OldTimer1960

Again, projected by whom? Some NFL scouts may be a lot higher on White than the draft pundits. I am not saying that is necessarily the case, but it might very well be true.

I see it similarly.

Carson Wentz went to Freaking North Dakota State, Derek Carr went freaking Fresno State and Ben Roethlisberger is from freaking Miami of Ohio. Some small-school prospects do ok.

Agreed. I am not dissing Cousins - he is good, but I don’t think he is going to single-handedly carry a poor supporting cast - he wasn’t able to carry the Skins to success. For what he will get, the “winning” team will have to cut corners elsewhere.

I think that if they were serious about bidding for Cousins, they wouldn’t be willing to pay Taylor’s $6M bonus.

All true, but the current value of those assets acquired last year are a lot lower than they expected. When they made that deal, I imagine that they thought their own pick would be in the top 10 and KC’s pick about where it ended up. Now, it will take both picks just to get to where they thought their own pick would be. Also pretty sure that they thought the 2nd from the Rams would be a lot earlier than it is. I suspect they expected to have picks around 10, 22, 42 and 45. Instead, they have 21, 22, 53 and 56. They will have to adjust their strategy.

Gonna be hard to outbid Denver who already has the 5th pick.

Bills’ don’t need the “most ready to play” guy. They need the guy who will be best over the long-haul. But, just to play along, if they can’t get Rosen or Mayfield, do you think Darnold, Allen or Jackson are really ready to play immediately?

In 2014, Blake Bortles, Jonny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater were all rated higher than Derek Carr (and were drafted before Carr). Yet, most would say that. Carr is the best QB from that draft. in 2012, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin 3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weldon and Brock Osweiler were the top QB prospects and all but Osweiler went in round 1and Osweiler round 2. Russell Wilson went in the 3rd, Kirk Cousins in the 4th and Nick Foles also went in the 3rd.

They really don’t have as much draft capital as many think. Because both 1sts and both 2nd are in the bottom 1/3 of the respective rounds, it will be very difficult to out-bid Denver or the Jets at the top for any of the top 3. i am sure that the plan is not to try to unearth an overlooked prospect. But none of know how they have graded the QBs. Scenario: Vikings sign Cousins, Browns take Rosen 1st, Giants take Darnold and Denver or the Jets trade a 2nd or 3rd rounder with Colts and take Mayfield. They would have to think very hard before giving up both 1sts to move up for Allen or Jackson. Now, if those guys drop to where maybe 21 & 53 get them there, maybe OK. But, none of us know what they think of any of these QBs. It is not too much of a stretch to think that they might not like Allen, Jackson or Rudolph any better than they might like Mike White. For sure Allen’s arm and Jackson’s running are elite traits, but they are risky guys in that you don’t really know if either will ever be accurate enough. White has a strong arm, maybe better than Rudolph’s. Maybe they think White is that cerebral pocket passer that they are looking for. Just because the draft analysts see things one way, it doesn’t mean that some pro scouts don’t see thing differently.

Agree

Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garropolo, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Drew Brees and Tom Brady might disagree. I am not saying that it wouldn't be nice to get a top prospect, but: 1. Some good starting QBs can be found after round 1 (for sure a lower probability) 2. They are not getting high enough to get Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield -'after them I'm not sold enough on Allen, Jackson or Rudolph to trade up much for one of them.

Yes and he was tough. He became a fan whipping boy here, but he had a decent career.

If they want Rudolph, I think that they will have to either take him in the 1st or would have to trade up in the 2nd. I don't think they can expect him to be available at pick 53.

No question that they finished off the WR position after they had gotten Goff, but my point is that the Rams had been collecting serious talent for more than 2 years prior to them taking off in Goff's 2nd year. Here is a link to the Rams' depth chart. The numbers to the right of the player names are the year/round acquired in the draft. Other means of acquisition are also identified. 7 of their 22 starters were drafted in round 1 by them. Another 6 of their starters were drafted by them in the 2nd or 3rd round. They also added Watkins via trade (former 1st rounder acquired for a 2nd). Hava a look - it is a really impressive roster. http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/LAR

It is true that McDermott traded down last year in hopes of having ammo to get a QB this year, they ended up winning too much and losing that bet. Their draft picks won’t be enough to get high enough for on of the top 2 or 3. Not sure they should not be content moving up just a little to take their pick of who is left after the initial frenzy.

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/laremy-tunsils-pot-tweet-best-thing-to-happen-to-dolphins-since-dan-marinos-coke-rumors-8423998

Dan Marino dropped in the draft due to rumors of cocaine use.

But who is that QB? This is a deep class of QBs, but that doesn’t mean that just any of the top rated QBs are going to be good. if they aren’t convinced that Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen are nearly certain to be at least very good starters, then trading that much to get one of them is foolish. I think it might be better to sit tight and see who falls out of the top of the draft. If they think one of the remaining guys is worth going up for then (for less than the cost to get into top 5), then go ahead. If they move up, they need to think that guy can carry a team, because there is a good chance you could trade a lot to move up for Andy Dalton, Alex Smith or much worse. i don’t think any of us know which of these QB, if any, will become a super star who can carry a less talented team to success.

Rams already had a boatload of young defensive talent that had grown into a very good defense. Defense was all young and several young offensive pieces including the amazing Todd Gurley. They also brought in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. The Rams are. VERY talented team courtesy of many years of drafting in the top of each round and aided by being on the winning end of the Robert Griffin trade. Don’t kid yourself, Goff was a more a missing piece than “the guy” that carried a weak supporting cast to great performance. Don’t discount the positive impact that Gurley had as the 2nd leading rusher with 1300 yards, 13 TDS, and 4.7 yards per carry. If the QB can’t thrive with that support, he is on life support. The Bills are a much older (and expensive) and less talented team than the Rams were when they traded up for Goff. Briefly turn your attention to Wentz and the Eagles - clearly they were VERY talented and well-coached to have been able to make their way through a stacked NFC playoffs to win the Super Bowl with a backup QB.

Browns already own picks 1, 4, 33, 35. That is, 4 picks before the 2nd round is 4 picks old. They can get good in a hurry.

I agree, that coveted receiver traits are different than success rates on 4th down, but I do think that the point is similar. I agree that a team should always be monitoring trends and try to be ahead of the change curve. I think that is a lot of what the Eagles did this year, I think next year will be tougher for that strategy.

I respectfully think that if teams started going for it on 4th down on a regular basis that defenses would definitely adjust and the success rate would drop dramatically. I can remember when small, quick “smurf” receivers became all the rage, then defenses adjusted. Next big receivers were what everyone wanted and then defenses have adjusted. Now the tide is turning again. i just think that NFL defenses will adjust accordingly if more offenses start going for it on 4th down.

I am generally open to taking BPA, but I agree this year - if you aren’t trading up for a (hopeful) candidate to be the long-term QB, then stay put.

I agree that the likelihood of success is situational. I think that teams mainly go for it on 4th when they think they have a favorable chance or have no choice due to game situation. I really think the success rate would go down significantly if teams started going for it in those down and distances regularly.