Forward Progress

Knox is getting used to send a message to the rest of the league that there is a new rule being enforced. This is completely unfair to Knox.

When teams lose games like this one, they lose the opportunity to play in must win games later in the year. Wins in September count the same in the standings as the wins in December. I love the 1-0 mentality every week.

I agree. If Barkley has to play on Sunday, we could still walk away with a win.

More material for the Bill's "Internal Messaging"

As of two years ago, Brady had landed on the injury report 186 times. Nothing to see here.

Both Knox and Sweeney have proven to be capable when on the field. We haven't even had the chance to see Kroft yet, so I don't know what we're missing. This is when the depth that Beane has acquired and McDermott has developed really pays off. We can lose almost any starter on the team now and the next man up will be capable.

I am enjoying the improvement of our team, I really am, but this shift from expecting to lose to expecting to win feels very foreign to me. When I expect a loss, either: a) We lose as expected, or b) We win and I'm really happy When I expect a win, either: a) We win as expected, or b) We lose and I'm really upset My state of indifference on Sunday afternoons is coming to an end and I am more invested than I've been in a long time. Just like we used to win games we weren't supposed to win in the past, we will lose games that we aren't supposed to lose - hopefully not this Sunday. Thank you, therapists of TSW, for letting me express my feelings as I come to terms with a shifting reality.

If our future complaint is that we aren't good enough because it takes three downs to get a first, we are making progress.

It's nice having a QB who throws past the sticks on third down. Trent, EJ and Tyrod drove me crazy with their 3rd down checkdowns.

My second favorite team is whoever the Patriots* are playing.

This Bold Prediction is on the line tonight...

I wish I could watch football every day, but these Thursday games with just four days to recover aren’t worth it. Thursday games after a bye would be great, otherwise, they aren’t worth it for me.

I shouldn't, but I like it when the national media and fans of other teams think that we are trash. It's that much sweeter when we win.

I always use Bills Mafia, since I am the one and only Bills fan in my pools. No need for me to find a new name as the roster changes.

I still want our team to move the ball on offence and not give the ball back to our opponent. We’ve had a long history of run-run-run-punt playcalling with 4th quarter leads. The dream scenario for me is where your opponent knows that we will run the ball, we run the ball and get first downs anyway. I’m not convinced that we have a run game that can impose its will against a stacked box, so a balanced offence still makes the sense for our team playing with lead.

This is another great article from the Athletic. I had just finished reading before I saw this post. There are so many contributions that don't show up on the stat sheet, especially the hard-working guys in the trenches.

Honestly, I'm hoping for a 200 yard game because we got an early lead and we ran the ball so well. Big passing stats are fun and it would nice to quiet the "Allen can't throw a football" crowd, but the biggest passing games happen when we are playing from behind.

I was a goalie in hockey in my younger days and did the same drill. Reflexes can never be too fast.

I completely agree. When determining the future success of an NFL QB, there are so many intangibles that do not appear on a stat sheet. I really appreciate how much effort Beane’s team puts into player evaluations that go well beyond the analytics guys. Josh is a leader of men, with a large capacity to learn and an unbreakable competitive spirit. These traits will help Josh become the QB he that he will be one day. His floor is already much higher than we anticipated and the ceiling is very high.

The analytics camp is most interested in proving that their method of statistical evaluation is correct. That is the product that they sell to the market, so it is vital to the viability of their business that they consistently prove their model to be right. When you enter Josh's college stats into their model, it shows that it is statistically likely that a QB with Josh's stats will not have success at the NFL level. Any commentary, regarding Josh's performance from the analytics community is biased, because they need to continue to promote their products and prove their model to be accurate. In order to support their position, they will highlight every negative stat that they can from Josh's game (i.e. focus on the four turnovers and fully attribute them to Josh). However, we have to admit that, as Bills' fans, we are also biased and desperately want to see the positives in our QB. We will focus on the three scoring drives to win the game with our backs against the wall. The truth is somewhere in between to two extreme views, but I'm happier on the positive side, so I will stay there.

When we're facing elite running backs, like Bell and Barkley in the first two weeks, the defensive ends may prioritize setting the edge for the run game over getting to the QB. When they do this well they have a big influence on the success of the defense without showing up on the stat sheet. I guess what I'm saying is that it's hard to know who performed better without understanding their assignment for this game. Like you, I did notice Shaq making plays more than Murphy this week - I'm just not sure if that means he performed better or not.

Greg Williams likes to keep one safety deep, so I don’t expect the 75-yard TD pass this week. That high safety leaves us 11 vs. 10 on short to intermediate routes and benefits our run game. I expect a heavy dose of Beasley in the slot and Singletary/Gore to run effectively against an unstacked box. My 2 cents.

Oh, thinking with logic, huh? Next, you're gonna tell me the Flat Earthers are all wrong. I'm taking my tin foil hat and going home before you contradict any more of my deep-routed beliefs.

... who is willing to throw the ball to make first downs in an effort to score points and win the game, instead of boosting his QBR with 3-yard completions on 3rd and 8.

I used to feel that we were getting screwed more than other teams because we are a small market team. I don't believe that any more. If I'm being objective, I feel that we haven't had as many bad calls against us in the last two years as we did before. I think that well disciplined teams get the benefit of the doubt more than undisciplined teams. Here is an example of one against Jerry Hughes in 2014 who had a bad reputation for collecting unsportsmanlike 15-yard penalties: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/10/16/6985297/jerry-hughes-penalty-bills-patriots-2014 Hughes is tapping a teammate on the head after a great defensive stand and the referee assumes that Hughes is tapping the head of the opponent. It was a terrible call, but I think this was a case of confirmation bias, where the referee saw what he expected to see because of Jerry Hughes' reputation at the time. Under McDermott, I see more discipline from our players on the field and (without any data to support my opinion) I feel that we are getting screwed by bad calls less frequently.