Kirby Jackson

Are they? I’m not saying that they definitely are or aren’t but they are pretty close IMO. I’d say both teams had good OLs (slight advantage to present), 2017 better at RB, both teams are bad at WR (advantage to present), 2017 better on DL & DB, present better at TE & LB. Present is better at OC & 2017 was better at DC. 2017 had more “elite” players (guys that are top 5-10 at their position). Josh Allen is the difference.

You see things all of the time that are like, “what would _______ record be if you took (insert QB here) off the roster?” The answer is, “it depends.” Are you replacing ______ with the current backup? Jameis? Peterman? Mason Rudolph? The Geno Smith scale basically assumes that you would be giving that team as mediocre QB play as possible. Again, that’s not meant to be insulting. It’s basically saying that the QB isn’t necessarily elevating or hurting your team. He’s just kind of there as a net neutral. I feel like it’s the fairest way to tell how good a roster actually is. If you replaced Josh Allen with Peterman, for example, the Bills might win 2 games. If you replaced him with Geno, they may win 7. If you replaced him with Lamar, they still win 13.

That’s fair. I do it simply through the quality of the roster. It’s a hypothetical. If you were to go through each game, it would look different. I don’t have the bandwidth to look at every NFL game and decide what the outcome would have been for each team if Geno played. The Chiefs were 12-0 in one score games last year. I think that their roster, outside of OL, is better than the Bills. They wouldn’t have won many games last year, despite Mahomes not being himself, with Geno instead.

You’ll be able to tell who overrates the Bills roster the most by applying “wins without Allen.” This isn’t a very good football team, lacking playmakers, without Allen. I have this metric that I apply to teams to determine quality of roster outside of QB. It’s the Geno Smith scale. Basically, you pull off the starting QB of each team and replace him with Geno Smith. I think Geno is about the most average QB in football. That’s not meant as in insult. It means that he’s right around the middle. If you replaced Lamar, for example, with Geno, I think that the Ravens still win 10ish games. He might win 11 or 12 on Philly. The Bills would win maybe 7.

The Cook situation is an interesting one. Josh excluded, he’s clearly the best playmaker on the offense. He’s been really good in big games. He is a big play waiting to happen and a quality receiver. He’s young and has low mileage. I looked at it either before or after this season (think it was after) and he only has 70 more touches than Ray Davis through college & the NFL!! Cook is still ascending. The flip side is he’s a RB. He can’t pass block limiting his snaps. RBs are found all the time. It’s the one position that you can throw a body at and it’ll work. The Bills have 2 other capable options on the roster already. Are these options as good as Cook? No; they certainly aren’t. Is Cook at $12.5M (where I think it will be) a better option than the current stable plus a draft pick (or JK Dobbins if Cook actually holds out this year)? That is the question.

That’s where I’m at. I never thought about the ROI on it. I thought, “what is a better use of money while living in Buffalo?” The Bills are something that I spend my money on, and never regret it. My brother and I each have 2. I have a little boy on the way just after Thanksgiving and he had one born 4 weeks ago. We will be able to bring these little boys up like we were.

That’s fair and Legends definitely knows what they’re doing. They are the best at this. I’m suggesting that they’ve likely, already, tweaked pricing from their original plan to get to where they are. It may be minor. It may be major. It may not have happened. They monitor trends, close percentage, demand, the WNY markst, etc… You have to be nimble IMO with a whole stadium to sell. From my own experience going through the process, it felt like the pricing was a little reactionary. We held off after the trip through because it was more than we wanted to pay. We were told that’s what they have available now. Less than a week later, we were called, moved across the aisle, and saved 25%. That could be coincidental but it didn’t feel like it. It felt a little like a car negotiation. Basically they knew we were going to be in and paying a big number. It felt a little bit like, “a bird in the hand” from them. Again, it’s a little anectodal but it felt like they left $20k on the table between my brother and I. We ultimately would have paid it but it became a matter of who will blink first. It COULD be coincidental but I doubt it. It seemed like they did what they needed to get the deal done and they slid us across the aisle (literally the seats next to the ones we looked at) to get it done. They save face by moving us 4 seats further from midfield. They get 4 club seats sold and we save 25% a piece.

It depends. That’s pretty much been the point all along. They don’t release other pricing tiers until they need to. That’s why they were always going to sell out. They’ll make sure it happens. What was the revenue target and how close to it are they? That’s the real question and the only one that matters. We will never know that answer. The PSLs were always going to sell out. That’s easy to do. Doing it for a number that you wanted, or even higher, is the challenge. I doubt that they hit their revenue goal.

Such a good post!! Maybe it won’t matter but they are trying to zig while others zag. It hasn’t worked to this point.

This is correct. It hasn’t been this or that. It has been this AND that. Maybe correcting one of the two will be enough to get a Super Bowl? Maybe it won’t. Either way, the pass rush hasn’t been good enough NOR have the WRs been good enough.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-cornerback-rankings-top-32-ahead-of-2025-nfl-season

I don’t care if he’s here this week or not. In fact, I kind of hope that he isn’t. That’ll speak more to the culture IMO. Take this week and focus on family. Come back next week and go from there. Josh missing this week doesn’t impact the results of the team one iota.

Yeah, I don’t think it can be right. I thought it was a conversion rate of 80%? My guess is that they are right around 50k of the 62k. There’s a few thousand holds in there. I’d think that there are maybe 8k or so left. I don’t think we will ever see actual data but based on anecdotal stories of what was left for recent visits, that would feel about right. They should be close to through the current people. The ones in our group are entering year 4 or 5 and sit in 335. They went the last week of April. After that would be 300 level with less seniority than that. It can’t be a giant universe. Who knows how long it’ll take to get through that group.

Seriously?!? I’m 44 (today actually) and have been to a few dozen weddings I’d say. That was the 1st that I’ve ever been to without one (at least that I remember). Keep in mind, I grew up in a big Italian family that loves the vino.

I wouldn’t know how many he invites. It’s probably somewhere between like 6 or 7 and 50.

Has anyone ever been to a wedding without an open bar? I once went to one, in fact it was a dry wedding. They are super religious. It was in rural Arkansas. I drove through a tornado to get there. I’d never experienced a tornado prior (or since). I wish it would have gotten us, Wizard of Oz style. Anyways, that was the first time I heard of a wedding without an open bar. If you can’t afford an open bar, invite less people. If your religious beliefs prevent you from serving alcohol, don’t invite me. Don’t invite anyone. No one wants to be there otherwise. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. Congrats to Josh & Hailee 🥂

I think that the golf buddy part is certainly right. Those guys were at the bachelor party. We know Dion is invited (he said as much). Knox and Kincaid are two of his closest friends on the team. I’d add Trubisky for sure. I would guess Hyde and Poyer. Everyone else depends on how many Bills he has there.

Ranking the order of extensions IMO: - Benford (best player, premium position) - Shakir (great at his job, great contract, premium position where they’re thin) - Rousseau (good role player, good contract, premium position, still upside) - Cook (best playmaker on the team not named Allen) - Bernard (team leader, knack for big plays, regressed, non premium position, good player behind him)

Fair point but Tom Brady and Alex Guerrero aren’t walking through that door. That team hasn’t been the same since Bob Kraft rolled up to Orchids of Asia with $59 in his pocket and a twinkle in his eye.

I don’t think that 25k number is inclusive. It’s probably missing the premiums which is like another 10k or so. It may also be accounts, not seats. I don’t know the average number of seats per account for the Bills. If it is 2, that could make sense. That would be 80%. The math isn’t mathing otherwise. I think that the 80% number is probably right. My guess is that the Bills current retention is 95%+. I could see a 15% variance with the PSLs entering. Either way, it’ll end up full. They’ll tweak the pricing if need be. They’ll dump large chunks to broker partners at a discount if need be. They’ll sell as many PSLs as they planned to sell. That was never in doubt. That’s easy to do because you can manipulate the inventory in so many ways to get it sold. How close are they to the revenue target is a much more interesting question?

I don’t think he went off the rails. This is who he is and always was. It’s just more public now with Cardi B. There are tons of stories about Diggs off the field that sound like this. He’s an unmarried, rich athlete that parties in the social media era.