Kirby Jackson

It’s weird because the Bills would trade WR rooms or S rooms with Ohio State right now and be a lot better there. There were times Alabama had position groups like that as well. The biggest difference would be at the LOS. While these elite programs have NFL players everywhere, the guys at the LOS aren’t as physically developed or technically sound as NFL vets.

That was 2018. 2017 was Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson.

I think the thing that we aren’t all on the same page about is where the Bills end up. I’m thinking 14-3 at this point. If that’s the case, neither team is the competition for the 1 seed. That’s the Bills top priority. At 14-3, Baltimore would have to win every single game, including this week to finish ahead of the Bills. That’s not happening. I would say, the next biggest priority would be these 2 teams missing the playoffs. Personally, I think Baltimore goes regardless of the outcome of this game. They still likely win their division. The Chiefs still have a shot but I think that they are definitely the less likely of the 2 to get there with a loss. For context, both teams are currently 1-2. The Chiefs are -200 to make the playoffs and the Ravens are -1200. I am so bullish on th Bills record, I’m not worried about having to go to KC or Baltimore. I just don’t think it’s realistic. LA, maybe but they’re too far out on the others, especially Baltimore because they need to finish a game ahead of the Bills, not tied (assuming only 2 teams have the same record). It’s about avoiding playing them now vs. potentially having to go on the road and missing the bye. The Bills are -175 for the bye currently.

Whether Indy is real or not is TBD. At 3-0 in a bad division, they certainly are in the conversation for the forseeable future. If they play .500 from here on out, they’re in. The Jags are feisty too. The Colts are currently -350 on Draft Kings to be in the playoffs and the Jags -110. If you think that the Colts will be out you can get +270 on it right now. As a Yankee fan, I always think back to the series after the Boone home run. That series with the Red Sox was a war. By the time they got to the Marlins, they were already spent. There is a part of me that worries about that. I’d just assume they avoid KC. They don’t get more credit if they win the Super Bowl while beating KC along the way than they do winning the Super Bowl without ever playing KC.

You might be right. Who are the realistic WC contenders? One of the AFC South teams, Steelers/Ravens, MAYBE Bengals, KC, and Denver? I think, regardless of this week, Buffalo, Baltimore, LA and Indy/Jax are going to be 4 of the playoff teams. That leaves 3 spots for everyone else.

100% agree. Can you imagine the emotional toll that game would have on the Bills even if they won? It will be really tough for them to refocus the following week as they leave it all out there to get by the Chiefs. Give me the Colts or Broncos or Jags or some game that won’t have that level of stress on them.

We are saying the same thing then lol. KC losing is for the best. KC losing and they’re unlikely to be in the playoffs. If they win, both of these teams probably end up in the playoffs. I don’t think either is a threat to the 1 seed regardless. The Bills schedule is just too easy. Chargers are the only threat to the 1 seed and even that is a long shot. The Bills are -175 to be the top seed already!! That’s insane.

I think if the Ravens end up with 1 more loss they likely can’t get homefield from the Bills. 2 more and they almost certainly can’t. I guess it comes down to your opinion on where the Bills finish. I think 13-4 looks like the floor to me. I’m looking at everything through that lens. If the Bills go 14-3 it wont matter what either of these teams do. If they go 13-4 Baltimore would only be able to lose 1 more game. That’s not going to happen IMO. The Chiefs just aren’t good enough to be 13-4.

I think that the Bills will be 14-3 or better. 13-4 is probably the worst that they can be if Josh stays healthy. Neither Baltimore nor KC is getting there (and Baltimore would already need to be a game ahead of the Bills). The Chargers are the only real threat to the 1 seed IMO. I dont expect them to remain at this level but still good. I saw something the other day that said, teams that start 1-3 make the playoffs 14% of the time in this format. I actually think, because of their division, Baltimore would still be at 50% or better. I think even if they go 1-3, they finish like 10-7. If KC loses, they probably finish anywhere from 8-9 to 10-7. 10-7 probably is the floor for a WC. They are a very flawed team. I’d just assume KC be out of the playoffs. Our game against them, strangely isn’t going to be that important. They’re fighting for a WC spot if they lose this week.

Wasn’t Jason Taylor a 1st ballot guy? I think Mack is in that tier. I didn’t look at their numbers or accomplishments but I’m assuming that they are pretty close when Mack is done. Again, he may or may not be but it’s definitely not out of the question.

They were 11-0 in 1 score games!! They ALREADY have 2 losses. They can’t go on that kind of run. We are rooting against KC because a loss and they COULD be out of the playoffs. A win and they still aren’t a threat, at all, for the 1 seed. With the Lions win last night, and the Bills having the tiebreaker, Baltimore isn’t a threat to the 1 seed either. Neither team, regardless of the outcome, is a threat to the 1 seed. Baltimore is, likely, going to make the playoffs regardless of the outcome. KC probably drops to like a 20% chance at the playoffs with a loss.

There’s been worse resumes that have. He also was 1st team all-pro at 2 positions one year. 9 Pro Bowls, 5 all pros, all decade team and a DPOY award with 120 sacks or whatever is a HOF resume.

That includes them beating us. The Chiefs are 1-2. If they beat the Ravens AND the Bills, that would be 3-2. That means they’d need to go 10-2 in the above mentioned games to go 13-4 and be tied with what would be a 13-4 Bills team. If you were to bet on them to go 10-2 in those other 12 games, you’d get more than +1000 in Vegas. Basically less than 10% chance. The point you are missing is that KC pretty much can’t be 13-4 or better even with a win. The Bills are almost certainly going to be 13-4 or better regardless of a win or loss vs. KC. The Bills and KC pretty much can’t be tied and Baltimore is already functionally 3 games back. They are going to lose another game or 2 at least. If Baltimore wins this week they remain basically 3 games behind the Bills (assuming they beat the Chiefs). If Baltimore wins this week and finishes the rest of the schedule 11-2, they won’t be the 1 seed. They might be able to go 12-1 and not have the 1 seed!! They aren’t going to be 12-1. KC isn’t a threat to be 13-4 regardless of this weekend. Baltimore is but that still won’t be good enough. The Bills are going to be at least 13-4 and would have the tiebreaker over the Ravens.

I’ll take that!! If KC loses this week, it’ll take a lot for them to be a playoff team. They will then probably have to win on the road at Baltimore, LA or Indy to get to come to Orchard Park. This game really puts them on the ledge.

If the bills drop 3 other games that’ll mean that the Chiefs have to play: at Jags, Lions, Commanders, Colts, at Titans, at Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Raiders (x2), & Broncos (x2) 10-2 in these game PLUS beat the Ravens and Bills to factor in the tiebreaker with a 13-4 Bills team. Lol, that’s not happening.

Sure they can beat us. The Bills are probably 14-3(ish). They already have the tiebreaker over the Ravens. That means 1 more Ravens loss and the Bills would host them. They aren’t running the table so I’m not worried about that. The Chiefs have at LEAST 4 more losses on their schedule. They aren’t up for the tiebreaker either. So yes, it’s the Ravens.

They might just be too far back. They will certainly get better but if they’re 1-3, they still have to play at Jags, Lions, Commanders, at Bills, Colts, at Titans, at Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Raiders (x2), & Broncos (x2). 7 losses might miss the playoffs and 8 almost certainly does. Do they play the rest of those games 9-4 or better? Maybe but you’d almost certainly get plus money that they are 10-5 or worse. If they lose this week, they are unlikely to make the playoffs.

Yes. I want cake matchups on the way to the Super Bowl. I’d much rather play the Dolphins, Jets and Saints than the Ravens, Chiefs and Chargers. I want the Bills to win the Super Bowl. Why would anyone want that to be harder for them to do? That makes no sense. They don’t ask “how” they ask “how many.”

I don’t want either but the right answer is the Ravens. They are still going to bounce back and go to the playoffs (probably still win their division). There is a world where a 1-3 Chiefs team misses the playoffs.

Lane Johnson goes in on the first ballot. Bitonio and Hayward have to wait. Von Miller is 1st ballot. Khalil Mack and Saquon could sneak in on the 1st ballot. Jalen Ramsey has a 1st ballot resume. Calais Campbell probably waits but he too could go.

The Ravens are going to lose at least 2 more games imo. Their schedule isn’t impossible but they have the Lions, Rams, a Bears team that could be dangerous on any given day, their division, at the Packers, at the Chiefs and at the Vikings. They can probably only afford 1 loss to get the 1 seed because the Bills would have the tiebreaker. I just don’t see a lot of losses on the Bills schedule. It’s just too easy. If they play like they did Thursday (C or C+) they CAN lose a few times. I believe that is one of the worst games that they’ll play this year. The defense was bad and the offense too conservative. They thought that they’d win by showing up and avoiding mistakes. They were right. They have like 7 or 8 more games on their schedule like that. They can win without playing well. That leaves about 7 games that they need to play at a B or better. If they go 4-3 in those, the Ravens can’t get the 1 with more than 1 more loss!! That’s a wild way to look at it but it might be true. The Colts can’t sustain at this level and it’s TBD on the Chargers. They will have some sprinkled in there. Just keep stacking wins against these trash teams and crossing off weeks. Make the margin of error for the teams behind you smaller and smaller. Show up next week and bury a bad team early.

I’d sit him until at least the Pats game. I’m not pushing anyone (outside of Josh) at this point. These regular season games just don’t feel that important to me. The Bills should win 14ish games pretty easily. With the win over Baltimore, that’s likely enough for the 1 seed. The Bills played a C or C+game on Thursday and won by double digits. They don’t need to be pushing guys at this point. The Bills goals have moved. They aren’t worried about a playoff spot or winning the division any more. That’s a forgone conclusion. What matters, is getting by Baltimore and/or KC in the biggest game. It’s Super Bowl or bust. Approach this entire season through that lens. If they play a bad game, I don’t want to see anymore padded practices on a Wednesday. This is the time to be ultra conservative. Just keep stacking wins and be ready to go in January. It’s a nice place to be. That’s how the Pats were able to operate for years.

FWIW, my whole section was screaming, “someone get open!!” Lol, it wasn’t just me. Those guys were blanketed. It hasn’t burned them (yet). Thoughts on DJ Moore? His name is starting to show in some rumors. He feels like a guy that would absolutely help. He beats man coverage consistently. Moore feels like a rich man’s Shakir. I’d sign up for that (or a plethora of other guys).

So, I heard some stuff recently. The sales are “well ahead of where they expected them to be.” They were hoping to have the stadium full by training camp but it looks like they will be there just after the Super Bowl and well before the draft. They are currently ahead of what they envisioned as a best case scenario.

Davis isn’t very good; he has slow feet. I call him Zack Moss 2.0. In my opinion, he may be the worst player on the 53. I think Johnson is pretty good. He has struggled a little this year but he’s smart and versatile. I’m fine with him being the number 2. Cook has become a star. The people saying that, “if Cook holds out, screw him, we will be fine because we have Ray Davis” deserve to be tarred and feathered for their horrendous football take. 🤣🤣