OldTimer1960

Ok, so we are on about the same page?

Outstanding post. Great perspective.

Maybe true. I am somewhat risk averse. I like Mayfield, but he is no sure thing. Rosen certainly is a talented passer and very smart. If he is “all that”, though why would Cleveland take Darnold instead and why wouldn’t Jets or Broncos trade up as they have as much to offer as the Bills do.

I like Mayfield, but would rather trade 21, 22, 53 and 65 and keep next year’s first - IF you are willing to go that high. i would be pretty happy with Rudolph or Jackson near 21 or Mike White in round 2. Now, they aren’t maybe as good of prospects as Mayfield, but they also cost a LOT less giving you an opportunity to recover if they don’t pan out. How can you recover if you make that deal for Mayfield and he doesn’t pan out due to his height, off field problems or other reason?

This overlooks the fact that Foles can occasionally get hot, but he really isn’t very good as a starter and he is 29 - not exactly a young prospect. Before anyone jumps in and says he could have 8 years left because Brady is still playing - that is NOT likely.

I think that if they like him they should take him at 21. I could even support a small trade up for him. To me, I don’t see any worse prospect than any of the others. His arm may not be quite as strong, but it seems good enough to me and nobody would say that Brady has the best arm in the league. Agreed, so do you agree that the risk is less/ margin of error is greater for the Browns who have to give up nothing to take their shot at 1 AND still have 4, 33 and 35 to get very good prospects vs. trading 21, 22, 53 and next year’s first to take a shot AFTER the Browns pick?

No, you get what you HOPE is your QB.

Same could have been said of Goff after his rookie year. Most of these guys need a few years and some talent around them to look good. Many fans give up and turn nasty on these young QBs way too early. This is one of my big concerns with the idea of giving up a lot to “go get” a QB. There is one QB who looks ready to step in early- Rosen, but even he will struggle with little talent around him. Darnold is young with not a lot of experience. Same can be said of Allen with the additional concern about his accuracy in college (mitigated by his weak supporting cast). Mayfield looks to be a gamer, but he had GREAT talent around him and would not here. I think Lamar Jackson is going to look good early due to his insane running ability. I don’t know if he will pan out long-term (like Deshaun Watson) once teams take away their running option. i still don’t see why Mason Rudolph is an afterthought for many. I think he has just about the same chance of success as any of the others beyond Rosen. I also like Mike White - go watch all of his game cut-ups and tell me he doesn’t have good ability. Patience by fans and media should be the order of the day for whichever QB they draft.

I don’t think it is that simple. No draftee is a sure thing and no front office is infallible in their evaluation. It DOES matter a lot how much you have to invest to take a shot on a QB.

The best of that group was arguably Roethlisberger who was the 3rd one picked at 11.

Yes, but only happened 3 of 14 year’s - rest were floating a game or 2 around .500. Also, notably all 3 great seasons were early in Rivers’ career before they had to limit spending on other positions to pay him.

Point is over Rivers’ career how good have the Chargers been? I’d say pretty good when they have occasionally put good talent around him and not so good when they haven’t. Sure, Their highs have been a bit better than the Bills better seasons, but they hav not really ever been serious SB contenders.

But if the coin comes up tails and the QB is a bust, then what with no 1st next year? Also, Colts haven’t won much even though they have Andrew Luck.

NOBODY doesn’t want a franchise QB. BUT, you have to realize that just because you trade a TON to move up to take one of these guys doesn’t mean that you just locked in someone like Brady, Rodgers or Brees who can just carry a weak supporting cast. IF you are lucky, you get Phillip Rivers who has been very good, but has to have a good supporting cast. Would it be prudent to trade 21, 22, 53 and next year’s 1st for a young Rivers? And if the answer is yes, don’t forget you could also end up with RG3. BTW, note that none of Brady, Rodgers and Brees were high first round picks.

I’m with you. If he is healthy, he is worth far more than you could get in a trade. If he isn’t healthy, you won’t get much in trade.

Yes, and they very likely are not HOFers - maybe very good, but odds are way against HOF level. i am not sure we want to include Mariota with Goff and Wentz. He was pretty bad last year.

It appears to have worked out for Philly, but note that they moved up fro pick 8, not 21. Future draft picks in trades are typically “discounted” by a round per year in the future they are. So look at what Philly gave up: 1, 3 and 4 plus future 1=2,(discount by 1 round)future 2=4(2 years out discounted by 2 rounds). - so equivalent to 1 First 1 second, 1 third and 2 fourths. How do you think the Redskins fans feel about the trade up for Robert Griffin? If they hadn’t also drafted Cousins in the 4th, think how bad they would still be. (Sorry, I obviously didn’t see the post above that is very similar)

I think it is even a bit worse than this. 50% bust probability is about right, but the "other" 50% is probably really 48% "decent to good starter, but can't single-handedly carry a team" and 2% "HOF level team carrying superstar". if that is true, after giving up both firsts a 2nd and maybe next year's 1st, you need to hope you get a good starter and that he doesn't get ruined/run out of town in the next two years when the lack of picks will certainly hinder the ability to put a good team around him. Maybe by year 3 they'll be able to build some talent around him and the team can do well...

+1

I am not a scout, for sure, but I have watched a fair amount of game cut ups and I could make a case for any of the big 5 + Rudolph. I could even get behind Mike White in round 2. i think they all have enough physical talent to do well. What none of us know is how their knowledge of the game and work ethic. Give me the guy of the above that wants it most and can process what he sees the fastest.

I think that is possible, but I’ve been told over and over here that RBs are a dime a dozen and you should never take one before the mid rounds. (To be clear, I disagree with that sentiment).

Funny!

And Goodwin who played well enough for the Niners to get a BIG raise.

I would be VERY depressed if they did that for Foles.

I agree with your statement, I just don’t see how the move suggests that they are trading for Foles.