Kirby Jackson

Agree. Who are the 3 best players that changed teams this year in FA?

I generally agree. The FA & draft discussion is some of the best discussion of the year. In season, is just like a talk show. We just talk matchups or whatever. It’s fine but not as interesting. Lol, once you get between FA & the draft though you get some of this. 🤣🤣

Lol, my goodness 🤦🏻‍♂️. If you believe the league, and other owners, would allow a player to blow up the entire, collectively bargained, financial structure, you’re wrong. Normally, I’d say, “we disagree” but we are past that point. There are certain unspoken rules that govern the league. The league MVP, playing the most expensive position, can’t take 33% of his market value, because it blows up the entire system. It makes the entire model crumble. Opposing owners, other players, agents, can’t let that happen. You’re hung up on the literal words and are not willing to look at the practical application. If he took $40M they would hate it but let it fly. At $20M they all have to raise their collective hands because it destroys the model that is working so successfully. This clearly isn’t going to resonate, so in the interest of the conversation getting back on track, I’ll let it die.

That’s just not how it works in the real world. The players have collectively bargained 51% of the revenues (or whatever the number is). If the league MVP, wants to take 1/3 of his market value, the league/players/agents/NFLPA/owners wouldn’t allow it to happen. It blows up the whole system. Every contract and position would need changing. Those entities, including the owners, would NEVER allow for that level of chaos. That’s the real world. I am purposely using an extreme example to make the case but that’s from experience. It’s the unwritten rules that would come into play if something as extreme as Josh taking $20M AAV was on the table.

It’s semantics at this point. The NFLPA would pull every single lever needed to stop it. Now can they, as the NFLPA, technically, say no, as themselves, no. Could they make sure that it doesn’t happen to stop the entire financial system from collapsing? Of course. That’s the point. It isn’t that literal. If you think that the league would allow Josh Allen to sign a new contract, making him the 22nd highest paid QB in football, I have a bridge to sell you.

Again, yes and no. If Allen was adamant he wanted $20M and no more, the NFLPA wouldn’t let it happen. It would crush the entire ecosystem. Every contract for every player, would be crushed. They’d have to redo everything to get to the 51%. They would step in to prevent chaos.

The players and agents wouldn’t let that happen. That’s the point. That’s the real world. If Allen took $40M AAV they would cringe but accept it. If he tried to take $20M, it couldn’t happen. It would ruin everything, for everyone moving forward. How could Trevor Lawrence or Kyler Murray negotiate their next deal with Allen making less than 1/2 of the market? The cap is like 51% of revenues so the money would have to be redeployed. That’s just not how it works. There’s an “unofficial range” that all players/agents act within. That’s true in all sports. No one player will be allowed, by his peers or union, to break the system. Lol, that’s what I expected when I heard the “negotiating in the media” comment. It became clear that you aren’t looking for a rational solution, you’re looking for an emotional one. That’s not how it works but feel how you feel. I don’t get emotional as to what someone else wants for a salary. It doesn’t impact me. I want the Bills to win and every single thought on here is through that lens. I don’t care if they negotiate publicly or insult Josh’s mom. That’s not important to me. What’s best for wins and losses is what I want. To each their own…

It becomes what is “significantly less?” Allen taking $5M less than Dak isn’t a problem. If Josh took $20M less AAV than Tua, they’d have an issue. While the NFLPA isn’t as powerful as the MLB or NBA players unions, they can’t let that happen. It breaks the whole market. Brady didn’t take way less than the market. He took less than he could have gotten but he wasn’t the 22nd highest paid QB.

You don’t think that they liked paying for 30k+ posts? 🤣🤣

Whether or not they should pay them market value is a different question. Teams “being dumb” is how value is set. That’s how it works in sports. The players receive a % of the league revenue. It’s up to the teams to decide how to spend to that %. If Benford can get north of $20M AAV and Cook can get north of $12M AAV, why should they take less? Do you take less than your market value at your job? I moved to this company because my last company didn’t meet my market value. The market spoke and I moved. That’s the way that the world works.

You don’t care what they would get as FAs but they’re not worth what they think? That’s what I’m challenging. That’s not how it works. What the market will pay IS what their value is. That’s what they, and their representation, will be using to determine the contract. Otherwise, the players won’t sign here. Maybe Benford and/or Cook gets tagged next year but they aren’t going to take less than their value.

How much AAV would each get, if they were FAs today? I gave you the numbers that I think are realistic. It’s fine if you disagree with the $12.5 AAV and $24M AAV that I tossed out. Go on record with what you think each would get as FAs.

Yep!! This is the kind of stuff that we get until @Virgil starts the mock draft threads. That’s when the conversation gets going again.

We have officially reached peak offseason

So that’s new money. If they gave Benford a 3 year extension at $75M, that would amount to 4 years at an average of $19.6M. That’s a bargain IMO. If he hits the market next year, and is healthy all year, he will get that.

What do you think Benford is worth in this marketplace? Cook? They just understand the marketplace. In a world where, Carlton Davis, Paulson Adebo and Charvarius Ward are getting $18M AAV and Derek Stingley is getting $30M AAV where does that leave Benford? $24M AAV? Is he “overvaluing his worth” if that’s what he’s asking for? No, he’s looking to the marketplace to see what’s he’s worth. Will the Bills pay that? I think so. If he was a free agent today, would someone else pay that? Absolutely. The same goes for Cook. I think it settles at $12.5M AAV. Maybe a little more after the Barkley deal but that feels fair. If Cook was a free agent today, would he get that? 100% he would. We can’t look at Bills players in a vacuum when determining their worth. The market dictates their worth.

I don’t think so. He’s the league MVP. As an example, and an obviously unrealistic one, if Allen agreed to a 5 year, $100M extension, the NFLPA would take issue. It throws off the whole market. Now players are entitled to roughly 1/2 of the league’s revenue so it’ll be redeployed elsewhere, but that messes up the entire market. That would create complete chaos in the marketplace.

Sorry for the confusion. I was saying MAYBE they could wait until the 3rd for a DT that could start because of the depth of the class. I don’t suspect that they will but it’s possible. They could have their eyes on a handful of guys that are available in the late 2nd and hold off. As those guys come off the board, they jump up using some day 3 picks to get a 3rd (maybe like a Collins or Walker or West or Phillips).

He didn’t get open before the injury either. I mean, if you want to believe that the wrist was the reason that he couldn’t get open, go for it. He’s never beaten man coverage with hand fighting. That wasn’t what held him back after the injury.

I’m somewhere between “stayed the same” and “mildly improved.” I like that they retained some talent. I like the additions and think that they raise the floor and, in some cases, the ceiling. The draft will tell us how much better the roster is.

They really need him to be good. They are counting on it. He has some skills but the concerns coming out were on display last year. I don’t think he reaches Gabe’s level but he could be “early Gabe.” He can be a change of pace guy that makes some plays down the field. He’s also physical and a good blocker. He can help in the running game. I just don’t see him ever becoming a consistent producer as a WR because of his lack of separation. Throwing to covered guys isn’t efficient. To bring this back on topic, a WR is on the table in the first 2 rounds. It has to be. DT/CB/WR/Edge and MAYBE safety if an elite player is there.

If he had 1 leg, catching 10 of 29 would be awful. He was coming back from a wrist injury. That shouldn’t have impacted his ability to get open at all. His lack of separation will cap his ceiling as a role player. You can’t get 7 or 8 targets a game if you’re covered all 7 or 8 times you’re thrown to. It’s just not efficient. Keon is going to have to become a player that he wasn’t last year or in college. He MUST become a different player or he’s James Hardy. He’s a guy that you’ll throw some jump balls to and hope that he wins in the air down the field. He will see 4 balls a game and be a 40-50 catch guy.

I’m not sure that the bold strengthens the case against Rice/Worthy. It further adds to the point that those guys put up numbers despite having those guys not scaring anyone. Kincaid and Coleman not getting a lot of targets is as much a function of their ability to get open as it is the scheme. It’s an indictment on both of them. Coleman caught 10 of his last 29 targets!! That’s insanely bad. Rice and Worthy get the ball because they get open.

Rice had 79 for 938 and 7 TDs as a rookie. Last year, he was off to a monster start. He caught 24 balls in 4 games!! That’s a pace of 102 catches, 1,224 and 8 TDs. He looks like a star if he can stay out of trouble. Neither Kincaid, nor Coleman, have shown anywhere near that level. In fact, I’d trade them both, tomorrow, for Rice (assuming no suspension and healthy) or Puka.

I’m not going to MMQB it because I liked the Kincaid pick at the time (or at least didn’t hate it). With the benefit of hindsight though, both Rice and Puka are far superior players.