2003Contenders

Did TD acquire him because he has experience playing most positions along the line -- or did McNally see something that makes him think he can plug him in as a quality starter at LT?

To be honest, it is VERY difficult for me to gauge exactly how good this team will be this year. After all, last year we were 9-7, but we were in EVERY game, except for the Sunday night New Englad debacle. From that standpoint, we were certainly not as bad as the 0-4 start. On the flip side of the coin, our easy schedule down the stretch also probably inflates our late-season record. Meanwhile, the Week 17 home loss at the hands of Pittsburgh's scrubs made it abundantly clear that we were not in the same class as the elite teams in the conference. Pity for us that the NFC sucked last year, while the AFC was loaded with many good teams, of which we just happened to be one of them. Here are the questions that I think need to be answered... 1. Losman is off to a good start -- but what happens when he faces real defenders in a game situation? And just how durable is he? We saw him withstand a beating at Tulane -- but we also saw him break his leg on the slightest of contact last year. 2. Clearly the offense was our weak link last season. What wrinkles will Mularkey thrown in this year that we didn't see with the Bledsoe-scaled down playbook? What will the depth chart at WR look like? Will we have a healthy TE by training camp? 3. How will the LT position pan out? Is TD's lack of attention here because he trusts that McNally can work miracles? Has McNally sold him on a player currently on the team at the positon (Gandy, Peters)? Or, is it strictly a business decision on TD's part? 4. The real turning point last year was when Henry was benched in favor of Willis. With Willis the uncontested starter, can he ignite that spark from day one? Also, despite Willis' strong production, he still only managed 4.0 yards per carry, which is barely average by league standards. Will he be even better now with two full years removed from knee surgery? Can the OL open better holes for him? Is Mike Williams ready to become the elite RT he's being paid to be? 5. Can Lindell consitently make good on 40+ yard field goals? 6. Aside from Lindell, the Special Teams were a real strength last year. What impact will Roscoe Parrish have as the potentially new Punt Returner? And will the coverage unit continue to excel? 7. Last year the already top-ranked defense became more opportunistic in terms of turnovers -- and placed our odious offense in a position to succeed. Was the amazing turnaround from 2003 to 2004 (in turnovers) a by-product of Jerry Gray's more aggressive style of play? Or did the ball simply bounce our way more often? 8. What impact will losing Big Pat have? Will Anderson/Edwards be up to the challenge? 9. With a relatively (on paper at least) easy opening schedule, can we win some of those games that we are supposed to win to build momentum and gear up for the rougher portions of the schedule? After all, the Week 1 loss to Jacksonville (oneof those games we were "supposed to win") last season is what truly sealed our fate. 10. How much will the coaching staff improve? MM now has a year under his belt and will need to show that he can go head-to-head with the Belichicks and Cowhers of the league.

In a funny way, this whole ordeal should have taught Henry a lesson too about his own value. Namely, no team was willing to offer up more than a disgruntled backup offensive lineman or a second-day draft pick for him. He holds no cards in this situation. None. If he holds out, then he is one more year removed from having had a successful season and the market will be even LESS for him in 2006 than it was this year. Meanwhile, his modest cap hit means that the Bills can afford to hang onto him for now -- and for the course of the 2005 season if they have to. I think that's what TD is banking on. Either, some other team is slapped with a serious injury at the RB position -- and come knocking on the Bills' door -- at which point, the 2006 second round draft pick asking price does not sound so crazy. Or, Henry realizes that it is in his best interest to show up, put on the good game face, provide 3rd down and backup support for a RB with an injury history, and drive up his own stock when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2006.

Personally, I don't see a problem with what Rodgers said... and I'm sure Favre wouldn't either. The point is that Rodgers knows that the LAST thing anyone could ever say about Favre is that he is lazy. It would be like calling Cal Ripkin lazy. His attempt at humor was probably his way of dealing with a rather stupid question from a reporter.

Following up with KOKBills valid points... having 3 or more quality receivers also allows MM to move the guys around. Maybe RP isn't big enough to get off the jam, when playing outside -- but that doesn't mean that teams can't account for him. And what happens when we move him outside on specific plays -- and Moulds moves inside and matches up against a team's #3 CB? I also expect the 2005 Bills to set the record for the number of reverses, double reverses, and fake reverses...

Considering that this is a contract year for Reed -- and he will have that much more extra incentive -- I think the Bills will give him every opportunity to win a spot. I see him as the #3 to start the season, and if he struggles, giving way to Roscoe.

Also, the Titans drafted a RB in the 2nd round...

Well, it's TD's style to low-ball, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what he's tried to do here. Of course, on occasion (as he did last year with Aaron Schobel) he's been willing to cough up the dough. You are right that I don't know that TD hasn't at least tried to present a fair offer to Nate and his agent. But I think if TD had really presented an equitable offer and Nate and his agent were being greedy, then we would have heard about it by now. After all, making the players sound like greedy jerks in negotiations is another TD tactic. Not diss'ing TD, just saying that I hope we don't make the mistake of letting NC walk because we never presented a fair offer. If he moves on because TD isn't willing to overpay, then so be it.

He fits the profile of the kind of free agent-to-be that we should make a push to sign. He's coming off his first Pro Bowl and entering the prime of his career. His current cap number is in the $3.5 M range. It's not as if the price for him is going to go down, especially in light of the Surtain deal. If we were to sign him to, say, a 6 year $49 M deal with a $15 M signing bonus (which is probably in the range of what he would command -- if not more -- on the open market) and heavily back-loaded the contract, then we would actually SAVE cap space this year.

Well, that was up until the Super Bowl, when the Redskins beat poor Jim to a pulp. There is still that classic clip we always see of a couple of players propping an unconscious Jimbo up on the sidelines during that game. They usually show this clip when they start talking about concussions.

Last year when the deal was made, both Salisbury and Jaws applauded it. They both liked JP better than Phil Rivers.

Let's look more closely at Reed's career up until now: 1. Promising rookie season. 2. Lousy season in the ill-fitted Peerless Price role. 3. Injury shortened season I personally have not seen enough to fairly analyze Reed. Although I had high hopes for him after his rookie season, I agree that he was a bust in year 2. Clearly he was not ready to assume the starting job and was a poor fit for that particlular offense... an offense that struggled almost top-to-bottom with Moulds missing a number of starts or having to play injured. Again, he did not have many opportunities last year with the emergence of Evans, a shift toward emphasizing the running game, and his own injury situation. In year two of Mularkey trying to get him to play the old Hines Ward role, I am willing to give Josh one last look before waving adios.

He's just whing because the Bills have to wait so long to pick. Of course, who's to say that they don't trade up...

Also, I believe that the noted slip-ups that Henry had in the early part of last season can be attributed to his pressing, knowing that Willis was ready to take his job at any time. I also think that Travis is a good locker room guy. He mostly kept his unhappiness to himself during the regular season. His recent comments are more e product of the fact that he sees himself playing elsewhere next year.

I apologize if this has been posted before, but I saw him on there last night talking about a Cubs/Pirates baseball match-up. In a way, this hit me hard, as I am still in denial about the dissolution of Empire Sports!

It looks like they've updated the numbers...

Smoke or no smoke, it is highly unlikely that Smith would be there at #5. More importantly, Ronnie Brown, the RB that the Dolphins really seem to covet, will also likely be gone. Thus, the trade may help the fish acquire an additional pick, but it is also likely to cost them a shot at Brown. This also explains why Gruden would be interested in trading a player for Travis. He will have at least one fewer (presumably 2nd or 3rd rounder) draft pick this year -- and will have drafted a position OTHER than RB with his first pick.

Supposedly Krumrie really likes him (He did have a rasslin' match with him!). Personally I don't think that the mj rap will hurt his stock THAT much. I'd be surprised if he fell beyond the end of the 2nd round, considering that some had him projected as a late 1st rounder.

Well, Brown will almost certainly be gone before the Bucs pick at #5 anyway.

And you don't believe that JP is the answer because....? Personally, I don't know if he is or isn't the answer. And I don't think anyone does, even the coaches. Sam Wyche appears to be his biggest supporter -- but he's well aware of the uncertainties associated with young QBs. We've yet to see Losman start an NFL game, and what we have seen has been in "controlled" situations when a game was already out of hand. I'm not too worried about his dreadful performance against the Pats, just as I'm not overly excited about his quality performance against the Browns. I know the Bills' evaluation on him last year was that he had a better arm than any of the top 3 QBs (Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers) coming out, other than Big Ben -- and that he was by far the most mobile of the 3. His perceived cocky attitude is the biggest reason that he was slotted by most as the 4th in this list. That could be a GOOD thing if he is cocky like Jim Kelly was... Or it could be a bad thing if he is cocky like Ryan Leaf was. What this tells me is that he has the physical tools to succeed. But does he have the brains, physical toughness, mental toughness, and intangibles? Again, we just don't know. You could argue that his fluke leg injury last year could reveal a durability problem. Or... you could point out that he took a beating in college -- and kept on ticking. Last year, JP was viewed as part of the top 4 QB mix by some teams, while others clearly had him in the second tier after the top 3 QBs. Some teams, like the Bills, Packers, and Rams viewed him as right there or better than the other 3. I know for a fact that the Packers had him ranked higher than Rivers, who went #4 overall last year. This year, I think he'd be ranked right there with Smith and Rodgers. Considering that neither Smith or Rodgers are apparantly as highly regarded as Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger, I think you can make the case that JP would be the top rated QB this year. Again, it depends on which team is picking though... Remember when we drafted Moulds back in 1996, some teams felt that the Bills got a late first round steal, while a GM for one team said he wouldn't have taken him in the 7th round. It's all about perception.

I've heard rumors recently that Gruden really wants Alex Smith. If he's there at #5 and the Bucs take him, he could be inclined to trade a pick for Henry. Meanwhile, we know that Dennis Green feels that he must come away from this draft with a playmaker at CB. It all tells me that as various scenarios play themselves out in the draft, Henry's future will become more pronounced. We should have some indication early based on what TB does with the #5 pick and what Arizona does with the #8 pick. If they both take a RB, as many mock drafts have suggested, then Henry's stock declines in a major way. If one team or the other passes on a RB, it could mean that a deal is already in the works. If NEITHER takes a RB, then we may even have a bidding war on our hands. I doubt that we could manage the Cards' or Bucs' high second rounder, but maybe their high 3rd rounder? And maybe the Eagles get in on the bid with their late 2nd rounder?

Actually, since neither teams boasts a mighty offense, I would expect to see a heavy dose of Willis in those games, especially this early in the season. In fact, the game plan should be for J.P. to throw the ball just often enough to keep the defense honest.

I like that the schedule APPEARS to be easier early on. It gives JP the chance to get his feet wet and build his confidence up BEFORE the tougher games kick in. It also means that the coaching staff can afford to take his progression slowly, as we focus more on the running attack. Of course, we are basing our assessment of the strength or ease of the schedule on last year's record, rather than what we expect to see this year.

One thing to remember about Woodson's contract is that it was inflated in 2005 for two reasons... 1. Last year when the Raiders tagged him, they did so as an Exclusive Rights Frnachise Player, which somes with a larger price tag than the Non-exclsuive Rights tender. 2. This year, when they opted to tag him again, they had to pay him 120% over last year's salary, which is how he wound up with the $10 M number this year. Although Woodson's own number will play a role in inflating the franchise tag number next year --as it will undoubtedly be the top salary amongst the top 5 to be averaged -- the franchise number figures to be significantly less.

It's funny you bring this up, because I went on one of these time share tours when I was down there in Orlando a few weeks ago. I just did it for the free Disney tickets. 1. The price for a 1 bedroom (for just one week out of the year) was about $20 K. If you break that down (considering 1/52 of the total cost), that makes it over $1 Million for a one bedroom condo! 2. They try to break it down for you to pay for it on a monthly basis over five years. The interest rate is crazy (like 17%) -- and it winds up costing several hundred dollars per month. They will argue that you spend the money for just 5 years and it is yours for life. The reality is that what you pay per month for this thing is probably more than your lodging would cost for a week of vacation anyway. So, if you consider 60 months worth of payments, you realize quickly that you are spending as much or more than you would be spending for vacation lodging for the next 60 years! They will also make you believe that this is a real estate investment -- and that you will make a great deal of money when you sell it. However, you have to go through them to sell it, and it's not as easy as they make it sound. And with that crazy interest rate you paid at the time of buying it, you aren't likely to make as much as you'd think upon re-selling it. 3. The maintenance fees are ridiculous. It's like $500 per year... Make that $500 for your one week per year! 4. They will sell you on being able to trade your week for another week or another location. (Big deal!) They will also tell you that you are eligible for discounted cruises. Hmmmm. I see these discounted cruises available to the public all the time! 5. Don't get me wrong. The resort(s) are very nice. In fact, they sell themselves when you see them. It's just not worth the money, even if you like the concept of buying a condo for just one week out of the year. With real estate being so cheap (comparatively speaking, of course) down in Orlando, if you really want a vacation home down there, you are better served buying one outright. That's just my two cents worth...