Kirby Jackson

The shelf-life on stadiums is getting shorter and shorter. The Titans and Browns are replacing stadiums that are 25 years old. I think that about 30 years (or less) is going to be the new norm.

The numbers don’t lie. They were virtually identical. Darnold was the 3rd pick and Fields the 11th. They weren’t vastly different as prospects. Both were elite college QBs, with elite pedigrees and tons of talent. Each had horrible situations in their first stop. Fields, slightly, outperformed Darnold. I attached the numbers. A horrible organization making a horrible trade doesn’t change that. Obviously you like Darnold, a lot. He’s my 19th best QB. My entire point is that Fields (currently my 28th QB) can be in that area. He has that opportunity. When given an opportunity, he has performed, at or a little above, Darnold (until last year). He has the chance this year, that Darnold did last year, with no competition. He’s going to get a full season to prove it. I will die on the hill that they were in a similar place after 3 years. This has nothing to do with feelings and everything to do with actual numbers. Fields didn’t command much in a trade because the Bears had zero leverage. Caleb Williams was considered generational. The Jets could have elected to stick with Darnold and draft Chase or Sewell. They didn’t believe in him enough to do that so they rolled the dice on Zach Wilson, a prospect nowhere near that of Caleb Williams. The Panthers, a terrible organization, with a bad GM, made a crazy offer so they took it. That doesn’t prove anything.

I based it on actual numbers not perception. That elite Carolina front office, wrongly, thought that they could rehab Darnold. They couldn’t. It failed miserably. Maybe you didn’t like that the numbers showed nearly identical performances, with slightly more scoring and less turnovers from Fields. Both were in awful situations as young players. Here is the comparison of their most recent year in NY and Chicago respectively. One would assume that their play was improving instead of regressing in year 3. Darnold: 2-10 record, 59.6 completion %, 203 total YPG, 11 TDs, 13 turnovers Fields: 5-8 record, 61.4 completion %, 248 total YPG, 20 TDs, 13 turnovers Again, you continue to argue that they were in a vastly different place exiting NY and Chicago. They weren’t. If anything, Fields was playing better than Darnold. Scott Fitterer isn’t to be confused with Howie Roseman. The deal he made for Darnold was a disaster. The trade comp is a function of situation and bad teams more so than who was playing better at the time. Teams still had confidence in Darnold which is why he got a shot last year, and probably would have even if McCarthy stayed healthy. It’s the same reason that the Jets handed the reigns to Fields without any real competition this year. They are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with Fields like the Vikings did last year (or at least the first half of last year) with Darnold. I like Darnold. I think he’s pretty good. He was my 19th ranked starting QB when I did the list a month ago. He’s fine. He’s a decent starting QB and just signed a contract saying pretty much that.

I don’t think Fields is a guy, or any of those guys, are the guys that you build around. That’s why I used the Darnold (and Geno) examples. They got 3 year deals. That’s what I think Fields could get. If he plays well this year, he could get a bridge deal like that. If he excels in that bridge deal, as Baker has (shouldn’t expect that) he will get a massive deal. He can’t get that coming out of this year IMO. He will need to “prove it” for multiple seasons. That’s what Darnold basically has to do.

He literally was better late in his time in Chicago than Darnold was late in his time with the Jets. Fields went for a similar package to Baker (the best of all of them). The difference is, the Steelers didn’t play him so they avoided it becoming a 4th. Randy Moss was once traded for a 4th. Trade compensation doesn’t mean much to me. Had the Bears decided to trade Fields before announcing that they were picking Caleb, they cwould have gotten more. Player A: 13-25 record, 225 total YPG, 59.8 completion %, 50 total TDs, 46 turnovers Player B: 10-28 record, 235 total YPG, 60.3 completion %, 54 total TDs, 41 turnovers In case you didn’t guess, player A is Darnold in NY and player B is Fields in Chicago. To say, “there are levels to this” is just wrong. They were pretty similar, with a slight edge to Fields. That holds especially true if you look at the most recent season for each in NY & Chicago.

Then Darnold was bad in Carolina and SF. He was no better with the Jets than Fields was with the Bears. In fact, Fields improved with the Bears, while Darnold regressed with the Jets. Fields went to his next stop and went 4-2 (with 2 losses by a FG) prior to being replaced by Russ. The Steelers got worse finishing the year with 4 straight losses (to mostly good teams). Fields was traded for a 6th because EVERYBODY knew he was being replaced by Caleb Williams and they didn’t need to send any decent assets. Context matters here. Fields after Chicago was in better shape as a prospect than Darnold after the Jets.

Kaiir is a FANTASTIC human being. It didn’t work out here for a variety of reasons. It just wasn’t a good fit. I wish him nothing but the best in Dallas and hope that he becomes a star.

You can add Geno to that as well. We’ve seen some guys, with talent, fall out of favor, and catch on elsewhere. I’m not saying Fields will be Josh, or even Baker, but can be Darnold. He was more of a journeyman when he got his break. There are a handful of other guys that could break through with the right opportunity like Darnold and Baker did (Fields, Zach Wilson, Joe Milton, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones). To be clear, I’m not projecting any of these guys to be great or to do that. I do think, with an opportunity, it’s possible that any of them could turn in a Darnold type of season and land a deal similar to his. If the Fields injury isn’t that bad (he appears fine), he looks like the one to get the chance now (maybe Daniel Jones too).

He was okay at times in Chicago especially in his last year. They just had the 1st pick so of course they’d look at QB. He was okay in Pittsburgh as well. He’s not Josh Allen but he’s not Anthony Richardson either. Hes 26 years old. Over the last 2 years, he is 9-10 (on not great teams) with 30 TDs and 15 turnovers. Again, he could be an average to low end starter. This was his chance because he was going to have the job without a real threat behind him (at least for this year).

He could have been Sam Darnold. One average season (middle of the league ish) and he’d be looking at 3 years and $100M with $40M guaranteed. There’s no reason to dump on a guy that might have lost his last opportunity on July 24th. That sucks any way that you look at it.

I have a soft spot for Justin Fields. This sucks. He was finally getting a chance to “be the guy” without any reason to look over his shoulder. Hopefully he’s okay.

You can pay it up front, interest free before next season or finance it over 10 years. @Just Jack would have ownership once it’s paid for. You can just not renew the tickets.

Teams, generally, don’t want to start the rookie and THEN go back to the other guy. Usually, they’d let the other guy start, and then, pull him in favor of the young guy. If Levis wasn’t going to start week 1, he wasn’t going to be playing at all this year.

I just ask because we get very homerish at times. That’s why I used the 70 executives. If you think that they are close, sure. You’re entitled to your opinion. It’s not an opinion shared by coaches/scouts/execs. Shakir went from underrated to overrated on here in 1 year. He’s a role player. A good role player but a role player. If you flipped Wilson for Shakir, straight up, the Bills are a heavy Super Bowl favorite (and probably have at least 1). There’s a difference but we are all entitled to our opinions.

Do you want a couple? PM me.

I would say everyone in the top 5 would be considered superstars. You named 3 backs and I’d add Bijan and Gibbs. Difference makers and all-pro type players. WR maybe has more than 10. I think of guys like Higgins, BTJ, and Devonta Smith as right around that area. Are they stars or superstars? It’s debatable and I’d listen on guys like that at WR. Personally, I think both Dawkins and Brown are elite. The Bills OL is outstanding. If those guys were FAs they would likely be, at, or near the “best available” at OT. That would generate big dollars.

Just scrolling through and we have a pretty liberal interpretation of “superstar” when it comes to our own guys. 🤣🤣 My perception is that you need to be top 5 at your position, or top 10 for important positions (QB, LT, WR, pass rusher) to be considered a superstar. Go back and ask yourself, “is ______ one of the best 5 or so players at his position?” If your answer is, “no,” he isn’t, or isn’t about to be, a “superstar.”

The Bills “likeliest” guys to elevate to “superstar” don’t play positions that we associate with superstars. Benford is the obvious choice. Ed Oliver has the ability to ascend into the elite tier. Spencer Brown is one of the game’s best RTs. James Cook is the one skill player that could become a superstar but a lot of Bills fans don’t like him because he wants a contract extension. They don’t have any edge rushers or WRs that belong near the conversation. The edge rushers and pass catchers don’t belong near the “star” conversation, forget about superstar. I’ll say Cook strictly based on position. If he ever plays on 3rd downs he could become one of the top 5 RBs in the game. That’s generally what I think of with a superstar. Are you top 5 at your position?

How so? He’s certainly behind St. Brown, Ladd, Godwin, JSN, probably Jayden Reed. That’s just guys off the top of my head. If you count guys that split time like Ceedee Lamb, Zay Flowers, Chase, Garrett Wilson, he falls more.

The Bills already signed him…

Didn’t know that they differentiated the tackles on the list. The tackles are excellent.

Help me understand this because this kind of thing confuses me. Are you saying that, “if they had a guy, that we all agree is better, he would be less impactful than Shakir?” If the Bills traded Shakir, straight up for Metcalf, they’d be worse off? Wouldn’t that mean that Shakir belongs ahead of him then? We aren’t factoring in “situation.” It is meant to be, “where would he be drafted if every WR in football were available to be picked?”

I think Sanders ends up being an important player for this team. He is a guy that scouts and “football people” liked more than talking heads. This contract should help get him into camp. Guarantee him 90% and let’s go.

Pretty interesting take factoring in their initial perceptions. Good take. 👍