Sammy Watkins' Rib

I do. Take Dejean and grab best available WR in round 2. If possible pull of small trade up and grab McConkey, Legette or Franklin. Coming away with Dejean and one of those three WR's would be a home run draft IMO.

I can’t wait to watch McCarthy fall out of the first round. He’s this year’s Will Levis in terms of receiving so much first round hype post bowl season and leading up to the draft.

Your projections are off a bit based on historical data. You project 620 targets but Allen only had 579 last year in a full 17 games. In his two most recent 16 game seasons in 2020 and 2022 he had an average that would have put him right around 600 for 17 games. His career high was 646 in 17 games played in 2021. I expect the Bills to have a continued focus on the running game so i lean more towards a repeat of the 580 attempts from last season. So I say you are anywhere from 20-40 attempts over expectation for 2024. Samuel the last five seasons has 105, 97, 92 and 91 targets in four of the last five seasons. The other season he only played 5 games. His rushing attempts in that span per year are 19, 4, 41, 38, 7. Your projections are 75 targets and 55 rushing attempts for Samuel. I can see the 75 targets, but he is capable of another 10-30 targets based on past performance. The 55 rushing attempts seems highly unlikely. For Kincaid I think we hope he hits 120 targets. 110 should be his floor. The top TE's in the game are all getting 120 -130 targets per season.

The questions on defense might be overblown. Both safety spots are really the only positions with significant change. While Hyde and Poyer were great in their time with the team, there is no denying they were both old last season by safety standards. Not out of the question that we are not losing much at all by moving on from both in the grand scheme of things. As @Kirby Jackson noted, the defense in particular has played a lot of games in the McDermott/Allen era without key defensive pieces for long stretches. Losing Floyd, Hyde and Poyer likely doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. I get concerned about the defense in the postseason every year though.

Ravens double dipped on small speed receivers. First Marquise Brown, whom they ultimately fell out of love with and then they replaced him with Zay Flowers. TBD on Zay Flowers.

Blast from the past! What was the Josh Reed treatment? Honestly curious what you are hinting at with regards to Josh Reed. I recall, if memory is correct, Reed had a pretty good rookie season and then did practically nothing with the Bills or any other team after. I think what a lot of folks are weary of is Beane expecting Shakir to keep up his level of play in an increased role only to have him fall short of expectations. Fans of course or weary due to Davis never taking that next step a lot of us thought he would.

None of which makes your point. Mahomes, Lamar and Burrow all peaked in 2018, 2019 and 2021 respectively. And you are railing on Allen having peaked in 2020. You want to crown Lamar over Allen? Because of hardware. Okay knock yourself out. Don't think a single GM would take Lamar over Allen. Mahomes plateaued in 2018 Jackson plateaued in 2019 Burrow plateaued in 2021

I think you are wrong here when it comes to the Chiefs. Kelce was not a top 10 receiving threat last season. He was not even top 20 in total receiving yards or yards per game. He was also outside the top 10 in both total receptions and receptions per game. Only on paper right now do the Bills have less receiving talent than the Chiefs did last year. But I would be willing to bet at the end of the year, the 2024 Billls and 2023 Chiefs will look very similar in receiving numbers. Allen is still going to throw for 4,200 yards so those yards are going to go somewhere. Just as Mahomes threw for 4,200 last year and yet didn't have any one player eclipse 1,000 yards.

Mahomes best season was in 2018. He hasn't meaningfully improved since then. He's only declined since 2018. See how weak that statement about Josh is? Lamar Jackson peaked in 2019 Joe Burrow peaked in 2021 wHaT iS WroNg WiTh ThEsE Qb'S!!!!???

"Overdrating players in a later round" that kind of sounds like an oxymoron. Once you get past round 4, it's a crapshoot in every draft.

The thing I love about the above stats is the 105 targets. That's the direction the team needs to go. Diggs was a 160 target per year receiver in his time in Buffalo. That is way too many forced targets to a single player. Shakir, Kincaid, Cook, Aiyuk, and Samuel make that your top four receiving targets and let them all get 80 - 120 targets.

Small sample size, yes. But boy did it spiral out of control FAST in all 2.25 games. In the most recent and only two full games, the Bills defense gave up TD-TD to start off each game. In the shortened game they gave TD and at least a for sure FG could have also easily been TD-TD in that one as well. Just no answers at all on defense in either of the three games. Offense really never clicked in either as well.

At the same time, reality is the Bills can't beat the Bengals. History says they are more likely to beat the Chiefs than they are the Bengals. Not likely we will ever avoid both in the playoffs but hopefully seeding can work out where we don't have to beat both.

I disagree. Bills have not really shown any hint at all that they can beat Cincy. We can't even be competitive with them. We are at least beating the Chiefs in the regular season and playing competitive game with them in the postseason. Cincy remains the Bills biggest challenge until proven otherwise. We just got lucky they didn't make the dance last year. They nearly did with a back up QB.

One of those receivers, Tez Walker, even went in the third round of Mock Draft 1.0.

We will let you know now then. They've already done a mug shot and he has posted bail. His jail time so far has been brief but it did actually happen.

Lol. Exactly! Billl at the start of the season when Rice isn't on the field: "Put me on record, there's no way he serves the entire 15 year sentence."

They dumped Kareem Hunt for far less. What Rice did was 100x as deadly and stupid than what Hunt did.

This did not age well. I don't know if Rice serves actual time behind bars or not. I would wager a better than decent chance he either misses the entire season or sits out a good 6 games or so on league suspension. But to think someone who speeds because they are racing another sports car, causes a six car accident and LEAVES THE SCENE, wouldn't be brought into custody is something else.

Haha. My thoughts too! 39% and 18% chances respectively. Screw it. Let's just draft a Safety at #28 and DT at #60.

People need to come to the realization that the days of the Bills offense running through a WR that gets 140+ targets is over. Diggs got that and then some during his time as a Bill, 160+ targets per year on average. Look for the Bills to feature 4-5 players all in the 80 -110 target range.

Love the red helmet. But I am waiting for the inevitable blow back when they bring it back with the "all red" uniform.

I agree. I think we are getting away from an offense that force feeds the ball to one receiver for 140+ targets every season. Diggs averaged just over 160 targets per season with the Bills these last four years. All of the "top 4" WR's in this draft would likely be guys demanding that type of work load. I think our offense is better suited to not have any one player targeted more than 120 times. I see Worthy as a legitimate possibility because he offers something none of our other players have in speed and could be a guy that sees less than 90 - 100 targets a season and still produces and threatens the defense vertically. I could also see them targeting WR in the 2nd round, hopefully with a trade up to get the guy they want. Doing so, sets the tone that, hey, you are piece to the puzzle here but you are not THE piece.

I'm thinking he would likely cost us this years #2. So no WR at pick 60. I wouldn't want to give up this year's #1. So maybe pick 60 this year and one more mid round pick next year?

I still like DK Metlcaf. 1. He's young. We would basically acquire him at the same age as when the Bills acquired Diggs. 2. The physical traits are still there. 3. He has one elite season under his belt back in 2020 and you could definitely make the case that that was the last time he played with a top 10 QB. 4. He won't be WR that commands the QB's attention all the time. He's still just a 120-140 targets per season receiver. Compare that to Diggs who basically averaged 160 targets per season in his four years with the Bills. I actually think in our offense DK could be a 100-115 targets per season WR and basically produce similar to Davis but at a higher level since we have seen that DK's ceiling is a 1300 yard 10.1 ypt season. And this would allow our offense to have a balanced passing attack. I'd love to see an offense where our top 4 targeted pass catchers are all within about 15-20 targets of each other at the end of the season. 5. With a new coaching staff and no franchise QB on the roster i could see Seattle making him available.