Kirby Jackson

You can compare stats to historical output. The 2024 Bills had the fewest negative plays EVER. Not just for the Bills, of any team ever. Is it reasonable to believe that, for a 2nd consecutive year, they won’t do something that no team in history has ever done? Common sense says it regresses even if it’s still good. The Bills could be a top 5 turnover differential team and that would be a massive step back from where they were. They were a statistical outlier. I believe that Coleman and Kincaid will improve some. I think Palmer and Moore are decent role players. They are as good as Mack was. But will that offset the regression in terms of “luck?” The pass catchers are near the bottom of the league. That’s not really debatable. The question is, “will it matter?” It didn’t last year but they had incredible luck and health on the OL. They were awesome. If any of that changes, the talent becomes more important. Is it enough? I believe the defensive additions will make a difference there. I expect the defense to be better. I don’t expect them to turn the ball over more. I do expect more pass rush though. I expect better run defense too. I expect the Bills to compete for the Super Bowl. That doesn’t mean that they are perfect. If they do fall short of their goal, what will be the reason? My guess is that it’s the lack of playmakers and questionable coaching. The defense will be better and Josh is incredible.

I think that this is a major part of the disconnect. Just because he doesn’t “need” a number 1 doesn’t mean that the offense wouldn’t be better with one. That’s obvious. The question becomes, can they keep winning with a bottom 5 WR room? We all hope so. Would they be better off if you plugged Metcalf at the top of the depth chart (for example)? Of course they would. You need to remember that the Bills were +24 in turnover differential last year. No other team was more than +16. Other than that no other team was more than +12!! That’s a massive gap. If the Bills even fall to 3rd best in turnover differential we are talking about almost an extra turnover a game that they either commit on offense or don’t get on defense. This is often lost in these conversations. The Bills had the fewest negative plays ever (turnovers and sacks). We shouldn’t expect that again or even close to it. When that regresses, even if it’s still good, will the playmakers around Josh be good enough to overcome it?

I do miss the 1:00 games so much. We do a pretty big tailgate that probably ranges from 20 to 100 in any given week. Usually we are probably 30 to 50 but it’s a lot of work. There are 4 of us that rotate hosting so we each take 2 games. It’s a ton of work to prepare and set up. It’s so hard for certain night games. If it’s a Monday or Thursday I just blow out of work at like 11. We are breaking it all down in the dark and it just sucks. I get home at like midnight - 1:00 and still have to empty the car. I may or may not be a few drinks in depending on if Jessica came and drove. It’s just miserable. Leaving the house at 7:30 - 8 AM for a 1:00 PM game is 👨‍🍳💋. We are set up by 9. We break down at 11:45 and are in the stadium by 12:30. We have a drink and are in our seats by the time that they run out. We either bring Italian home for dinner or hit up an Italian restaurant on the way home. It’s just perfect. Eff night games

I quoted facts and said do with it what you will. You’re the one hellbent on distorting those facts to fit your narrative. I asked you nicely to look it up before calling me a liar. Instead, you ended up getting exposed by the truth. It didn’t have to be this way. I’ve said in other posts, that it isn’t all Cooper. It isn’t none of Cooper either. Like everything, it’s a little bit of everything. I attribute 60% to his presence impacting the defense, 20% is coincidental and 15% to his performance. I’m not trying to deny that his presence had a significant impact. It would be really tough/impossible to make the argument that you’ve tried to make. The numbers don’t say that. I would have let you off the hook but you chose this route.

Then we are in vastly different places. He said if they got a 2nd they should jump. That’s not the market. If that was anywhere close to what was being offered he’d be gone. A 3rd sounds like the ceiling now and it could go potentially down as the season progresses. My offer is more like a 5th.

So then the question becomes, what’s the appropriate compensation for a 1 year rental, on an injury prone pass rusher, in their 30’s? It’s tricky. I was all about going after Watt until I talked to my buddy at the Steelers. Now I’m lukewarm. He knows WAY more than me as to what Watt has looked like recently. @BADOLBILZ comments echoed it. I guess I am at, sure, if it’s cheap to acquire him, go for it.

He will play for the vet minimum this year. His Jags contract has offset language. That means every dollar over the minimum that someone else wants to pay a dollar comes off the Jags deal. There is no incentive, at all, to play for more than the minimum. Gabe makes no more money.

I like Palmer, Moore and Samuel. Gabe has been a more productive NFL receiver than all 3. Coleman of 2024 is a worse player than Gabe Davis or 2022 & 2023. Again, I’m not advocating for or against Gabe but there is nothing to support that those guys are better than him at this point other than hope. It’s fine to be optimistic but to be like, “we don’t need Gabe because we have Josh Palmer & Elijah Moore” is crazy.

The other thing to think about with Davis is that his contract had offset language. That means he will be playing for league minimum. I don’t think that they have any WRs that they can cut and gain savings. Either way, Gabe is vet minimum. That will be important for whomever picks him up. He will almost certainly play for a contender for that reason. If he’s making the minimum no matter where he is, why wouldn’t he go to a contender that offers him the best opportunity?

Are we sure that they are all better or is that just because they are current Bills? Shakir is the only one that I’m sure is a better receiver than Gabe. Gabe is obviously limited but what he does is what they’re missing. I’m not advocating for or against Gabe. He’s a role player. The point is 4 of the 5 Bills receivers are roles players. The 5th is also a role player, he just happens to be top 5-10 at his role in the league.

They have asked the league to protect the Bills and Packers. I know that with 100% certainty. I do not know if the league always abides by that or just usually. I would be really surprised though if the league told the Steelers to pound sand. Those games are a draw regardless of who is there. When I was in the NBA the way that scheduling worked is that you got a certain amount of “vetoes” that they abided by. For example, the Pelicans never play home games from Thursday-Tuesday of Mardi Gras week. It would be a logistical nightmare so they go on the road. If I remember correctly, we could also make certain “requests” like “we would like to play a home game, in the afternoon, on MLK.”

I don’t hate it for the Bills. That’s what I was asking about. The problem, from their standpoint, is what do you do with him? You can’t pay him in the range of what Garrett got. He potentially cripples a cap if he’s done or about done. He’s a UFA after this year and will be 31 with lots of injuries. It’s a tricky situation.

I’ve always been on the belief that you want higher rows in the lower level and lower rows in the upper level.

FWIW, I have a very close friend at the Steelers as some of you know. I talked to him a couple of weeks ago on a few things. He thinks Watt is about to fall off a cliff and if they could get a 2nd, they should jump at it. This was before the draft and I’d imagine he’s even more emboldened.

I think Moore caught a lot of balls but not for a lot of yards. I think that he gets open better than most on the Bills. He also can get down the field even though he hasn’t been used to do that much in the NFL. He to me, feels like a guy that will be better in a Bills uniform than before. Disclaimer: I was a fan of his coming out so I’m sure some of my feelings are still driven by that.

Shakir Kincaid Moore Palmer Samuel Coleman Knox I did it in tiers and there is some movement within there (or could be). Shakir is the one guy that I think is “safe” so I put him in his own tier. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling but absolutely has the highest floor. He’s a really solid slot. He’s prime Beasley but better after the catch. Kincaid has been a disappointment. Joe Marino this morning went through a whole bunch of stats that should make us optimistic about a bounce back. He has the highest ceiling. Moore is a solid receiver and Palmer is too. They are both nice fits. They are pretty high floors with ceilings that are higher than where they have gotten to. Samuel is a good playmaker. He’s good with the ball in his hands but not a great WR. He’s a slash and should be much better this year. His ceiling is higher than most of these guys. The best version of Samuel is better than everyone but Shakir and Kincaid. Coleman has a high ceiling but a low floor. The end of the year for him was atrocious. I realize that he was coming off an injury but he’s never open. It’s tough to ever be more than a role player if every ball thrown your way is 50/50. If he develops his route running and stops looking for contact, he can be a weapon. Knox always feels like he deserves a larger target share but for some reason never sees it. He has a nose for the end zone and is good after the catch. He’s a role player but a quality one. If you had a name to insert above Shakir, BTJ or Ladd, for example, how much better would this group look? That’s the past though. The group has a lot of role players and they offer different skill sets. Hopefully it is enough. If it isn’t, I’m fine pulling the trigger mid season again to get a guy (maybe Olave).

If this was before Moore, I would have said it was a no brainer. Gabe can stretch the field even if he’s limited. I could see him coming back but will they keep 6 WRs or is a move on the horizon? For example, do they trade Samuel or even Keon? I highly doubt Keon but that’s not impossible (especially if they question his work ethic). Samuel would be the logical choice to be dealt if they wanted Gabe back. I’m going to guess though that Gabe ends up somewhere else. Ravens maybe? Cardinals?

They are working on stacking picks. This article is before the 3rd for Pickens: https://steelerswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/steelers/2025/05/02/2026-nfl-draft-steelers-updated-pick-projections-for-next-year/83408057007/. They can use those 3rds and 4ths to move up the board. Maybe they can get 2 2nds and still have a 3rd. Their own first, which could be early, 2 2nds and a 3rd may be enough for them to move up and secure their QB in a much better QB class. I suspect that they get a 2 and a little more for Watt. My buddy is there and thinks they should get whatever they can for Watt. He thinks he’s about to fall off a cliff.

I see a lot of people on Walker. He would be the opposite for me. At this point, he’s a lot of traits and not a very good football player. He’s a long term shot IMO. With that being said, TJ Sanders is a bit of the opposite. He’s a guy that scouts were higher on than talking heads. I always like those guys. He has a ton of skill and is a really good football player. I would not, at all, be surprised if he and Ed get a lot more pressure in the middle than we are accustomed to. Some other guys to watch out for: healthy Bosa, developing Solomon, and an under-the-radar Forest. Personally, I think that the safeties aren’t very good. Rapp is an okay starter and Bishop looked lost. Obviously, he will be given a chance to develop but Forest could pass either/both on the depth chart.

Interesting thought. You’re probably right. I can’t imagine that this would be something Rodgers wanted. The trade is an interesting one. Pickens has all kinds of ability but is an idiot. He’s an explosive playmaker that has played with 🗑️ QBs and voiced his frustration. We will see how it works in Dallas. Dak is much better than what Pickens has played with but so is Lamb. They’re either going to have an incredible passing game or it’s going to go up in flames. 🤣🤣

It’s a very fair question. There is no easy answer but it’s probably a little of both. The difference was so extreme that it’s not just coincidence. That may be a part of it but the offense was clearly much better with him. The triangle is a great analogy. The answer is TBD. I was obsessed with those 90’s Bulls teams. IMO, they don’t have a Pippen but have some of the other roles filled around Jordan. The OL is sort of Grant / Rodman doing the dirty work to help make it go. Kincaid to me is like Paxton / Kerr in that he can be a quality role player but rarely take over a game. Cook is a little like Kukoc in that he has a lot of ability but will never be the focus of the team. The receivers kind of remind me of Cartwright/Wennigton/Longley. They are the least talented of the starters but have a role. They’re never taking over a game but if they go out there and have 9 points and 6 rebounds they haven’t been a liability. Those Bulls teams would have won a lot of games because of Jordan. Would they have won all of those championships without Pippen? Shakir is the one sort of exception and he is somewhere between the BJ Armstrong and Paxson / Kerr. He’s the 3rd or 4th scoring option on a good team. Shakir is to the Bills what Jrue Holiday is to the Celtics offensively. To answer your initial question, I’d say something like 65% Cooper’s presence, 20% coincidence and 15% his production. Obviously, that’s subjective but to try to quantify it, that’s what I have. The Bills faced the 3rd least 2 deep in the NFL last year. I haven’t seen the breakdown by game, but I will bet my life, that they saw way more 2 deep in the games that he played vs. didn’t.

I pride myself on being honest and using numbers to support my argument. With that being said, I guess that we should look at the offensive numbers with Cooper and without to confirm what I said was true. I threw out the last New England game completely so as to not alter anything. There were exactly 8 other regular season games with him playing and 8 without him playing. In the 8 games that Cooper played, the Bills threw for 264.4 yards per game and scored 35.5 PPG. In the 8 games that Cooper did not play, the Bills threw for 203.6 yards per game and scored 28.1 PPG. For those of you that don’t think that 7.4 PPG difference is significant, the Bills finished 2nd in the NFL at 30.6 PPG. If you subtracted 7.4 PPG and were at 23.2 PPG they would have finished 12th. Don’t let people try to put their feelings in the way of facts. There they are. Do with them what you will…

Please go ahead and google the numbers before and after Cooper arrived. The numbers aren’t up for debate. Beane or McDermott talked about it last week. It was multiple PPG points and the passing game increased. My “assumptions” are based on facts and numbers. Using Cooper’s stats to debate the results is ridiculous. As I’ve now said to you 58 times in this thread, it isn’t just about what the player does!! It is also about how their presecence impacts coverage. I really don’t want to dig up the offensive numbers with and without Cooper. I’d prefer if you looked yourself or took my word for it. What you will find though is that they were way more effective once he got here for whatever reason.

The question ultimately becomes, “is what they did last year during the regular season sustainable?” The offense worked well until it didn’t. They didn’t have enough juice to get the score when they needed it. Their passing game regressed significantly but it was enough in the regular season. The OL was incredible as was Josh. They set a record for lowest negative plays ever. If that regresses to the mean, can they overcome it? We look at last year’s results and, if we are simple, can say it worked. If we look at all of the underlying reasons that it worked, is it reasonable to expect that again? p.s. The numbers were WAY better after the Amari acquisition.

This is a fun offseason thread!! You did a really nice job with it. The time between the draft and camp can be so slow. This was a nice break.