OldTimer1960

For some it seems the first incomplete pass he throws will be "timely". i think the only 2 guys really ready to play early are Rosen and Darnold. I like Mayfield a lot, but the size/speed adjustment will be big and NFL defenses are a lot different than what he typically faced at Oklahoma. Jackson is clearly not a refined passer, but he could become a very exciting NFL QB if he becomes a little better passer.

I think it is pretty rare, maybe mostly because of the problems you highlighted. Here is a trade from 2016, late round pick for a player. The picks involved were late enough that they must not have been very worried about what would happen if Martin hadn't passed the Pats' physical. get pick from Pats for WR Texans receive: » 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 166): D.J. Reader Patriots receive: » WR Keshawn Martin » 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 196): Traded to Dolphins

Are you saying that McCarron has anywhere near that physical talent that Favre had?

I would not give up much, maybe no more than a 4th for Foles. He excelled for a short time with a good offensive cast and a very good defense. He had some DUD games that the Eagles’ D bailed him out of late in the year.

Based on his VERY limited NFL resume, anything more than a minimum contract is a big gamble. I am NOT saying that he might not be good. However, if the Bengals don’t think he is a challenger for the much higher paid Andy Dalton, I would not hold much hope that he is an answer as a good starting QB. Wow, does NOT look like an elite trained athlete.

I agree. He might never be as accurate as you want or he might get better, but at least he is willing to throw the ball.

I don’t think Taylor is “trash”, but he is,at best, a marginal starter who is not being paid top-tier $, but more than marginal starter/backup money. I will be pleasantly surprised if they can trade him for a 5th round pick.

I agree completely. As much as we want the next HOF QB, I don’t think a huge trade up is worth the risk. Rosen is uber-talented, has had head injuries and might not be completely dedicated to football, Darnold has a tremendous arm, but ha 20+ turnovers this year alone and I love Mayfield’s competitiveness and productivity, but he is for sure bucking the odds at his height. IF they trade way up, I hope it is for Mayfield, but I think they sit tight, possibly trading up just a bit in hopes of getting one of the other QBs that they like. Without a major trade up, it might be worth taking a chance on Allen, Jackson or Rudolph.

Would be wonderful, but I don't think there is any realistic chance that Payne and Evans last to the bottom 1/3 of the 2nd round.

I think we are in general agreement. I think the Bills' buying power to move way to the top of the draft would take a great deal. I agree that if they keep the picks that they have, they have a good shot to address some holes with both picks in round 1 and 2. However, if they do make a big move to the top of the draft, I think that would exhaust most of their high-value draft picks. I also don't think that they'll move up all the way to the top. I could see them making a modest trade up to try to nab a QB who is probably not named Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield (because they won't trade up far enough to get them). I would be totally on-board with addressing the Defense with multiple early picks as they had some success last year largely on the strength of cashing a number of turnovers - that is great, but not predictable. I am excited to see what they decide to do. They DO have some extra spending money (picks). I hope that they can get a good QB prospect without sacrificing too many of those picks to allow them to also address other needs.

No, this is maybe the 3rd time in this thread that I have tried to tell you that is not my point at all. Once again, I am saying that having extra draft picks is good, but the extra draft picks the Bills have are not as valuable in terms of trade up value as many seem to think. For clarity, I reiterate - I am happy that the Bills have extra picks, those extra picks give them some extra buying power that other teams don't have. The only thing that I disagree with you in your post that I quoted is that you assigned to me a position that is not my position at all. Scenario - either Denver or Jets want the 3rd QB remaining in the draft, as do the Bills. Denver's 1st and 2nd round picks this year are more valuable in a trade up than the Bills' two first round picks. If Denver was willing to trade their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick, the Bills would have to trade both 1sts and both 2nds to have a competitive offer. I fully grasp your point, extra draft picks are valuable. For the record, I have always understood that.

I am not one who thinks that Peterman’s disastrous game against the Chargers forever defines him, but I don’t think his presence on the roster impacts the Bills’ draft plans at all. Additionally, I think that Rudolph is a considerably better prospect. i do think though that they might prefer Jackson or Allen if they are within reasonable range.

Echo the congratulations and I am happy that the Bills are not losing Their D-coordinator.

I think that they may have to trade up ahead of Arizona to get the guy that they like best among the guys left, assuming Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield are out of reach. Every one of Rudolph’s games that I’ve watched leaves me wondering why the draft media thinks he will be available at pick 21. He isn’t fast but I was impressed with each game I’ve watched.

But several other teams don't have to move up as far so they won't need to offer as much. Just going by one of the common draft value charts, Denver's 1st and 2nd pick are worth more than the Bills' two 1sts.

They will for sure bring at least 3 QBs to camp - too much wear and tear on arms if there are only 2 QBs in camp. i could envision a modest-level vet being who they target. If they draft someone like Rudolph or even Rosen, it might be smart to bring in a vet like Ryan Fitzpatrick who surely has a lot of knowledge and prepares like a pro - he just doesn’t have optimal physical talent to be a top NFL player. I think Fitz could be a really good QB coach after he is done playing, if he is interested in doing that. Think about Fitz with Rudolph and Mike Wite or Kyle Lauletta or Peterman. Josh McCown fits the Fitz “smart vet” profile as Fitz with a smidge Bette physical tools. Wouldn’t quibble with either.

Even I they sign a vet, nothing says they even need to bring Peterman to camp if they think they have 2 better rookies.

Extenuating circumstances for sure, but surely USC 3rd stringers are still better than the talent Josh Allen played with. Please don’t think I am trying to argue that Allen is a better prospect, but if Darnold gets a pass for that game, you have to at least consider giving Allen some credit for hanging in with what he had to work with.

However they get one, I just hope that they finally get a guy who we can at least get excited to think he could succeed. It really has been soooo long.

I think you are right about the numbers - I was just going for an example. I am am not advocating this, but using these adjusted numbers, let’s say that Jackson also has 25% of success. 3 premium picks to get Darnold to have a 50% chance of success or 21 and 22 for Jackson and Rudolph with 44% chance. Again, not saying that is what they should do, just saying I could see why a team *might* consider it.

I understand your point, but you REALLY have to be confident that the guy you give all that up for will end up a good starting QB. Let’s say that we think that Darnold has a 75% chance of becoming a good starter. For the sake of argument, let’s say Rudolph has a 55% chance of the same and maybe White has a 40% chance. Is using 3 premium picks on Darnold and still having a 25% chance of failure better or worse than using 2 picks on Rudolph and White and have nearly the same 27% chance of failure? I’m not necessarily arguing not to trade up, but I could also see the latter approach as not bad. Of course, if the chance of success assigned to the players is different that would tilt the scale one way or the other. I understand that this is a very simplistic way to look at it - it treats success as a binary value and, of course there are degrees of success/failure.

I don’t think Peterman’s nightmare game necessarily is the end for him, but still if the Biss take someone like Jackson, Allen or Rudolph without a major trade up, I would have no problem at all if they took another QB as high as their 2nd 2nd round pick if they think the guy is a good prospect to be a starter eventually. If both QBs pan out, they could always trade one.

Darnold is a good maybe very good QB prospect, but if you think you want to trade 21, 22 and at least another high pick for him, go watch his USC vs Notre Dame game last season. I did not see him come remotely close to carrying USC in that game. I get that it was only one game, but if you are giving up a great deal to get him, I think you are hoping that he can carry your offense. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to have him for a reasonable price - heck I'd be happy with a QB that at least gives you a chance to win in most situation - it has been a long time since the Bills have had that. I am not opposed to trading up to secure a QB prospect in this draft. I can even see the argument to trade 21 and 22 to move up for the right prospect, but I really am leery of giving up more than that. Unfortunately, I don't think that is enough to get Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield. I might be content to 21 and a 2nd to move up a little and take Jackson or Rudolph and still have pick 22 left. I am also not as down on Josh Allen as many here? I haven't watched as many games as some here, but I think that both Jackson and Rudolph are better than they are generally being given credit for.

I never said that having extra draft picks is a bad thing. I also know very well that really good players have been found in every round of the draft and as UDFAs. What I have been saying is that the Bills are not as rich in picks as some seem to think.

I know that Darnold is considered a very good prospect, but his 13 interceptions and 11 fumbles this year would make me think very hard before I would be willing to trade what it would take to get high enough in the draft to get him. That is an awful lot of turnovers in one season...