BarleyNY

I’m not undermining my point that as more useful information is attained, better predictions can be made. You’re assuming a lot (incorrectly) in the rest of your post.

Were you able to adjust your expectations of the Bills’ final regular season record after they beat KC to get to 9-2? Were you able to adjust your expect of the Vikings regular season record after seeing how Darnold performed in that offense? I was. Another example is the Lions. I thought they were a strong contender to make the NFCCG and SB. Then just about their whole defense went down with injuries. That made me think they’d get bounced early in the playoffs, which they did.

Yes, we will all know more and be able to make better predictions as time passes. FA will bring things into better focus, then the draft, then cuts, then every week. Anyone skilled at projecting anything should know that our ability to project the season’s outcome today is very, very poor. I’m not sure what you’re even arguing. You seem to be disagreeing with me, but then you write paragraphs supporting what I’ve said.

Yeah. That’s all in line with my point. You can’t know how it’ll all shake out for your team or anyone else. No harm in some fans making some optimistic projections, but we will see dozens of things to change those projections leading up to the season and then again during the season.

So much depends on when you get some opponents. The Lions are a great example. Essentially their entire defense was out injured when we played them. It’s a vastly different game if we’d have played them week 2. Do we play in Miami in sweltering heat or in December? Or at night? Do they have to come up here in the snow? Do we have to play the same divisional opponent twice within a couple weeks? So much left to shake out. Not the least of which is what teams add and lose what players - Bills included.

He had significant injuries playing CB when he was younger. No way he holds up as a safety in his 30s - even if he could make the position switch. No as a CB too. They’d be wasting the roster spot and inviting distraction. I say this despite the fact that he was one of my favorite players. The Sabres could use a goalie…….

Agreed. No one is going to give up a pick to pay Milano $10M next season when they can’t rely on him to stay healthy. The Bills probably have to keep him for 2025, but that’ll be it. Maybe the Bills play hardball and get him to convert some salary to active roster bonuses.

Glad someone is bringing up all of this stuff. I agree with all of it. Heck, I’ve already said almost all of it.

When asked about this decision NY Giants owner John Mara had this to say:

I disagree. $15M AAV is outrageous. And what if their limit is $10M AAV? Or $11M? That seems the more appropriate range to me - as I outlined in detail in this thread. And even $11M is a stretch IMO. Nothing exists in a vacuum. If Cook gets a 50% premium, then why shouldn’t other players? And why shouldn’t that extra 4 or 5 million a year go toward keeping or adding another impactful player? As others have said, this hasn’t become a problem (yet). If he needs to play out his deal and test free agency next year, then so be it. Or if we get there and the Bills want to tag him, that works for me. Heck, sign him to an extension that’s backloaded so he can tout it even though he won’t see the real money. But handing him a contract that pays him anything close to $15M AAV would be a huge mistake.

No disagreement there. Just discussing how I’d like to see things handled if it heads down that path. I don’t think that things going that way would be surprising at this point.

No, I agree that he’s going to have to play out his deal if we make him. I wasn’t saying we had to trade him or even that we should, just that the compensation won’t be all that much. People that are thinking a first or second round pick are not in the right ballpark. Also this would be a great opportunity for Beane to show everyone that this team won’t be manipulated again. Players can’t pull a Diggs and expect it to work again.

I agree with all of this, but have an additional concern. I don’t mind players taking to social media when they have a legitimate gripe and things have come to an impasse. But that raises the question of whether negotiations have hit an impasse or if Cook & co. are pushing things into the public sphere even before they began. If it’s the former, then his expectations seem unrealistic and we probably have a real issue. If it’s the latter, then he may be in the process of creating an issue. It’s no secret that the Bills very much prefer working on extensions like his out of the public eye so this is definitely a shot across the Bills bow. And that does not portend happy days ahead. The problem is that he’s a RB with one year left on his contract at $5.2M and he wants a new deal at well over market. We’re looking at a day 3 pick.

Well, the Steelers SHOULD be calling teams about QBs. I’d be much more disappointed in their FO if this is fake.

I appreciate the kind words. I’m always happy to help with things I have some knowledge of. I’m a numbers geek and have been looking at the salary cap for over 20 years now. Things are always so nuanced and so much is unknown by us fans this time of year. We can look at the cap numbers and have a good idea of team needs, but we often don’t know what the team thinks of some of the players on their roster. I think they can get to $30M under if they want to. More, if they really push it. That will enable them to make some reasonable signings and fill their holes. They could even make one big signing if they want. I would not expect more than than one splash signing though. The direction they are going should be a lot clearer in mid March. The new league year will be here and they’ll make their cuts. If there is a splash FA signing, it’ll likely happen then. We will have a better idea of their needs too.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/longformarticle/understanding-the-cleveland-browns-spending-philosophy-why-it-is-sustainable-2024-235642851/#2480064 Here is an article explaining the methodology of the Browns, which is essentially the same as the Eagles.

There are some articles out there about how the Eagles and Browns are operating. It is infinitely sustainable as long as the NFL’s salary cap increases at its historical pace of about 8% a year. It enables them to outspend typical teams by about 15-18%. I’ll post an article if I can find one.

You’re right about every GM wishing they could spend like Philly and ownership’s willingness to spend, but the Eagles are running this in a sustainable way. There is no “cap hell” year on the horizon though. Not as long as the salary cap continues to rise.

I guess Kincaid should have added more muscle last offseason.

Not only is an early age drop off in production due to wear and tear a big factor with RBs, seasons lost to injury are too. Injury can happen to any player at any position, but RBs are injured at a particularly high rate.

It’s simply a function of their cash spend. The Bengals are very frugal in what they spend - players, facilities, staff, etc. So they could choose to increase their cash spend on contracts and more aggressively structure them. That’s what Burrow is pushing for. You are correct that within a given budget keeping both WRs would mean cutting back elsewhere. But this isn’t that. Burrow wants them to expand their budget because there is plenty of room to do so in Cincinnati.

I wonder if they’re trying to drive up the price. It’s not like the Browns aren’t in the market and haven’t bent over in the recent past. It makes me think this is Lawrence driven. The Jags are a disaster so I could see him wanting out.

Clemson was doing a lot of cheating when he was there. It got figured out the year Ohio State covered up their signs and beat them. So while I wondered how much that helped him look good in college and how he might struggle in the NFL without that aid, the thing that really bothered me was him laughing and joking around as that game came to a close. He didn’t seem to care at all that they lost - and badly - in the playoffs.

No, $5M additional cap space would not change much. That would be about 2% of the current cap. Teams would just change their calculations for 2025 by 9.6% instead of the expected 7.6%. It’s a moot point anyway because the cap numbers will be out before the new season when they can sign Cook to an extension. It would change my example of a $10.5M/season extension for Cook to $10.7M. Minimal.

Arguing that Barkley didn’t deserve the contract he got only diminishes Cooks’ case. The use of void years is not a reason to excuse overpaying a player. It is not the reason the Eagles structure so many contracts that way. It is a cap management tool that enables them to pay more players fair market value. That enables them to build a more talented team. Using it to overpay players destroys its usefulness. Cash is what matters to players and agents and that should be the focus of what constitutes a fair deal.