OldTimer1960

Why do you think that? i see Cleveland as a soon-to- be-very-good team. They have the 1st and 4th picks, why would they be interested in signing Keenum, who likely (IMHO) will regress to his “mean” which is not very good?

I keep reading about “will they take a flyer on TBD player”. I have always thought that this meant to spend a lower round pick on a player with very good physical talent, but either not a lot of production or production at a lower level of competition. I don’t see even a top 3 round pick as “taking a flyer”. What do other folks see this as?

So, you don’t like Rudolph? ?

You would not have liked John Elway then. “His” record was under .500 his senior season.

It isn’t even for sure that they were wrong on Watson. He certainly had a GREAT start, but it was a very limited sample and there have been lots of guys who have a good start, but fade when NFL defenses figure out how to game-plan them. I am NOT saying that will happen to Watson, but there is definitely a chance it could. Right on. Not sure that they do have the necessary ammo. I don’t think they have the draft picks to get to the 2nd to 4th pick to get Darnold or Rosen - at least not that I would be willing to give up. Of course, if they are willing to give up several high picks this year and next year, they might be able get there, but that is too rich for my blood.

Could very well have been the case if they had been there.

I agree with this. A rookie could learn from Taylor's professionalism, but isn't going to learn an awful lot about actually playing the position from Taylor. I agree that Fitz and McCown would be better guys for that role.

Agreed.

If it hasn't already been stated, this looks like it means the Bills won't be in the Cousins Derby. I don't think they would spend that $6M on Taylor's bonus if they were pursuing the FA QB that is going to cost a boatload of $.

That is true. That makes it a $6M insurance policy. That isn’t that bad in comparison to the cap limit.

That is true to some extent, but presumably they like the QB that they are negotiating with better than Taylor so they still have to negotiate against other team’s offers. I am not seeing a position of strength. Of course, if the one they are negotiating with is a draft choice, then having Taylor won’t help n negotiating because the deal is mostly determined by the slot they were drafted in and deals signed by players drafted around the same time.

They must think that they can trade him for more than I think they can. I would be surprised if they could get a 5th round pick for him and that would not seem to be worth paying his $6M bonus this year. I expect if they do this, they are declaring that they won’t be big FA buyers (wasted cap money).

Good call - they pick later, but they also could be willing to move up for a QB. it isn’t certain that they will keep any of their current QBs. Vikes are built to win now, so might favor a veteran FA option, but if they look for a starter in the draft, they will want to get high enough to get someone who might be able to start now.

If both 1sts and 1 second gets them to 5, I’d be quite happy. I wonder how they rank the QBs and whether they would be happy with any of 2 or 3 that could be available.

4 of 11 starters on defense - more than 1/3 of the defense - is made up of DBs, so it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise that a lot of DBs get drafted. In many cases, teams play an extra DB and then 45% of the defensive players are DBs.

I think “dominate” is used very loosely in this context. I can think of a few times. That Taylor has had a decent game by NFL standards, but none in which he has been anywhere remotely close to dominant.

Following up on your train of thought: Denver, Jets, Dolphins and Cards all in the QB market. I think between Cleveland and Giants Darnold and Rosen will be off the board (Eli is old and Giants have a rare opportunity to get a top QB prospect). Say Broncos sign Cousins, I then expect Jets to take either Mayfield or Allen. That means after pick 6 Jackson, Rudolph and Allen or Mayfield are left. The next most desperate team is the Cards - they have a good defense and some offensive pieces in David Johnson and the aged Larry Fitzgerald. I could imagine them signing Breadford and hoping he has one last healthy run in him. Miami is interesting because I think Tannehill is decent and I don’t see any FA QB as an upgrade other than Cousins. Of the two, I think Arizona is more likely to sign a FA and pass on QB in the draft. If Miami wants to upgrade at QB,their only option is the draft. Either way, I think whoever between Mayfield or Allen is left will be picked by one of thos teams. That leaves Bills with a choice between Rudolph and Jackson. if the Bills want someone other than those two, they will likely pay a significant price to get ahead of Miami. if they can find a trade partner, I could be on board with trading both 1sts to get high enough to get the 4th QB. I am am clearly not optimistic that the Bills can get high enough to get one of the top 3

Sorry didn’t read your post closely enough earlier. If all that holds true, Miami and Cards could both take QBs before Buffalo picks. Even if Denver or Jets sign Cousins, I think Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield will all be gone before a pick that the Bills could realistically get to without giving up a King's ransom. My mental picture of those 3 is: Rudolph: highest floor, lowest ceiling but could be decent to good starter, Jackson and Allen: Highest ceilings, but lowest floors - could be great, or never even be a decent starter. I think that Darnold and Rosen will at least be competent starters at the least. I like Mayfield a lot, but there is some chance that he doesn't make it because of his size.

I'm not arguing, but I'm not following your math. If there were 44 QBs picked in the top 20 in that time period and of those times, there were 6 occurrences of teams that also signed a FA QB, then I think the raw probability is 6/44 or a bit over 13%. Even with that, I think you have to consider the FA QBs that were available as well as what QBs were picked in the draft and how early/late they were selected. In the case of a team who was planning to draft a QB in round 1, whether they also signed a FA QB would have depended on what FA QBs were available and what veteran QB(s) that team already had on their roster. I think each situation has to be considered separately. Denver, for example, currently has Paxton Lynch and Trevor Simeon. They also currently have an excellent defense and a good amount of talent on offense as well. I think it may be that Denver says, "we know that Case Keenum is better than what we currently have, but we think Baker Mayfield has much better long-term potential. We also don't think Mayfield is quite ready to start". If they think that way, it would make sense for them to sign a vet like Keenum AND draft a QB at 5. Now, no debate, if Denver signs Cousins to a big contract, they won't likely take a QB early. The Jets, on the other hand, are not so close to being a contender and likely would not see value in signing a veteran AND drafting a QB. If they were inclined to go that route, they'd just keep McCown as that veteran and draft a young QB. Beyond the Broncos and Jets, Miami (11), Cinci (12), Washington (13) and Arizona (15) could all consider a QB in round 1. Of those teams, I think only Arizona would consider signing a FA QB because I don't think the FA QBs (other than Cousins) are clear upgrades over Tannehill, Dalton and Alex Smith. Yet, I don't think any of those teams are so sold on their current QB that they would not strongly consider taking a QB.

Hope this means that Lake Dawson is staying in the Bills' personnel department, at least for now.

Agreed. For sure all of the QBs in the draft have questions that would give me pause before I spent a lot of draft picks to move up to take one. I was only postulating that I could envision a team's strategy being: "Let's sign McCarron or Bradford or Keenum. Because we are not sold on those guys being long-term answers (for varied reasons), let's also take one of the highly rated QBs in hopes that he IS the long-term answer".

Agreed, but the only FA QB on that list that I think teams will seriously think are long-term answers (ie, no need to draft a QB) is Cousins. A team signing any of the other FA QBs would still be wise to draft a QB early. Keenum and McCarron have limited track records of success and have always been thought of as backups - they could blossom, but they could prove to be what most always thought. Bridgewater has serious health questions (knee) and was promising, but not great before his devastating injury. Bradford is very good when healthy, but has a long injury history.

It is certainly possible that the Bills get shutout of the top QB prospects. In spite of having an extra 1st and 2nd round pick, those are both bottom 1/3 of the respective rounds. Relative to the Broncos and Jets, the Bills do not own a massive draft capital advantage that would unquestionably allow them to jump ahead of either. It is possible that the Bills might be able to pull off a trade, but it is by no means a certainty.

I think even a late 2nd is too steep for Foles. He had a hot streak at the right time in the playoffs. If the Eagles will take the 3rd they sent us for Darby straight up for Foles, I’d be on board.

Not an issue to be concerned with, IMHO.