Kirby Jackson

Devil’s Advocate: they still weren’t picking higher than 10. They may have had no shot at the top 4 QBs already. They got that monkey off their back, cleared a lot of cap space and became a more desirable destination in FA.

The Manning situation was different. He was coming off of a spinal fusion surgery and was 36 years old. Luck was considered the best QB prospect since Peyton and they had a chance to land him. It’s apples and oranges. Andrew Luck is 28 and the Colts have the 3rd pick. They are not guaranteed a top 2 QB. A team will have to do a thorough physical and review of his records. The Colts aren’t just going to move on from him. It will take a ton to wrestle him away. Someone will pay it if he is available. I actually think that the Bills make as much sense as anyone. They can give the Colts a LT and 3 1sts. The Bills become an instant contender and still have cap space (and lots in 2019) and 3 other picks in the 1st 3 rounds. A sample: QB - Luck (trade) RB - Shady / Sonny Michel (2nd round) WR - Benjamin/Richardson (fa)/Zay FB - Dimarco LT - Dawkins LG - Richie C - Groy RG - Miller RT - Austin Pasztor (FA) DE - Hughes DT - Kyle Williams DT - Harrison Phillips (2nd round) DE - Shaq WLB - Milano MLB - Preston Brown (re-sign) SLB - Darius Leonard (3rd round) CB - Tre White CB - Gaines (re-sign) S - Hyde S - Porter edit: Glenn was traded in this situation so I had to remove him

Yeah, that OL could be elite (especially with a return to a pure power scheme). Miller would even be a good fit.

I was once one of the greatest PSL sellers...

Agree to disagree then Also, no one is trading for that guy without him making giant leaps. He is never going to see the field so how will they see those giant leaps? He’s much more likely to be out of the league than on the field. 5th round guys that play poorly come and go all of the time.

That I could see.

In your scenario they traded for Smith and drafted a guy early. That puts Peterman as a distant 3rd with no real chance of ever seeing the field. It’s why they got rid of Yates last year. You can find a guy on the street to give you what that guy gives you. The next Foles?!? Foles was a 3rd round pick that completed 61% of his passes as a rookie and had more TDs than INts. In year 2 he had 27 TDs and 2 INTs. Peterman has shown nothing to indicate that he is like that. Every single thing that scouts worried about with him has been magnified when he got a chance. He will never be a player for that reason. He isn’t accurate enough to have that little arm strength.

I do. I’d love an OL of Dawkins-Richie-Price/Groy-Price/Groy-Glenn

Is an inactive Peterman a better use of a roster spot than Joe Webb or Colt Anderson to play ST? That’s what we are talking about. Imo, it’s an easy decision. I’d never waste a roster spot on him in that situation. If your QB ever went out you sign a guy like Shaun Hill to be your backup.

Maybe so, I didn’t really dig into it Why would you keep Peterman if you had Smith and a 1st rounder? That’s a waste of a roster spot.

They would NEVER deal him for that. If they would take less than 3 1sts it’s because he will never be healthy and no one will pay it. If he is traded it’s because the team believes that he is healthy and that will be the cost.

Smith’s cap hit in 2018 in $20.6M, the dead space from Tyrod is $8.64M. That’s $29.24M plus whatever you traded for him. I’d rather move up for Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold.

The only difference is that Luck is going to cost 3 1sts vs. a 3rd for Smith.

Smith will cost you AT LEAST a 3rd and a cap hit of over $29M when you add in the dead cap from releasing Tyrod. That doesn’t seem like a route that Beane will go. He wants a franchise guy. IMO, Cousins, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Luck are the 5 guys that meet that. Some are easier to do than others but I’d expect one of those guys or a placeholder vet. Smith doesn’t check that box for me as he is $29M plus a 3rd (minimum).

Just ask Kobe...

I’ve made the case elsewhere but it isn’t even a terrible idea for Indy. Their roster stinks. They could get their LT, draft a QB at 3, take 2 more good players at 21 & 22 and get an extra 1st next year. They already have Brissett as a viable placeholder. They could turn Luck into: - Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield - Cordy Glenn - Marcus Davenport - Josh Jackson - 2019 1st That’s not a bad haul for a team with as many needs as they have. They could grab Sony Michel in the 2nd and Anthony Miller in the 3rd. They aren’t close to winning otherwise. That would be a good start for a rebuilding team to go along with Malik Hooker.

We are in agreement. If they want to address the QB they will have to make the investment whether it be money (Cousins) or picks (top guys). This is a good QB year IMO and a good time to take that chance.

I think that this is probably right on. I am really intrigued by the Luck plan (regardless of the cost). I’d give both 1sts, next year’s 1st and Glenn assuming the doctors are comfortable with his shoulder. You’d have a chance to have an elite QB, you’d still have cap space and a bunch of draft capital. In 2019 you’d have a ton of space (even without the 1st). You could win a championship going that way.

Yeah, they’d add 4 day 1 starters and a guy capable of being a star at RB. That would be a massive upgrade to the talent on this roster.

I would say that there is a decent chance that Rudolph and/or Jackson is there in round 2. Some team is going to sign Cousins and 4 teams are going to take Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen. Additionally, someone made trade for Alex Smith. That is 6 teams addressing the QB before the middle of the 1st round!! I’m not saying that waiting is a good plan. I don’t think just grabbing a guy to do it is a good plan either. That’s the EJ strategy. The goal isn’t to get “a” guy it is to get “the” guy. Either do what you need to do that or move on. Tyrod, in my scenario, represents “bridge vet.” I have the odds of “bridge vet” at 65%. If the Bills go with “bridge vet” I think that they take a QB before the end of round 2. I’m not saying it is right or wrong it is what I think that they will do. You can insert any of about 8 guys as “bridge vet.” At the cap cost though I’d say Tyrod is as likely as just about any of them.

The questions raised is what if they can’t get Cousins or or trade up? That is what I am responding to. That is the topic of this thread.

He adds $10M of dead space. Anything over $8M a year would add cap spending to the position this year. As an example if the Bills release Tyrod and add Bridgewater at $18M, it will be $28M of cap cost. Again that assumes a 1 year deal with all of the money hitting at once.

I’m not sure that is the best course of action either but it’s the route I think they will go. Agree that they have a ton of holes. There is a chance that they can plug a few starting spots in the draft. Bills Wire just did a 7 round mock that does that: http://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/28/full-buffalo-bills-7-round-nfl-mock-draft-1/

If Tyrod is retained I think that they draft a guy by Round 2. Maybe it is Rudolph or Jackson? With FA being before the draft I think that we have a sense for how aggressive they will be based on the veteran that they have. If they land Cousins they probably take a guy a little later with some upside. If it is anyone else I expect the Bills to take a QB in the 1st 2 rounds. Also, I know we have talked a lot about Alex Smith and I am starting to think that isn’t really an option. Beane is constantly talking about finding “a franchise QB.” Alex Smith is the definition of a solid vet. I don’t see the Bills being convinced that is him. The Bills will likely have a placeholder vet and an early pick QB. I’d say that is 65%, I’d say a trade way up is 25%, Cousins is 8% and Luck at 2%.

I guess that it boils down to “are you better off with Davenport on the outside and Shaq on the inside or Vea on the inside and Shaq on the outside?” If Shaq is as versatile as it seems he might be they can take the better player. I would imagine that the pass rush would be better with Davenport on the outside and the run defense better with Vea on the inside. If you can’t have both which is the preference?