2003Contenders

It came from Norv Turner, when MM challenged him for running up the score against us in Oakland a few weeks back. Recall that with just seconds left to go, the Raiders pounded it in for another TD, rather than just taking the knee. MM didn't get it then, and he clearly didn't get it yesterday that no lead is safe in the NFL, and it is NEVER a crime to run up the score. I wonder if he understands now.

In terms of the timing, I wonder if it has to do with MM's formal announcement that he's sticking with JP for the remainder of the year? We all know that Moulds was one of the driving forces behind JP's benching. Note also that, as ch19079 pointed out, Moulds is our leader on offense. However, the leader SHOULD be our QB. And maybe the thought is to place JP in a sitaution where he is the unquestioned starter and leader of the offense next season. Obviously JP needs to do what he can over the next several weeks to command the leadership role with his on-field play. This past week he looked Moulds' way more than he has any game in the past. So maybe the two of them will form a connection that will prevent Moulds from becomming a distraction again -- and place Moulds in the situation where he wants to stay put and is willing to take a pay cut to do so.

The notion that Jammer "fell" was because everyone was sure that the Lions would take him at #3. He filled a huge need for them, and the Lions didn't seem to be in the market for a QB, as they still wanted to see what Mike McMahon had to offer. That didn't necessarily mean that Jammer carried with him a rating of a player worthy of going #3 overall. Indeed, even at the time of the draft, most pundits agreed that this class looked weak. Peppers was the only genuine blue chip prospect, and he went #2 because the expansion Texans wanted to draft their franchise QB right off the bat. It is also a myth that teams were interested in trading up for Harrington. His stock had risen rather quickly and late in the game, but at the end of the college season he was viewed as a late first rounder. The Bills were one team that was NOT interseted in him, as they had concerns about his arm strength in adverse weather conditions. Matt Millen REALLY tried to pimp that #3 pick even moreso that TD did, and he also had trouble finding a suitor. There was no consensus selection when we picked #4. I even recall Chris Berman being at a loss for who the team was going to take -- and he essentially made a guess that it would be an OT, but didn't say which one. We all know that the team has for years told him ahead of time who they were going to take in return for a promise that he'd keep it close to the vest until the final moment. That tells me that TD was not sure who he was taking with that pick either. In fact, he was hoping that a deal would be made to move down. A similar thing happened the following year, when it was actually Mort who reported the possibility of our drafting Willis. That was clearly news to Berman at the time. Recall also that MW wasn't even the consensus pick at the time within the organization. There were reports that Gregg REALLY wanted Roy Williams to the point where he was affectionately referring to him as his son, since they shared the same surname. (Does anyone ever remember the same references to Big Mike?) As I've said before, there is enough stuff for which to blame TD, where I wouldn't necessarily point the finger at him for the Mike Williams bust. I find it funny that many of the same people that want to villify TD for not paying enough attention to our OL, are the same ones that are so upset about the MW pick. Imagine how much better off our OL would be now if MW had turned out to be the perrenial All Pro RT that he was projected to be! We were picking in a bad spot, where there wasn't much in the way of value. Hind-sight is always 20-20, but we would have been much better off with John Henderson, Roy Williams, or Dwight Freeney. Henderson came with injury concerns -- and the other guys would have been considered reaches. The Colts were mocked for taking Freeney about 7-10 spots too soon. And the Cowboys actually traded down a couple spots to get RW. Maybe the lesson to be learned here is screw "draft value". Identify the guys you want at a specific position that you think will best fit your team and take them before you think someone else will. That's what Dungy did with Freeney -- and it's what the Pats have been doing for years.

Actually that may not be such a bad thing this week, as I fully expect Miami to try to run the ball down our throat -- something they didn't do enough of (fortunately) when we played them last time. As awful as Wire is in pass coverage, he's pretty good in run support.

Granted the MW selection has turned out to be a bust of huge proportions. But blaming TD for this particular pick is pure revisionism. Think back... 1. That was an especially weak draft with no consensus #4 pick. It was our bad luck to have finished as lousy as 3-13 the previous year, and pick as late as #4. The Chargers, for example, had the luxury of picking #1 overall and getting Eli Manning in 2004 after coming off a 4-12 campaign. Peppers was the hands down top-rated player, but he went #2 because the Texans wanted to draft their franchise QB right away -- and that's what they did with David Carr. The Lions bungled even worse than we did by taking Joey Harrington one pick before us. The word was that Marty Morningweg wanted to take Quentin Jammer, but Millen insisted on Harrington. Millen's decision first cost Marty M his job -- and now the Mooch as well. There were rumblings that we were interested in taking Harrington if he got past the Lions, but I'm not so sure. Our scouts were supposedly concerned that Harrington didn't have the arm strength to throw the ball in the messier conditions in Orchard Park. At the very least we know that TD tried in vain to trade down -- but found no interested trading partners. 2. Freeney was considered a big reach when the Colts took him. In fact, Dungy and Polian were roundly curiticized fro taking him so early at the time, as most pundits had him going in the middle or late part of the first round. 3. Recall that Bryant McKinney had dominated Freeney in a college game earlier that year, which placed a bit of a damper on Freeney, as many experts thought that this represented a good example of how he would do against quality NFL-caliber OL. 4. I think from the outset, we were interested in McKinney. However, he did not impress the coaches and front office with his attitude, when he came in for a visit. Big Mike seemed to have the better "character" and was deemed much more mature. Recall that McKinney was, in fact, a holdout for the Vikings -- and signed just in time (prior to Week 10) to avoid going back into the next year's draft. Meanwhile, Big Mike played for us as a rookie, and was an integral part of an offense that wasn't the reason for our not making it to the playoffs that year. Of course, things have dramatically changed since then with McKinney being described as the best young OT in the game -- and Big Mike labeled a bust and losing his job to an undrafted free agent. 5. Considering the need for OL help, especially with the pending Bledose trade in the works, TD and staff elected to go the OL route, rather than get first dibs at the top DT in the class. After all, there was no consensus there either. Henderson was the top rated, but he had experienced severe back problems that alarmed scouts. Sims and Haynesworth were rated neck and neck as well. Shaun Rogers fell all the way to the end of the 2nd round because of concerns about his ability to walk -- let alone anchor a defensive line. Then there was Rien Long, who had been the top pass-rushing DT in college and was judged by many as a high 1st rounder. Somehow he lasted until day 2. There is ample enough criticism for TD and that draft that I can't see beating him up too bad for the MW miscalculation. Personally, I am more annoyed with the moving up to get Denney (really just to spite the Steelers), when Rogers and Long were still on the board. Oh, well...

I am tired of hearing about how the Panthers are going to thrash us because they will be highly motivated coming off their loss to the Bears... We should be even MORE motivated after being embarrassed in San Diego last week! This is OUR house -- not theirs. And it is high time that the team hears the rally call and comes ready to play. I just have a feeling that this is the week that the offense finally comes together. JP will be in the friendly confines of the Ralph, and I see Roscoe being heavily used in the gameplan. A couple quick hits to him should open things up down the field for Evans and Moulds, which should in turn open things up for the running game. Defensively, I am not too worried about the running game. And I look for Nate to shake off last week's slump (which was really team-wide) and rise to the occasion against the league's top WR in Steve Smith. I'm also tired of hearing about how the season is over. We have 3 more games at home. They are all tough, but we are 4-1 there this year. If we win those games that puts us at 7-9. Of the remaining road games, we get a crack at Miami and the Jets. Yes, I know it is always hard beating division opponents on the road, but we are better that either the Jets or Phins -- and should beat them. That puts us at 9-7, and anything can happen from there. I know I am getting ahead of myself... but it all starts tomorrow -- and we need to start seeing the kind of intensity we saw out of this team in the final weeks last year.

Maybe they use him the way the Steelers used to use Kordell in certain plays, when O'Donnell was still there.

I didn't notice any penalties or plays in which he was obviously beaten. Did anyone watch closely to see how well he performed? I will have to say that up until the very end, KH had decent protection and Willis was able to get his. Could this be a permanent home for Peters with Williams moved over to the left side (I'm actually thinking LG, as Anderson has actually been more odious than Gandy).

Considering the earlier QB sneak, a play action pass would likely have got us an easy 6 in that situation.

According to the Mooch, he wanted to see what Garcia looked like with the first team offense. It was not meant to spark any kind of controversy (which is moot now anyway). It was just that he wanted to give Garcia some snaps with the first team offense in a game-like situation -- just in case he had to be rushed into action during the regular season. Joey had a mild injury but would have played in a regular season game.

Anxiously awaiting the real season next weekend, I decided to take the time today to analyze each play that Losman dropped back to pass... First Drive 1. PI on Detroit. Nice pass by JP, as he hit Moulds in the chest, as he was being mauled by a defender. 2. Low shoestring catch by Moulds, but the ball was thrown in the only place where it wouldn't get picked off. 3. CLEARLY the Lions were off-sides. JP threw to Lee Evans into coverage; it is is probably a ball he doesn't throw if he doesn't believe he has a free play. Even so, in the future he should make sure a flag is thrown and not assume a penalty. Second Drive 1. JP is sacked as Mike Williams is badly beaten. The sack came from the blindside, and hardly anything you can blame on the QB, as it wasn't as if he held onto the ball forever. 2. We've all heard about the first INT by now, so no sense in my rehashing. Clearly a poorly thrown ball. JP later said that he threw it into the wind without giving t enough mustard and it sailed on him. Third Drive 1. Nicely thrown ball by JP that Evans dropped. The Bills were lucky that it wasn't called a fumble. 2. Nice screen pass to Williams 3. Beautiful bomb to Moulds would have been an easy 6 if not for PI. 4. After the non-TD because of a holding penalty, JP actually throws his worst ball of the night... at least it was his worst decision of the night, as he should have been picked off by Earl Holmes, trying to force the ball to Campbell. Replays show that Shelton was open for an easy 6. As it was, the team was lucky that it didn't go for 6 the other way. 5. Well thrown ball to Moulds, who is unable to shake the LB to get to the endzone. Fourth Drive 1. In the shadows of the endzone, JP wisely throws the ball away. He had pretty good protection, but there was no one open. 2. Great pass by JP to Aiken on the skinny post! Not only was it pretty but gutsy coming from the endzone. 3. Nice, quick timing pass to Fast Freddy. 4. Sack... This one is on JP, as he held onto the ball too long a la Drew. Fifth Drive 1. JP, surrounded by mostly backups, including entire OL, gets a bad snap from Espositio (no longer with the team), and takes the sack. 2. Another great post pattern to Aiken for 20 yards. That seems to be JP's favorite pattern. 3. On play action, JP completes a nice screen pass to Goldsbury. JP made it look so simple. A pity that Drew aways made that play look so difficult. 4. Second INT, clearly not JP's fault, as he hit Aiken in the hands. Sixth Drive 1. Nice, easy pass to Reed. 2. Nice out to Reed for a 1st down. 3. Very nice completion to Haddad as JP was under pressure. 4. JP avoids pressure, gets the ball out to Fast Freddy who then dropped what seemed to be a difficult but catchable pass. No matter... Holding on the OL. 5. Underneath pass to Aiken. 6. Dropped pass by Reed hat hit him right in the chest. 7. Another great throw on the post, but this time Haddad can't hold on. It was well defended. 8. Nice scramble by JP that comes up just short. In summary, JP was by no means perfect -- but he was not nearly as awful as I had heard by those who claimed to have actually watched the game on Friday night. I also liked how he bounced back after each INT. The first time, taking them all the way to ... well, we can't fault him for the negated TD or missed chip-shot FG. The second time, doing a nice job in the 2:00 drill. Personally, I am more worried about stupid penalties, the defense showing up, and the line opening up holes for the running game than I am about JP. In fact, if these other factors take care of themselves, then I think our offense will be fine with JP.

I agree with you, Mark VI. I expect that we will see many 4 and even 5 WR sets this year. It should serve to spread out the offense and take the pressure off the OL to protect against the blitz. Like him or not, one thing that Losman has shown is the ability to get rid of the ball quickly. All he needs to do is hit on a few quick slants, and defenders will have to back off. That should open things up for the running game too. Now, the question is: can Losman make the right reads and make the quickly? And can the WRs catch the ball? I think 4 quarters of Moulds and Evans may make a difference, know what I mean?

The way I read it was that MM was going to leave them in there "as long as it takes." To me that means that if Losman and crew march down the field on the opening drive, look sharp and come away with a TD, then their night may be over. If they struggle, they'll stay in there until they do score.

Peters could very well be a perfect example of how over-scouting sometimes gets in the way of teams making sound decisions in the draft. Remember that the draft is all about perceived value: not just the grade that the team has placed on a particular player. For example, the Bills may have had Peters ranked ahead of some of the players that they wound up drafting in the late rounds -- but because they knew that those other players stood a good chance of being drafted elsewhere, they were inclined to invest a draft pick on such a player -- and wait until after the draft to take a stab at Peters. The question remains, though: Why did Peters go undrafted? I think it was a combination of all of the following factors: 1. NFL teams were not sure what to do with him. He seemed too big (read slow) to play TE. And, while he was projected by many to play LT in the NFL, he had little or nor experience playing the position in school. Thus, he entered the league as a man without a position. Recall that the Bills didn't even know what to do with him -- and still haven't set on a specific role for him. Matt Jones looked to suffer that same fate -- until his eye popping combine workouts served to elevate his stock literally overnight. 2. Coming out of school, Peters was said to be quite raw. If you recall, last season when he was initially relegated to the practice squad, the word out of OBD was that he had plenty of potential, but was a long-term project. To a certain extent, the front office appears to still believe that, but his freakish abilities are so mouth-watering, that they had to find a way to make some use of them, even if just on Special Teams. This guy could turn into a 3-way player: special teams, spot duty at DE, and LT reserve. 3. We've made fun of the poor guy, even challenging his intellect because of his low test score. While it probably didn't play the deciding factor in his going undrafted -- SF's Julian Peterson scored even lower and he went in the 1st round -- it still likely played a role nonetheless. When taken together with the other factors -- it may have cemented his immediate fate. If teams felt that he was raw coming out of school -- and observed his low test score, they may have come to the conclusion that this guy, who would require A LOT of coaching, may not be the most coachable player in the world. Fortunately, our coaching staff felt secure enough to roll the dice -- and considering that he was an undrafted free agent, the risk was minimal. Aside from Peters, let's not forget that both Jabri Greer and R Baker were both walk-ons as well. Greer, in particular, was thought by many to be a Day 1 draft pick.

Interesting... And that only takes into account his passing stats -- not what he's been able to do with his legs.

Another factor regarding running to the left is that is also the direction that the opponent's best pass rusher is coming from. It's not hard to imagine an occasional big run coming at the expense of an over-pursuing DE/OLB.

Great recap there, Bart at ND! The "Just Give it to them" stemmed from that bogus "catch" made by Patten. The refs were in disagreement about whether or not it had been a true catch -- and, if so, whether Patten had crossed the first down marker. When the refs couldn't decide, one of them told the other, "Just give it to them!" The non-reception took place on the Bills' sideline, and several Bills players overheard the converstaion between the refs. Ralph was later fined by the league for citing the exchange. (It is still a mystery as to whether or not he ever paid the fine.) Also, this game (along with the infamous Jets/Seattle one) were the harbingers for the return of instant replay.

I'd rather have Losman with a season of preparation and a full off-season of knowing that he will be THE man under his belt -- than a less talented Rodgers, who will be a true rookie heading into this season. To me, giving up a 2nd rounder last year to make that happen this year was a small price to pay. Note also, that if we hadn't taken JP last year, then we'd still have Bledsoe THIS year.

There were three reasons why Smith was drafted so high (and why he proved to be a bust)... 1. Much like Erik Flowers, Akili Smith was a "fast riser". Heading into the 1998 season, Smith was projected to go undrafted -- or as a late round QB at best. Then he turned some heads in that last season, and became one of the fastest rising NFL prospects in history. 2. The Browns were never seriously interested in Smith -- but had talks with him leading up to the draft to add more leverage to their sincere talks with Tim Couch. Smith himself even realized this -- and made references to having felt "used" at the time. That helped to inflate his value in what was considered a QB-rich draft at the time. 3. From a pure, physical standpoint, Smith may have had the strongest arm of any QB in the draft. He looked awesome in a workout in shorts... Of course, the strongest arm in the world doesn't help you if you can't read a defense. Just think of Jim Drunkenmiller, who may have had the strongest arm of any QB ever drafted... but lacked the grey matter to get the job done.

Personally, I think it is a very GOOD idea for management to get JP accustomed to dealing with the press. A few weeks ago, Sam Wyche said as much. Even if he is everything we hope he turns out to be, there is little doubt that JP will run into his share of problems in his first season as a starter. When young QBs run into these kinds of problems, it is often their inability to withstand the never-ending questions from the media that leads to their demise. Ryan Leaf is the perfect example. In contrast, think back to how Peyton Manning handled himself in the midst of his trying rookie season. Not only is JP getting valuable experience dealing with the media and fans in what is now a friendly atmosphere, but by making himself so available to the press, he is also building an enormous amount of good will. That should at least buy him a few extra games if/when he struggles and the Jerry Sullivans of the world are tempted to start calling for his head.

But what happens if Roscoe winds up up with, say, number 82?

I'd also say Miami. Their high-profile, rebuilt DL is fool's gold. Otherwise, I don't see much improvement from them. Also, take a close look at their schedule, especially their home games. They could finish with a WORSE record than they did in 2004.

I wouldn't read too much into the 3-year deal, since salaries are not guranteed in the NFL. It just allows the team to only have to account for 1/3 of his signing bonus against the cap this year. With that said, if Gates performs well in camp and contributes to Special Teams, he has a very good chance of making the team. We know how TD covets his draft picks.

I was watching a Dodgers baseball game the other night, and the game was played in LA. The Dodgers have a wall with imprints of some of the franchise's most historic individuals, honoring them much in the same way that the Bills honor key figures with the Ring of Honor. One interesting inclusion on that wall in LA is none other than Kirk Gibson. Gibson spent the vast majority of his career with the Tigers -- and only played a couple of mostly injury-riddled seasons for the Dodgers. So how is he deserving of such an honor for such a historic franchise? Well, everyone remembers that game winning homerun that Gibson hit off Eckersely with two outs in the 9th inning in the World Series, as he hobbled to the plate. That incident was one of the most memorable in Dodgers (and all of baseball) history. I think we can view Reich in the same light. Even if you discount everything else he did, Reich will ALWAYS be remembered for his performance in the Comeback Game against Houston. It was a mythical, fairy tale performance that always brings tears to my eyes everytime I see a recast. (And unfortunately led me to believe that the Bills were a team of destiny that year heading into the Super Bowl.) I'd say he's a worthy addition to the Wall of Fame.

I think what everyone is saying is pretty much what we discovered ourselves last year. When everything else around him is up to snuff, he is capabale of being one of the better QBs in the league. Otherwise, he's actually NEVER been one of those -- like a Marino, Elway, or Kelly -- who could improvise and carry a team on his shoulders. I have always thought that having those formative years behind the tough-loving Parcells, served to hinder him in later years by playing for coaches that never demanded as much from him. In playing for guys like Pete Carrol and Gregg Williams, Drew allowed himself to become lazy. The real question is whether or not Parcells can turn that intensity back on -- or has Bledsoe's apathy even taken him beyond that point? For evidence, I look back at the 2002 season when he came to Buffalo with something to prove. (Can anyone ever forget that Minnesota game -- the intensity he showed?) For the first half of the season, he was even better than the Drew of old. Then he ran into a buzz saw in New England and never recovered. I would expect him to get off to another hot start in Dallas, as he once again has something to prove. With no New England (or even Buffalo) to worry about, he won't have to deal with the demons of old either. So I don't expect a mid-season collapse either. (Of course, he will have to face Greggy's Redskins twice... but everyone knows that the Skins have had trouble beating the 'Boys in recent years.) However, as any fantasy football geek out there knows, Bledsoe's MO (even during his prime years) was to fizzle out at the tail end of the season. All in all, I'd expect him to break the 3000 yard mark (which is at least something he hasn't done for the past two seasons).