OldTimer1960

Wouldn''t be opposed to sitting tight and taking Rudolph or Jackson or other QB at 21 and then following up maybe as early as the 3rd with a Mike White or Kyle Lauletta. The implication being that they would think White or Lauletta was a significant upgrade over Peterman - if not, then no

We are in total alignment. I was just feeling that there is this prevailing opinion (at least some) that the picks the Bills have are more valuable than they really are. I'll admit that my sense of that was formed mostly listening to WGR and a different Rochester sports talk show where the hosts and callers talk as if the Bills have an endless supply of extra picks that can be traded to move up AND to address several other needs.

That isn't quite what I was saying. I am not saying that only top 10 picks are valuable. I was saying that the picks that the Bills do have, though nice, is not a treasure trove of untold riches. In other words, I am very glad that they have the extra picks, they can be useful and I hope they get good value out of them either in trade up or in using them all. I was just highlighting that the Bills picks are 21,22, 53, 56 and 96 (or close to that). That isn't nearly as valuable as picks 1, 2, 32, 33, and 65 - all of which are in the same round as the Bills' picks.

That is absolutely my point. For example, the Bills' 3rd round pick is 96 overall (or close to that), that isn't as valuable as pick 67 which is also in the same round. I didn't say that the picks are not valuable, only that there seems to be a prevailing perceptions that they are so flush with valuable picks that they can accomplish anything that they want in the draft. My only point was that they don't have the buying power that it seems some people think. For comparison, Cleveland has crazy draft capital with picks 1, 4, 33, 35, 64.

Your right, I don't think that those 2nd round picks are without value, but they aren't the same as having 2 picks high in round 2. All that I am really saying is that it seems some are saying that the Bills have 2 1sts, 2 2nds a 3rd, 4th and two 5ths without acknowledging that the 2 #1s are in the bottom 1/3 of the round, the 2 #2s are in the bottom 1/3 of that round and the 3rd is the very last pick in that round. If we follow the draft value chart posted earlier in the thread, the Bills' 2 1sts are roughly equivalent to the 4th or 5th pick in round 1 and the Bills' 2 2nd round picks together are worth about the same as the 29th pick in round 1. That is certainly nothing to sneeze at, just less than I think many believe. Now, with the demand for QBs, I think it will cost more than the Bills' 2 1sts to get into the top 5 to nab a QB. If they were able to trade only their 2 1sts to get Rosen, Darnold or, maybe, Mayfield I'd be happy.

Nice job. Qualitatively you have shown that once you get out of the very top of round one, it is pretty hard to find a good QB. I think what you did shows that quite well.

I did not mean to imply that I was some super scout. I do think that Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield are good, maybe very good prospects, but IF the Bills were to trade up high enough to get one of them, it will leave very little left to address other needs. i know that no prospect is perfect, but I would be leery of trading 2 1sts and a 2nd (maybe more) for any of them. With Rosen you have to worry if he really wants to play, Darnold had a ton of turnovers this year and Mayfield's height might be a problem in the NFL. Sure, I'd be happy to have any of the 3, but at how high of a price? i am hoping that they can make a small move up to get someone like Jackson or Rudolph and still have 2 1st and at least one 2nd left. I agree with the theme of your post. If they don't trade a lot to move up for a QB, I think they can get some good players -or- they can trade a lot and hopefully get a QB but little other help. My main argument is that they likely can't do both.

That is what I was trying to say in this thread.

I could also cite upside anomalies picked later in the draft ad nauseum. Are you suggesting that a 3rd round pick(like Wilson) is as likely to find a good starting QB as a high first round pick? Nobody would argue that there isn't some small chance that you can find a valuable player late in the draft or even as an undrafted FA. That is not the same as saying that it doesn't matter where in the draft you pick - you have an equal chance of finding a good QB.

I am not arguing that the Bills don't have ammo to improve the overall roster, but the notion that they have some awesome amount of picks that will let them trade up to get any QB that they want is fallacious. Further, their selections in round 2 and especially round 3 are underwhelming.

Why do you have to come off as a know-it-all? How about a reasonable counter argument?

A good starting CB is a lot easier to find (and less valuable in terms of building a winning team) than a good starting QB.

You are right $10 is as good as $100 in purchase power.

There is a LOT of hype about haw draft capital rich the Bills are this year. Looking at the Bills’ picks this year, it seems that they are a lot poorer than the hype. in round 1, Bills picks 21st and 22nd. Neither pick is a prime selection. *Maybe* a trade of both picks gets them high enough to get a good QB prospect. in round 2, both picks are in the bottom third of the round. All of the exciting players who might be left till round 2 will be long gone by the Bills’ 2 late picks in this round. The Bills’ own pick in round 3 was traded for Kelvin Benjamin- like that trade... BUT the remaining “draft capital “ in round 3 is the very LAST pick of the round. It is unlikely that pickbis finding a long-term contributor. Round 4 may give a shot at a mid-level contributor for a few years and the 5th round picks are fairly long shots to ever be a contributor. Bottom line, I don’t see a QB in this draft worth trading the farm for. So far this offseason, I have no reason to believe that any of Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph are any worse prospect than Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield. With the the recognition that waiting until 21 might get them shut out of the QB derby, I can’t see a powerful case to pay a lot to trade up...

If the Vike’ings let Bridgewater hit free agency, then there should be serious questions about his health. Bridgewater had a VERY SERIOUS knee injury and is very questionable to come back to play at NFL level. I think that Miami was happy to take Dan Marino late in the 83 first round. It just is not a very exact science.

I would not trade much for him. He had one good season and a few good games at the best time after Wentz was injured. Chances are high that he returns to his average-at-best self with extended playing time. I don’t think that it would be wise to trade for Foles, unless the price is a 3rd round pick or later. Alex Smith is FAR more accomplished and he cost only a 3rd and a non-stellar CB.

While I am not in favor of a big trade up, it would be disappointing to not come out of round 1 with a decent QB prospect. I don’t think that they will be able to even get a Mike White kind of guy where the sit in round 2 without moving up.

I think that they can use their full time for pick 21 and right up to the end of the allotted time for pick 22 without risk of the team with pick 23 jumping ahead of them. However, this only helps them if they want to trade one of those picks for a player or trade back to a later pick. If their objective is to move up for a QB, waiting until their pick is too late to ponder that.

I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that it isn't extremely desirable to have a great QB. If you can get someone on the level of Brady, Rodgers, Brees or even Rothlisberger, you can at least contend almost every year. Beyond a handful of guys like that, you need a reasonably balanced team with competent NFL QB and then you hope to compete. Still, looking at sustained great players like above, how many have there been in the draft over the last decade? It is going to be very hard and costly to get to the top of the draft for a shot at one of these guys whom you hope can carry your team. I'm game for a small trade up to take a chance on Rudolph or Jackson or Mayfield, if he makes it out of the top-10. At least with those guys you have a *hope* that they can bring competent QB play. None of the QBs in this year's draft are sure things.

I am hoping for QB and DL if they hold onto both first round picks.

For sure, the Pats often trade down for extra picks or trade a current year pick for a future pick one round earlier. The link below shows several years that they had multiple 2nd/3rd round picks. From a glance, I didn't see many brilliant picks in there. I think that you are right that they don't hit on a higher rate of selections, but they have more chances. I still think, though, that Brady and Belichick are the reason that they have won so much rather than their draft system. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm

If they can’t get in range to get a good QB prospect, i’D be game to trade 21 or 22 for a 1st next year and a top 1/2 of the second round pick this year. Thought being that if you don’t have a QB, they likely will finish lower than they did this year and an earlier 1st of their own and an extra 1st hopefully would allow them to move way up in round 1 to get a good QB prospect.

Problem is how to get him. For all the talk about the amount of “draft capital “ that the Bills have, their picks are all pretty late in each round. Let’s say that they trade a 1st and their own 2nd to move up a bit to grab Rudolph or Jackson. They would still own pick 22, but likely have to get a DT, possibly DE there. Their next pick would be late in Round 2, probably too late to get a guy like him. Their 3rd round pick will either be 31st or 32nd in round 3, so not very valuable if they want to move up in round 2.

Bledsoe was at the end of his career, but in his first season here, he was clearly the best QBthe Bills have had since Kelly. That year he threw for 4359 yards (272 per game) and 24 TDs on a not great Bills team.

I agree that they coach better and, most importantly, have the greatest QB ever and he his playing on a comparatively inexpensive contract. I don’t think that they necessarily draft better than other teams. Brady’s play and Belichick’s coaching account for most of their success. i forget who said it, but it was a high profile NFL coach or GM: He (Belichick) can take his and beat your’s and he can take your’s and beat his.