk to me at all.

Sorry was being a bit snarky. I agree.

so not weak?

Some mention of his pro bowls. Will also just leave a line in here that he has been a captain for 3 consecutive years. Dudes franchise no matter how many silly threads posters on here start.

K I disagree that First half is killer instinct time, but understand the logic. He was really good last year. He was good yesterday. I dont think not going for it during those two times CONTRIBUTED to the loss to Pitt. Our offense wasn't looking too good (see the countless posts on Josh allen regression 2021) so I don't have a qualm with those decisions. Again first half and only mid field for both of those. Do you think we should have gone for it from 4 and 5+ but inside the 10? I have more of a bone to pick with those (especially the one in the 4th quarter) than the two 4th and 1s in the first half.

4th and 1 I give Allen the ball on a sneak. He has a crazy good success rate on those plays. But yes let Josh be Josh.

Hmm... he had a couple of 4th and shorts in the FIRST half that he didnt go for. I think thats a slightly different conversation than 4th quarter game on the line. Additionally he did go for it 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter up 10-6. That was the Sutton play that gave the ball in mid field, and Pitt turned that short field into a TD. I dont know how win probabilities change but I assume first half aggression is less meaningful than second half. Do you still think his lack of aggression in the first half of that game contributed to the loss when compared to his willingness to do so in the second half?

Yes McD didnt do well in the AFCCG but yesterday he went for it on 4th and 1 up 21-0. If anything AFCCG was the aberration.

Was howard gonna be able to land in bounds with that ball? I really didnt think he had a chance at being in bounds which is why he didnt catch it really. Overall, Josh has played worse than he did on average last year; however, theres not enough sample size here to call it a regression. I count 5 games with similar rating to his two this year. Some those were even... back to back. I agree that teams are playing with super light boxes and we need to punish them for that (particularly in the second half of closer games, thinking of the Pitt game). I got a lot of faith they will get things turned around.

Allen wasn't very good against Indy? What were you watching? I thought he was the only reason we were in the game let alone won it. Our defense got run over when we had a 2 score lead in the 4th.

Disappointing losses and not meeting expectations was the routine of the drought and didnt cause us to hyperventilate. We should do what we always used to do. Drink heavily.