Sammy Watkins' Rib

I'm fairly high on Garoppolo. I don't see him turning into a dud like Cassel. The 2018 off-season will be interesting for the Pats. I'm a little worried about his durability since he was injured after only playing 1 and a half games last year.

Look at the number of targets and you will probably find your answer. Did he not produce because he wasn't 100% or because we only through the ball a total of 25 times and Sammy only saw 6 or 7 balls thrown his way? My guess would be on the latter over the former.

Even when 100% healthy he's been a decoy in our ground and pound offense. Remember the Kansas City game? That should have been a 3 TD 200+ yard game for Watkins. But he went decoy in the second half no fault to his own.

It's the NFL. You think other star receivers are playing 100% healthy all season? And before you say, yeah but they produce, well yeah that is because they have more competent QBs and passing attacks that give them 10+ targets a game.

Don't hold your breath for that to happen. Look. Is Watkins injury prone? You could probably say so. But everyone is acting like the dude is going to miss 8 games again. That is extremely unlikely. As pointed out he played 29/32 games his first two seasons. Nothing wrong with that at all. He is way more likely to play in all 16 this year then miss even 4 or 5 games. As for what kind of production he puts up? Well that is part of the key to this trade. Would Beane ever have had the balls to trade him to a team with a legit QB? I'm thinking not. But with him going to a team with a bad QB, it almost insures that the Bills at the very least don't come out looking like they got smoked in this trade. With Goff, Watkins cieling is probably 1150 yards and 10 TDs.

And this year they are going the other route. Bringing in Gilmore, Gilislee, and Cooks. They haven't exactly been good a drafting players the last decade. They just have Brady and Belicheck and really that's all that matters.

They need to ditch Taylor then. Why start him this year and win say three games you would have lost with Peterman or Yates at QB instead. Insure that you get a top five pick. May even need to ensure you get a top 3 pick with the number of teams looking to tank.

Really impossible to answer this question I think. I will say I do expect better production out of the receiving core this year compared to last year. But that's not to say Watkins/Woods/Goodwin isn't better. Circumstances just lead last year's production to be way down because Watkins missed 8 games. It would be foolish to expect Watkins to miss 8 games again in 2017. On the other side we have Boldin who will be playing at the age of 37. And he is coming off a year where his ypc tanked from an already low 11.4 to an abysmal 8.7 ypc. Boldin's YPC has gone down in each of his last six seasons so expecting a resurgence above 10ypc could be wishful thinking. Matthews has also seen his YPC decline for two straight seasons all the way down to a low of 11.0 last season. And obviously we have no idea what we have in Zay Jones.

I can't blame them for being excited. It is very little to give up for huge upside. Gains was their 4th CB and injury prone? Basically they gave up a second to see if Sammy can stay healthy. If he does they have a game changer. They still need a QB but franchise tag Sammy and Darnold, Allen or Rosen could be throwing to Sammy in 2018. Still worth the gamble. We used two first round picks on Sammy. They used a 2nd and gave us a player they didn't even need.

Our new GM has never heard of the Franchise Tag? 100% chance Sammy could have been here for another year beyond 2017 if we chose to go that route.

I'll watch the top college QB's. The Chiefs. And all the other teams we will compete with for a top 3 pick. Jets, Browns, 49ers, Jags.

We should try to swing him for a player like when we landed Hughes for Sheppard.

He won't. But he should be IMO. With Tyrod starting we will not be able to do a full tank this season. And I don't really see a long term benefit in keeping Tyrod because I feel the front office and coaching staff will want to move on after this season. I mean Taylor would have to pretty much play out of his mind for us not to draft a QB next year. The other problem though is it seems quite a few teams are content to tank next season and go after a QB next draft/off-season. So as much of an upgrade as Taylor would be to teams like the Jets, 49ers, Jags etc. none of those teams are serious about winning games this year.

Of course. But as I have pointed out. Pats still have talent on their roster despite the many players they have let go over the years. We have McCoy and not much else. That's going to be a problem for us. You can't follow the Patriot's recipe and expect success if the cupboards are bare.

Pretty sure he is correct. 17 years and counting for us. Pats five Super Bowl victories over that span. Pats have Brady, Gronk, Edleman, Gilmore. Bills have McCoy. But it's okay because we have six picks in the first three rounds next year. We'll foolishly start Tyrod all season which means we won't finish bad enough to get a top 3 QB in the 2018 draft.

So Cousins or Garoppolo? With our luck the '17 draft classs ends up being better then the '18 draft class. Perfectly said. Everyone right now is talking up the '18 QB Draft Class. But let's check the date. August 12, 2017. Come next February the # of good prospects could go from 4 or 5 to 1 or even 0. And even then they are still only prospects. This whole thing has been a huge crapshoot over the last several years. Carr, Dak, Wilson three of the better QBs in the league currently all drafted 2nd round or later. You still have front offices taking major swings and misses at guys like Goff. Who's to say the Bills won't do the same in '18?

The good thing about the trade is Sammy is with the Rams. At best Sammy puts up maybe 1180yards and 9 TDs. Very respectable numbers considering Goff is there. But imagine if we traded him to Green Bay or some other team with a good QB? My guess is Matthews would cost more than what ever Robert Woods got paid from the Rams. But shouldn't be too expensive. If Matthews gets 100 receptions he just might reach 1K.

Boldin averaged less than 9ypc last year. And now our top WR averages 11.0 ypc. Matthews average has dipped in each of his three years in the league from 13.0 to 11.7 to 11.0. He was never a big yards per catch guy but his numbers are going the wrong way and at the young age of 25. Hopefully Zay Jones can be our guy to open up the field. At least Watkins is going to the Rams. Even if he stays healthy he is not likely to put up big numbers there which will make the trade tolerable.

I agree unless his pre-season performances resemble those from Dak last year.

LOL. Just because some say a guy is comparable it leads you down the road of "no he isn't let's make a bet to prove it'? If Sammy puts up only75 or 80% of Julio's numbers he's got a chance for a HOF career. They are still comparable at this point of their careers no matter what you think. Do I expect Sammy to go off for 1600 yards 100 receptions and 6 TD's? No. Do I expect him to go off for 1300 yards 85 receptions and 10 TDs? Yes. Again, everything leading up to year three for each player is very comparable. In fact probably not another more comparable player in the NFL currently. What Sammy does from year 4 and on we don't know. Basically three things can happen. He can continue to under produce, he can produce at a top 10 level, or he can produce at a HOF type level. Let's hope it is one of the two latter options.

So many things wrong here. 1. So we shouldn't try to make projections? Just wait until a players obvious place in history smacks us in the face? 2. Julio Jones was nowhere near the best receiver in NFL history after only three years in the league. 3. Sammy actually produced at a higher rate in each players second year. Yes Julio produced at higher rates in years 1 and 3. But with all the other similarities to their careers and I'd say these players are quite similar through three years. And Sammy having one year of better production helps. 4. Matt Ryan and falcons passing attack is way better for a receiver compared to EJ Manuel/Kyle Orton/Tyrod Taylor and the ground and pound rushing attack of the Buffalo Bills.

Nobody is saying he is way better. Or even better at all. But Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing attack >>>better situation for a receiver over Taylor and the ground and pound rushing attack of the Bills the last two seasons. I wouldn't really think that is debatable. And for what it is worth, if we look at year two numbers for each player Watkins put up better numbers despite playing with a more limited QB and offense. So we know Watkins has the ability and is capable of Julio Jones type production. Let's see what he does this year.

Yeah but then you have the Jacksonville debacle. Yes he came back and played well after the first quarter. But that first quarters was just SO BAD. And even last year against the Jets he was very bad all around. I think the proof really does show he is a really bad QB.

Old School, with all due respect you really can't see the significance of taking into account rushing numbers for QBs like Newton and Taylor? Obviously without that aspect of their games they wouldn't be starting QBs. 17 or 18 rushing TDs over a 16 or 18 year career doesn't have much significance. But 17 or 18 rushing TDs over just 3 or 4 seasons has a huge significance. Same thing with 500-600 rushing yards on a season. Also, with Taylor I still maintain that we have to see what he does in year three before we truly no what we have or don't have with him. His 2015 season was very good. His 2016 season was below average. His 2017 season will be the tiebreaking season for him. Another very good season from him like his 2015 season could very well likely cement him as our QB for the 2018 season. Yeah 17 passing TDs in 15 games is pretty poor. But what about 20 passing TDs in 14 games? All this of course complicated still with Watkins missing significant time in both 2015 and 2016. 30 total TDs should probably cement him as the starter for 2018. I think he gets real consideration around 26-27. At the same time I don't think I would be opposed to drafting a top QB prospect in the first round still and letting him sit for a couple years. Or just let the two duke it out in pre-season and see who wins the job. That's how Taylor won his starting job here to begin with. And other recent rookie QBs like Dak and Wilson showed similar early success and also won their jobs.

Correct. It was his second year. It wasn't just the Watt pick six that was bad in that game. IIRC EJ completed less than 50% of his passes in that game. I felt like EJ should have still been able to overcome that pick six and win the game for us but he couldn't. Orton's first four games provided a spark. But I recall by the time he played Denver late in the season I was ready to see EJ back again. That's how bad Orton's play had gotten.