Kirby Jackson

I agree to a degree. It isn’t linear though. They had a draft guy on WGR this morning and he said that these 3 WRs are the 3 highest graded WRs over the last 3 drafts. In other words, they would have been the first one off the board last year or in 2022. I don’t think 1 out of 3 guys with their draft grades bust. They just happen to be in the same draft.Those top 3 guys all grade out favorably to Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Addison, JSN, Flowers, London, Dotson, and Jameson Williams. Now if you want to say of: Mitchell, Coleman, Worthy, Franklin, McConkey, Legette, etc… 2 or 3 will bust, I’ll buy it. That’s part of the reason that I’m fine with the capital to go all of the way up. By spending the capital you’re all but assuring yourself of production. Now you might not get the best of the 3 but you’ll get a good player.

Just to be clear no one is “defending it” just accepting it. Also, if you’re making $22 and hour, you shouldn’t be buying a PSL. You absolutely aren’t buying a PSL now. If you’re making $22 an hour, having season tickets now is a stretch.

Matt Harmon was on WGR like a month ago and went through separation stats for college receivers and how it translated. Of the people that got similar separation to Coleman ONLY Collins was any good. It was guys like Bryan Edwards and some others. Basically 5% of guys like him have succeeded. FWIW, Johnny Wilson is even worse. I’m not trying to beat “math” when there are so many other viable options. I don’t see this as a Josh situation in terms of raw either. I’ll take raw in a guy like Legette that separates. The floor is FAR too low with Coleman for a team that HAS to get production immediately.

Xavier Thomas was once one of the top 5 recruit. He has elite tools and minimal production. I’d buy that lottery ticket with one of those 4ths all day long. He could end up being really good. He might suck. I’ll gamble on talent with question marks in the back half of the draft.

With the exception of Coleman those are my least favorite “options” at 28 and 60. The Bills need to account for almost 200 targets between the two guys that they add. A poor route runner and a guy that takes plays off don’t scream volume. Wilson has speed but is a poor route runner. Some people like him but I don’t think that he’s quick enough for a guy that size. He’s competitive and has some speed but a lot of guys do in this class. He hasn’t really produced at a high level either. He’d been fine. I’d be okay with him in the 4th but would much rather have someone like Pearsall at the same pick. Mitchell is inconsistent. He has the ability of an elite number 1. He has the production of a talented guy that takes plays off. He’s good when he wants to be. If you’re going to be the alpha in the WR room you better set the tone. Diggs and Gabe were two of the hardest workers on the team. Mitchell isn’t that guy (although Wilson is). I will support wherever the board ends up and hope that I’m wrong if it is Coleman, Wilson, and/or Mitchell.

Why do people keep telling me Roman Wilson is good? What am I missing? Also, AD Mitchell gives me George Pickens vibes. The ability is there when he wants it to be. He doesn’t feel like the type of person that the Bills want as the alpha in the WR room.

I think that they do have some people like that but it’s a rounding error in terms of how many. I don’t know how they’ll handle it. I also don’t know how NY would get the data unless the Bills supported it? The Sabres situation is being driven by the Sabres with the “cover” of NY’s law. That’s the only way that the state would have the data. If you recall the Sabres tried to limit single game purchasing to certain zip codes prior. It didn’t work but there’s history of them trying to control who comes in.

I think a vet is possible as the 2nd option. I do think though, in 2024, WRs transition in pretty seamlessly. If one of the guys that they draft is a great route runner (like McConkey for example) I think that guy will see a lot of balls. If they go with raw physical skills (like Coleman for example) that guy won’t see volume early on. That’s some good for thought that really didn’t dawn on me until responding. If the Bills do have 200ish targets to go around there are certain prospects more capable of taking on a heavy target share early.

My numbers had already account for Diggs’ targets to drop by like 35. I’m sorry. I misunderstood. I haven’t read the whole thread. I thought that you were advocating waiting until the 4th to add their 1st WR. I think that it’s reasonable to wait until the 4th to try to add the 2nd guy. I wouldn’t but that’s not insane. That holds especially true if they go up for one of the big 3. I don’t think Javon Baker makes it to the 4th but he would be amazing. There are guys in that range that have different skill sets. The Bills picked the right draft to be desperate for WR help. This draft is LOADED at the position.

I like him too. He can do a lot of what Diggs did. There are a lot of guys in this draft that I can talk myself into. Keon Coleman is the only guy that I’m having a hard time with. His separation is just abysmal. With the exception of Nico Collins, the guys with the worst separation over the last decade have sucked as pros. I don’t think that the Bills have the luxury of trying to “beat the odds” with the WRs early.

The point being, that the Bills partners have already paid that fee. A brokerage like Ace (for example) owns hundreds of season tickets throughout the state of NY. These are professional organizations with full time staffs. The Sabres had/have some real broker partners like that. They also have a bunch of people that buy season tickets knowing that they can sell a bunch to cover their cost. They sell the Leafs, Habs and 15-20 more games to cover the entire cost. That’s what they’re trying to stop. It’s the amateurs trying to make a business out of it.

I guess that we just have a different idea of how often they will throw. I have them at 36 pass attempts a game. Without big play availability that feels about right. They averaged 33 pass attempts a game with Brady. That’s a little bit misleading though because they only threw the ball 15 times vs. Dallas. We disagree at how often the Bills will throw. We also disagree that the rest of those guys are capable of taking that kind of target share. Some of these guys were productive with low target share and low attention from the defense. The Bills don’t have anyone that scares teams in the passing game with the exception of maybe Kincaid (if he keeps developing). The rest of those guys are role players and without an alpha in the room they are going to be defended like top players. That’s not ideal. The Bills NEED an alpha. All of those guys need that guy to take attention. If the Bills top receivers are on the roster now, they won’t go to the playoffs. they have to get 1 of the top 3 or 2 of the top 12. They can’t bank on “hoping” to be right in the 4th or 5th. That’s not an option any longer. It was a bad idea when Diggs was here. Now, it isn’t a thought.

My bad, didn’t see that. I assumed that it was the Sabres. Either way, NY isn’t going to shut down the Bills from collecting every dime possible for the new stadium that they are paying hundreds of millions for. They want this to go smoothly. The Bills broker partners are all licensed brokers. They aren’t partnering with guys that have signs that say, “who needs tickets” on one side and “I got tickets” on the other. It’s people like Ace Tickets out of Boston that they are partnering with. That’s a hilarious call. I have no idea why Kleinhans. It feels like some out of town firm asked for things that would connect with locals. I’m not sure how it got here but that’s what they’re going with.

It’s like ground level where the teams come out.

They need them as much to be a “threat” to open up those guys. The Bills have a bottom 3 WR room in the league right now (with the Giants and Chargers). I’d have the Bills at 31. That’s awful. That holds especially true when your best player is your QB. Help him. In terms of targets, I think that there are 200(ish) targets currently available. These 2 guys (one could come in FA or trade) but the Bills will be adding 2 guys that will receive 80+ targets. Here is what I had for targets prior to the Diggs trade: To recap (620 targets): diggs - 130 wr2 (1st or 2nd round) - 110 kincaid - 110 Shakir - 80 Samuel - 55 (another 55 carries) Cook - 50 Knox - 40 Hollins - 30 everyone else - 15 Let’s say that Knox picks up 20 and the rest of the group picks up an additional 50. That is really aggressive. That still leaves 170 targets needed out of this class (and FA). They are in a bad spot. They need 2 that can play tomorrow.

It’s one of the “dirty little secrets.” Teams have as many, or as few, broker seats as they want. My guess on the Sabres “crackdown” is that they just CAN’T continue to have that many Leaf fans in the building. That last game was embarrassing. You live with 50/50 in those situations but that game was like 80/20 for the visitors. It was too much. This is a total guess but maybe 2k-5k broker seats in the new stadium. They’ll probably limit it to 20 or so partners so that they can control it.

Yeah, it was one of the first things that they showed us as we went through. The model that they have of the stadium was pretty awesome as well. It’s going to be really nice.

It was the first that I heard it also. It has the Kleinhans shape and “look” from the outside. I didn’t see as much of the Aud. They just mentioned it as we were going through. I forgot about the Rockpile influence as well. You see that in the entrances. It looks a lot like the Rockpile.

I think that there’s a chance that the Bills take a guy in that range. They don’t have the luxury of a 40% chance at WR. They don’t have the depth to take that chance. They MAYBE could have rolled the dice on that when Diggs was here. That would have been a bad strategy but possible. Now, they need 2 that they know can play.

There are other revenues that aren’t subject to revenue sharing. Advertising and sponsorships, for example aren’t shared. That’s why teams try to sell “soft” assets. As an example, if Highmark is going to pay the Bills $10m a year (or whatever) the Bills are going to try to allocate as much of that as possible to advertising. They don’t want them buying $10M worth of tickets. Basically NFL teams get a different percentage of money depending on what it is spent on. This is the biggest reason that the Bills needed a new stadium. Teams were outpacing them with local revenue (nonshared). That revenue DOES still drive the cap. So the cap will continue to rise. While the Bills will get their equal share of the national revenue, the gap, over time, will continue to widen if teams keep growing their local revenue. The NFL owners wanted a new stadium because they wanted the Bills contributing more shared revenue on the ticket front. The more that the Bills charge, the more they’re contributing to the shared revenue pool.

He’s my number 2. I really like all 3. I wouldn’t be shocked if Nabers or Odunze ended up as the best WR in the class. I’d be shocked if MHJ wasn’t really good. That’s why he’s my number 1. For me Harrison coming through Ohio State and having his dad in the HOF makes him the safest. I’m biased as an Ohio State fan but it also means I’ve seen a ton of him. He’s 1,200 yards and 8 plus TDs as a rookie.

I mean, not really. Most owners go that route with new stadiums. It isn’t a secret that the PSLs come off of the owner’s contribution to the stadium. It isn’t ideal but we knew a decade ago that this would eventually be the case. I equate the PSL to buying a car new. Once you drive it off the lot it’s value drops drastically. You then put 20,000 miles a year on the first 3 years and it just isn’t close to what you paid. After a handful more years, it’s basically worthless. That’s why you aren’t buying it as an investment. You’re buying it because you want to be in the stadium for all Bills games. I guess by that logic, it is another ticket fee. It’s like the initiation fee at a country club. You still have to pay your monthly dues, any assessments that come around and fees for different services. All that the initiation fee does is give you the right to pay those other fees. It looked awesome. They walk you through how it is built a certain way to redirect wind. They talk about how the appearance is inspired by Kleinhans and the Aud. I thought that was all pretty sweet. The attention to detail was so far beyond what we currently have. I guess that isn’t a surprise with a 52 year old stadium. It looks like it will be one of the nicer stadiums in the league.

I haven’t done all of the math yet but yeah. It’s not pretty

Yep, that’s the route that we are going to go when we eventually commit to something. The people buying those will be some of their broker partners. The Bills have had some broker partner relationships that date back to the Super Bowl years. They will have a certain amount of seats that those people will have access to. I’d venture to say that they are incentivized by discounting the PSL based on the number of seats that they buy. As an example, if they have someone that has 500 season tickets, they may only charge them for 400 PSLs. They may give them 10 years interest free or whatever. I don’t know exactly how they engage brokers but there is strategy to it in all cases. It’s tough in the NFL because you can’t discount tickets with revenue sharing. There’s no reason that you couldn’t make a deal on the PSLs though.