BarleyNY

Thank you. First let me say that I haven’t watched much film on the WRs so I am mostly using other people’s work on this. Obviously the top three - Harrison and Odunze look like of stud “do it all” X WRs. Nabors can probably do that job but would be better at Y/Z. He doesn’t have the physicality the other two do. Jermaine Burton is a player that looks like he can do it all as an X. I’ve watched a little of him. Talent-wise he is no worse than my WR4, but he has issues on and off the field. He will be off of some teams’ boards and dinged on others. If the Bills brass are comfortable with the character concerns, then I’d be very happy with him wherever we took him - 28, trading up from 60 or at 60. The question is how far he will fall. He’s a guy who has the talent to be a real difference maker. Adonai Mitchell can be an X. I’ve read that he can win at every level, but he didn’t do any agility testing and I haven’t watched him. Brian Thomas Jr is an X, but one that is more in the mold of Metcalf. Big, fast and a contested catch winner. He can stress defenses deep, but his downside looks to be agility limitations that will limit his route tree. I don’t think he can separate quickly but he might be able to make up for some of that with contested catches (something Gabe Davis was terrible at). Keon Coleman - same mold as Thomas Jr. but not as fast. Malachi Corley - Y/Z mold Troy Franklin - vertical receiver, not sure if he is physical enough (yet) to be an X. Xavier Leggette - X receiver, raw with limited route tree but may have the ability to diversify that. Haven’t watched him, but seems like he might have the talent to do everything. Ladd McConkey - Y and maybe Z Jalen McMillan - Y/Z Ricky Pearsall - Y and maybe Z Ja’Lynn Polk - vertical outside WR who can make contested catches. I see him as an X if he can be physical enough. Apparently he was poor against zone coverage so I wouldn’t use any valuable pick on him. Devontez Walker - X receiver. He’s not huge but should be big and physical enough to play on the LOS. Not polished, but very talented. Xavier Worthy - Y/Z with elite speed. I enjoyed typing this up and it should be a good summary for me during the draft. Hope it helps.

I do not think we will see Diggs on the Bills in 2025. I’m very curious to see the direction we go as far as the type of WR they draft. As it stands Samuel is more in the same mold as Diggs. By that I mean a Y/Z receiver. What the Bills really need is do it all X. I will recap the different WR roles below to illustrate my line of thinking. X - Outside WR who lines up on the LOS. Needs to be a physical player who can get off of press coverage and win deep. A big bonus if they have the agility to win short and intermediate as well. Y - Slot WR or TE. Agility is key. Need to be able to uncover quickly and work the middle of the field. Effective at short and intermediate routes is mandatory. Ability to get deep (i.e. seam routes) is a big plus. Z - Outside WR who lines up off of the LOS. Similar to Y except usually lines up on in-line TE side. Is the “move” WR. So we’re pretty flush with Y and Z types in Diggs, Samuel, Shakir and Kincaid. But we don’t have that X. It is difficult to find an X who can do it all. It’s easier to find a Gabe Davis who can get deep, but isn’t good at uncovering quickly on shorter routes. Obviously if you can find someone who is big, fast and agile you go get that guy. But if you can’t, then what’s your next best option? Another Y/Z type where all of the WRs can share the load of being on the LOS? Or an X limited to deep and intermediate routes? The answer will depend on what Brady’s offensive scheme prioritizes and what Beane can reasonably attain in the draft. The WR we draft will tell us a lot about what the offense is going to look like moving forward.

I have the same concerns about our pass rush. We don’t have the horses to pressure QBs with the front 4. I expect the Bills to use blitzing and scheme (simulated pressures) to generate pressure. I do not think we have much on the back end of the defense either. Johnson is excellent at Nickel, but we’re pretty ordinary at outside CB and lack depth there. Our safeties look to be below average as we don’t have one on the roster that wasn’t a backup last season. That’s concerning. I expect to see a lot of two deep. Milano and Bernard at LB is a bright spot (along with Johnson). Still, I see a defense that is not going to be the reason we win games this season. I am much happier with the offense. Other than needing to add an X receiver and a complementary RB it looks great to me. A fantastic QB, very good receiving corps, quality lead back and a solid OL is great to have in place already. It obviously going to be the strength of the team. It should make us favorites in the AFCE, but I don’t think we have the defense to make us as competitive in the playoffs as I’d like. Still, you never know what the landscape there is going to be like until the time comes.

Great job scouting our depth OL during preseason.

LOL. You can’t be serious. I’d be lying if I said I remembered him from last year’s preseason scrub time - or that I even paid attention. I’m not saying that he didn’t deserve a spot on the 53. Maybe he did. But in preseason scrub time he earned a PFF grade of 46 with a 33.6 in pass pro. PFF is far from perfect in their grading, but that’s abysmal - and he wasn’t exactly lining up against NFL starters. Oh, and if you don’t believe me, then believe Beane. He just signed another IOL who has starting experience. Edit: Those grades were from preseason 2022. He did better in 2023 preseason. 76.5 run blocking and 54.7 pass blocking.

So no one that ever fought their way out of an ordinary situation and obscurity to find fame, fortune and success ever took their foot off the gas and coasted? Good to know.

Agree on pass rusher being the top need. The Bills have no one that can get to the QB quickly. While I don’t have an issue with them taking a DE worthy of the selection, I fear that they will reach in the first to try to fill that need. As it stands they’re going to have to manufacture pressures with scheme and blitzing. That only goes so far though. I’m not comfortable with Rousseau and Epenesa as the starters. If we don’t get much from Von, the. that’s where we are. I just don’t see two starting DEs on this team today. WR is a close second. The Bills really need an X, but they have three WRs that can go in week one with Diggs, Samuel and Shakir. If they’re going with a rookie to fill that - and I’m 99.9% sure that’s the direction they’re going - then they have to get the player in this draft. That will also ease the transition away from Diggs.

I would not be surprised if IOL is a spot that the Bills throw a couple of Day 3 picks at. I hope they add a decent backup in FA at some point. As I see it they’ve got Van Demark backing up the OTs and pretty much no one backing up the OGs. Anderson has done nothing. It’s just speculation due to the Bates and Morse moves that he is a viable backup. I think it’s a hole on the roster. But one that should be fairly cheap to fill.

But seriously, no. Not since he got paid.

Looks to be the case. His $13M fifth year option was already guaranteed. $28M more is now guaranteed as part of 3 additional years. The new years are at about $17.5M each. An additional $1.75M/season in incentives is possible. Certainly a bit of a risk. https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/20/browns-jerry-jeudy-contract-details-clarity/

90% of the people here are going to be outraged because the Bills didn’t take a WR in the first round - or they’re going to be outraged by the WR the Bills took in the first round. Then within two weeks those same 90% will have talked themselves into believing that the player the Bills drafted was 100% the correct decision.

That’s a big question. I suspect so since the other info we got was the “up to $58M” figure, but we will have to wait and see.

Crazy thought: What if - and I’m just spitballing here - we leaned into our elite QB and gave him the help he needs to maximize his effectiveness?

The Browns had already restructured Jeudy’s contract and added void years so that this year’s cap hit was minimized. I’d wait until the details on the contract come out before judging. People wigged over the Winston contract because they saw that it was $8.7M for one year. Except it was actually “up to $8.7M” and really only a much more reasonable $4M.

It is a combination of everything. Diggs’ actions, rumors among NFL teams and chatter from OBD. It’s been obvious he hasn’t been happy here. He took the bag so he’s dealing with it, but he’s frustrated. And I think the team is with him too. Now we are at about the point in the player-team lifecycle that teams move on from highly talented and highly paid players - especially ones who are a PITA. Diggs’ performance is starting to wane and soon we will see his contributions drop below his cost. The team sees it coming - and so does the rest of the league. They might not part ways this off-season, but it’ll be soon.

Correct. Void years are just used to spread out the cap hit from signing bonus money. All cap hits from void years accelerate when a player is cut or traded. Into the current year if by 6/1 or the following year if post 6/1.

Here’s how I look at it: At one extreme it could be other teams looking at the situation here and Diggs’ history and making an educated guess. That does not necessarily mean anything is cooking. At the other extreme it could be that the feelers have been put out and the Bills are trying to find a trade partner. Either way - or somewhere in the middle - it isn’t difficult to believe that people who run in NFL circles - like Lombardi - got wind of the chatter. As for what I think. There’s too much smoke for it to be nothing. I think that the Bills would like to be able to move on from Diggs as soon as possible, but I don’t know if it’s feasible to do so at this time. I think that if a team made it worth their while, then they’d do it. I just don’t know that it’s in the cards though. I think he’s probably here until next off-season when he’s a post 6/1 designated cut. But if a team gets desperate and the Bills draft goes well, then that’s a different story.

Truck. Poyer is likely semi-retired now so he will probably try to avoid any real contact.

I heard this just after the SB from a reporter for an NFL team not in the AFCE and think I can share it now. The reporter said that the big rumor among NFL teams in Las Vegas during the week leading up to the SB was that the Bills would be trying to trade Diggs this off-season. The team he reports for would not be a logical trade destination. He wouldn’t give any additional info.

Why wouldn’t he just play for the Eagles? He’s only set to get $6.5M in cash this season. That seems doable for the Bills, but again, why?Why would he choose to change teams and learn a new system for one season rather than stay where he is beloved and knows the players and system? It really makes no sense. Also his retirement paperwork has not been processed yet. That tells me that they’ll do it post 6/1 to push some cap hit into next season. That’s possible because he has void years on his contract.

Yes, he is still under contract with Philly for one more season.

I don’t think Clowney is the right fit as his role is a lot like Rousseau’s. Neither wins quickly with bend, speed and agility. Clowney wins with power and Rousseau more with his length, but it amounts to a similar result. Both are better complimentary pieces to a speed rusher with bend. So I agree that DE is a huge need as we lack that edge that can get pressure quickly. I don’t see much pressure coming from the players currently on the roster. The good news is that a bunch of DEs signed after 6/1 last season. Hoping we can grab a good one this year even if he is just a quality pass rush specialist.

That’s the property of the Titans. The slap in the face was last season when they wore their Oiler throwback uniforms when they played the Texans. Even put the oil derrick on the 50.

https://overthecap.com/evaluation-of-the-2024-compensatory-picks-projection For anyone interested, linked is Over The Cap’s self-evaluation of their Compensatory Draft Pick projections.

I agree. I think that’s the smart play. However I can see the Bills going DE in round 1 and WR in round 2. Right now this team has virtually no pass rush juice. None of our DEs can pressure the QB with any reliability and at DT it’s pretty much just Oliver. Admittedly, there are a lot less quality DE prospects than quality WR prospects this draft so there is certainly a defensible logic to going DE first. But the risk of undermining the offense isn’t worth it IMO. That’s what I’m concerned about. I don’t know that McDermott will be able to help himself. He’s always prioritized his defense.