2003Contenders

I'll be honest -- after his rookie season (when he had Kyle Orton throwing him the ball), I thought we had something special. Then he battled nagging injuries the next couple of seasons, got traded to the Rams, received an inexplicably grandiose contract -- and (aside from a few shining moments with the Chiefs) has really been a disappointment ever since.

Dawkins, who went in the 2nd back in 2017, has been pretty good.

You make a good point about the depth of the existing roster and potentially wasting later round picks, which is why I do see the Bills packaging some of those picks to move up in the middle rounds (say, 2nd-4th) -- but I don't think they want to cede future 1st rounders or give away this year's 2nd to move up in the 1st -- unless the temptation to move up is too hard to pass.

While Beane and McD may have their sights on moving up in the draft, I don't think it would be for a CB. That position is pretty deep this year without a lot of separation. Honestly, there are potentially 6 guys that you could argue are worthy of going in the first round (Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Derek Stingley, Trent McDuffie, Andrew Booth Jr, Roger McCreary, Kaiir Elam). I highly doubt all 6 will be gone in the first 24 picks. I suppose if there is one guy that the Bills love and he starts to slide, I could see them trading up a few spots to get him -- but otherwise I doubt it. Beane knows what he is doing, unlike Whaley who traded away keys picks to move up for Watkins (when we had plenty of other holes to fill) in a WR-heavy draft. I just don't see Beane doing that for a CB.

It's funny because I thought Moss played well late into his rookie season -- and actually made an impact in the playoffs. When he got hurt, it seemed like the offense took a step back with Singletary (most obviously in the AFC Championship Game against KC). That is why expectations were modestly high on Moss headed into 2021. As it turns out, from day one (when Moss was a healthy scratch against Pittsburgh), he was a major disappointment. He does some things well -- especially blocking and catching the ball out of the backfield. However, breaking tackles and fighting for extra yards used to be his calling card (wanting defenders to "make a business decision" when tackling him). Too often in short yardage and redzone situations, he failed to get the yards needed. He seemed slow at times to read his blocks -- and sometimes outright missed open holes. He may not be any slower than Singletary -- but especially late in the season Devin seemed much more determined and decisive when making his cuts than Moss did. So in answer to your question, especially given that he is still playing on a 3rd round rookie contract, I have not completely given up on him. He and Devin combined should prove to be serviceable. However, with defenses totally dedicated to stopping Josh, you would think that Moss would be more productive when given the opportunity. Imagine what the offense could do with an elite "bell cow" RB legitimately taking some of the pressure off the passing game (and opening up play-action) -- and converting on those crucial 3rd and short situations to keep drives alive!

I remember back when Nix was hired, many pundits criticized the move -- citing an up-and-comer in the Pittsburgh pipeline named Doug Whaley as a more viable option. As fate would have it, Whaley wound up taking an assistant position as an understudy to Nix. Given Nix's age, it was pretty clear that Nix was a short-timer, and that Whaley's time serving under him would be an apprenticeship. Nix hired Doug Marrone not long before he left. Given that he knew he was heading out the door, I suspect that Whaley must have had some input on the hire -- just as I suspect that he must have had some say-so on the drafting of E.J. Manuel a couple of months later. Still, it is quite clear that Whaley and Doug Marrone did not get along. I still remember the meltdown that St. Doug had during training camp of 2014, when he had to be restrained from physically going after Whaley (and Russ Brandon). When Marrone left, the reports were that Whaley wanted Hue Jackson as the new head coach and was overruled by Brandon and the Pegulas to hire Rex. Obviously Jackson would have been a disaster of a hire (even worse than Rex) -- but if the Jackson hiring had occurred, it is likely that Schwartz would have stayed on as DC, so who knows? As a whole, Whaley's time here was a mixed bag. He did a decent enough job scouting and running the war room on draft day -- but failed to ever land us a genuine franchise QB. As a visionary roster/team builder he was lousy. As others said, he was OK making patch moves here and there -- but never had a long term plan and did not do a great job managing the cap. Whaley also never seemed comfortable talking to the press or representing the franchise. A larger than life personality like Rex, who craved media attention, helped shield Whaley during that time-frame. But when Rex was fired, Whaley wasn't even comfortable standing up in front of the media -- and hung his interim coach out to dry. He's been making media rounds lately and seems much more comfortable in these regards -- so maybe he has improved in terms of his communication and presentation skills. Still, I doubt that he will ever be the guy that is able to build a contender from the ground up. Having a polished, forward-thinker like Beane on hand now, we see just how much Whaley was lacking.

Is there evidence that the Bills ever offered him a contract? The article makes it sound like he had an offer from both the Steelers and Bills and was mulling over them. Maybe he had a standing offer from the Bills? The article also says that his agent was pushing the Steelers' offer, and it is highly unlikely that the agent had an epiphany from above. 🙂

Yes, and he also overlooks the number of jobs and boom to the local economy that will be created by the building of the new stadium. So the tax payer funds can rightfully be viewed as a genuine investment.

Very well laid out. I can't understand why any Bills fan would have an issue with the way that Beane handled the Bates situation. The bottom line is: do you like the 4 year $17 M contract? If not, then the Bills were not in a situation where they HAD to match it. So the argument that the team overpaid for him is ridiculous. If they felt that the contact that the Bears presented was more than the value they had placed on Bates, then the absolutely could (and should) have allowed him to walk. Actually, given that the Bills did choose to match the offer, tells us how highly they do think of Bates -- and given that they had the right of first refusal, never seriously placed them in jeopardy of being unable to match a fair offer. Also, we have not seen the year-by-year breakdown of the contract. We just know that it is $17 M over 4 years with $8.8 in the first two years guaranteed. That could mean a $8.8 M signing bonus in 2022, which for cap purposes can be spread out over 4 years -- or $2.2 M per year. If year one base salary is the vet minimum, the cap hit for 2022 would be less than $3M. I think we are assuming that the Bears probably front loaded the base salaries a bit more than that hoping the Bills would not be in the position to match, but we will have to see. In addition to the excellent points you made about the risks of applying the 2nd round tender, we also have to remember that, since the tender immediately hits the cap, the difference in the 2nd round tender and Right of First Refusal tender was north of $1M. As we saw with the activity in free agency and all of the additional moves to clear up space to sign Williams and others, every $ counts. Beane's approach served as a stalling tactic while they addressed other needs, cleared up cap space and effectively allowed the Bears to do their work for them. I am not saying that Beane is batting 1000 with his various moves as GM. I just fail to see why anyone has a beef with his handling here -- unless you don't like Bates and do not believe he was worth the contract. But that would be another issue entirely.

Agreed. Also, especially given all the QB moves that have been made around the league thus far, it is noteworthy that every move that the Dolphins have made has been to bolster the supporting cast around Tua. It appears that they want to give him every opportunity to succeed before deciding to move on at the QB position.

Another point about the Carolina -> Bills and now Bills -> Giants connection... recall that McD and other new members of the front office had some insight into the Panthers' draft board back in 2017. The Panthers were reportedly in on both Zay Jones and D. Dawkins, whom the Bills moved up ahead of them to acquire (both in the 2nd round). Wonder if Schoen and the Giants do something similar to the Bills in the draft.

When it comes to BPA, beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder. Also, the definition of "Best Player Available" really does not truly mean that literally -- but perhaps more along the lines of "Best Player Available at a position that it makes sense for the team to target". For example, the Bills would not be drafting a QB at #25 this year even if the best player on the board is, in fact, a QB. What BPA to me means is being flexible about the position rather than zeroing in on a specific position at the expense of quality. For example, the Bills could logically draft a CB, OL, WR, DL, TE, or RB there and rely on their scouts to direct them on which player is the best player and match for the team. A couple of things about Boogie and Epenesa... For one, both players are still very young and the verdict is still out a bit on both -- even on Epenesa, who needs to take a major step forward in this, his 3rd season. Second, heading into both of the last 2 drafts conventional wisdom was that both of those players were borderline 1st rounders, so taking both at the end of the 2nd round seemed like good "value" at the time.

Agree about McKissic -- I think much of that underneath volume will go to him. While McKenzie was fantastic in the Pats game, I just don't see him being a huge part of the passing game week in and week out. I think the relatively small size of the contract he signed with the Bills likely echoes that thought as well.

Some random thoughts when it comes to Beasley... 1. He was heavily utilized in the passing game. His 112 targets and 82 receptions were both top 30 in the league. The 82 receptions were actually 17th for all receivers ahead of such guys as D. Metcalf, C. Lamb, M. Williams and J. Chase. His conversion rate (targets leading to receptions) was 73% which is elite and (top 10). Beasley also saw a rich share of receptions in our offense -- second only to Diggs in receptions and targets. Replacing those targets -- and the confidence that a replacement receiver will make good on such a high percentage of those targets is not going to be easy. 2. As others have pointed out, while the volume is great -- the production was seriously lacking. Top 30 in targets and top 20 in receptions -- he was not even top 40 in yards. That little over 8 yards per reception average is (putting it kindly) not very good. And only 1 TD reception on the season? 3. Getting McK back is great -- but that just means that this is not ANOTHER hole to fill. E. Sanders is almost certainly gone, so that is one more hole to fill even if Beasley remains. McK is great in his gadget role -- but I am not at all confident that he will be able to step into a full time slot receiver role -- certainly not in the high capacity Beasley role. And we do not have anyone else on the team that I believe is a good fit in the slot. (Diggs can play anywhere -- but it would be a waste to limit him as a slot receiver). 4. In Josh Allen we have a rare QB that can get the ball to any spot on the field at any given time. As the season wore on, it became more and more evident that the short passing game was a point of emphasis. Perhaps the "other" McK signing indicates that much of this production will come out of the backfield. 5. You have to wonder how much of Beasley's off-field distractions last season (culminating in him having to miss playing time) may have grated on the coaches and team. 6. The fact that Beasley was granted permission to seek a trade likely clues us in to what the front office's thoughts are about his future in Buffalo. Maybe not necessarily that they are down on him -- but at his age, contract $ and the team's current cap situation -- they may feel like it is time to move on.

If nothing else, he was a very disciplined DE who set the edge well -- and could be a nice mentor in those regards to our young DEs who struggled in that capacity last year. Would still like to acquire a genuine pass rusher though.

That was back in 2001, when Brady took over for an injured Bledsoe. IIRC, both games went down to the wire with one of them decided in overtime. A Patriot receiver (David Patton, I believe) was blown up in overtime and fumbled the ball. The Bills recovered and were poised to get the win, but the officials ruled that a literally unconscious Patton's leg was barely touching the sideline, and since the fumbled ball touched him for a split second, the ball itself was out of bounds. On the very next play former Bill Antowain Smith took it to the house for a Pats win.

While it may be true that the #1 ranking during the regular season may have been misleading, the truth of the matter is that on a week in-week-out basis, the defense was up to the task. I think it would be foolish to overreact to a couple of let-downs by the defense, the biggest of which (of course) was the Divisional playoff game against the Chiefs. The defense was predicated on the bend-but-don't-break concept -- creating a scheme that minimized big play opportunities and forced opposing offenses to chain together a long sequence of plays to score. As such, the defense was heavily reliant on turnovers and negative plays, since the greater number of plays for opposing offenses also meant a greater likelihood for mistakes. The biggest pitfall to this type of defense is that when the opposing offense avoids the big mistakes, they are able to effectively move the ball AND keep our defense on the field. That is what happened against the Titans, Colts and Chiefs. It would be interesting to go back through and see what the team's record has been under McD when the defense does NOT force a turnover. My guess is that it isn't very good. By the end of the playoff game against the Chiefs the defense was completely gassed. The offense (rather, the play calling on offense) also deserves some blame, as they went into hibernation through much of the 2nd and 3rd quarters of that game, which put the defense out on the field even more. Rather than pointing the finger at the defense, I am also inclined to give Mahomes and the Chiefs offense their due. Mahomes managed to avoid a great deal of pressure and made some clutch plays in that game. And, despite his effective play, Mahomes and the Chiefs only put 14 points on the board in the first half, so the defense was effectively working as designed (up to that point). All of which isn't to say that the defense could not use some upgrades here and there: -- A true impact player at MLB. I am not an Edmunds-hater, but it is hard to argue that he is a true difference maker. -- Depth in the secondary. Missing T. White against the Chiefs really hurt -- and we enter the off-season with key contributors (like Levi) at CB. -- A force at the Edge. While the rotation along the DL can be effective, we are missing a guy that opposing offenses must account for on every play. We have some youth here, so maybe one or more of these guys will pan out -- but I would love to see a legitimate 10+ sack rusher come in via free agency. Easier said that done, I know.

Actually, that combine clip confirms what we have seen when he runs in the NFL. His mechanics look all wrong and it really does not seem like he is running fast at all -- but thanks to his long stride, etc. he covers a lot of ground in a short amount of time. LOL

Honestly, over the last few weeks I have managed to come to grips with how things went down. It was pretty clear to anyone watching that both QBs were in the zone that game. The proverbial, "the team touching the ball last is going to win", was exactly what happened. Yes, the miscommunication on the kickoff was bad. Yes, the design (or lack thereof) of the defense on those final two plays was a mess. But, the way Mahomes was playing that day, I am not sure that anything would have mattered. If the Chiefs needed a TD there in those final 13 seconds instead of a FG -- they probably find a way to get it done. The same was true of Josh. For example, on the series immediately after Hill scored the go-ahead TD with only about a minute to go, on the first play from scrimmage, Josh fired a 28-yard completion to Davis down the middle of the field. Earlier he hit Davis on a 75-yard TD on the first play of that series too. When this game is safely in the distant past, as much as it hurts, I think we will be able to look back on it with some degree of reverence. Instead of blaming the coaches, kicker, defense, etc. we will be able to credit some of the superlative playing we witnessed and say that this was one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history.

I have to wonder if there was a conditional strategy that McD presented. That is, if Hill was back there as a kick returner, then boom it through the endzone. Otherwise, pooch or squib kick it. That may explain (but not excuse) why there may have been some confusion regarding the game plan on the kickoff.

I keep hearing that McDaniel wants to retain the current DC in Miami.

Schwartz certainly did a fine job when he was the Bills' DC in Marrone's 2nd (and final) season. However, let's not forget that he had a fantastic front 4 to work with, including a still dominant Mario Williams, a young/rejuvenated Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams in his prime, and Marcel D. before he signed his big contract and stopped caring. Each of those guys had close to double-digit sacks that year. If we had that front 4 this past season, there is no doubt in my mind that we would be playing this Sunday -- with Frazier as DC.

Does anyone know anything about Flores' legal team? The fact that they are letting him speak while a lawsuit is going on and the fact that the lawsuit itself is all over the map -- alleging a variety of things against multiple teams that have nothing to do with racism -- makes me wonder if this whole thing is more about forwarding a political agenda rather than truly trying to win a lawsuit.

There is a part of me that likes the notion of bringing in an up-and-comer like Martin. However, with defensive-minded MCD at HC would prefer someone a bit more experienced. Good news is that with Josh, the OC position in Buffalo should be viewed favorably, so we should see a quality pool of candidates.

Prayers for you and your family. RIP, Coach Williams.