OldTimer1960

No to Brees, he is a rental at his age.

Agreed, but I can’t think of many better coaches to study under than Belichick and Saban. Still to be sure he will need talent to work with in order to succeed.

Almost sure that they will sign some FA QB, but do you think that they will view him as anything more than a stopgap?

After Goff’s rookie year folks were laughing at the Rams for trading up to get him. He might be good, but needs a lot of talent around him to succeed (as do most QBs). In other words, give up many picks to move up for a QB and watch them fall if you can’t surround them with decent talent.

Please check the value of those picks. I’ve already done so in other threads. I think it will surprise you. Spoiler: Before the Taylor trade Jets picks in rounds 1-3 were worth more than the Bills’ multiple picks and Denver’s weren’t far off.

But who are the top QBs in the league? Brady 6th round, Brees 2nd round, Rodgers - late first, Roethlisberger- 11th pick, Wilson -3rd,.... Finding a very good QB is very hard to do. Just trading a lot to move up does not guarantee anything.

Isn’t that true of most OC? The best coaches have great players, not the other way round... Bill Belichick was run out of Cleveland. He is a great coach, but he would have been fired years ago if he didn’t have Brady. What did he have to work with in those early gigs? Almost no coaches can turn turds into diamonds.

I will be surprised if the Bills are very interested in any of the FA QBs unless they can get them cheap. I think that beyond Cousins they are all reaches.

Are you saying that Tony Eason, Todd Blackledge and Ken O’Brien ever “pretty good”? O’Brien was the best of the bunch by far, but I am sure that few here would be happy if they traded a lot to move up for an equivalent player.

But why? He has been in the league for 6 full seasons and hasn’t been able to hold onto a starting gig, in spite of one great season in Philly.

I would not give them a 2nd - either 53 or 56 for Foles - he is “Foles gold” - at least in my opinion.

Not true for the Jets and marginally true for the Broncos. The top of the 3rd pick for Taylor helps a lot, but 21 in each round is worth a lot less than the 5th or 6th pick in each round.

Because they know that they caught lightning in a bottle and they want to trade him for more than he is worth.

Yep - he (Foles) knows that he is marginal and doesn’t have the drive to fight through that. I would not give more than a third round pick for him and even at that that I wouldn’t count on him.

Ok, so we are on about the same page?

Outstanding post. Great perspective.

Maybe true. I am somewhat risk averse. I like Mayfield, but he is no sure thing. Rosen certainly is a talented passer and very smart. If he is “all that”, though why would Cleveland take Darnold instead and why wouldn’t Jets or Broncos trade up as they have as much to offer as the Bills do.

I like Mayfield, but would rather trade 21, 22, 53 and 65 and keep next year’s first - IF you are willing to go that high. i would be pretty happy with Rudolph or Jackson near 21 or Mike White in round 2. Now, they aren’t maybe as good of prospects as Mayfield, but they also cost a LOT less giving you an opportunity to recover if they don’t pan out. How can you recover if you make that deal for Mayfield and he doesn’t pan out due to his height, off field problems or other reason?

This overlooks the fact that Foles can occasionally get hot, but he really isn’t very good as a starter and he is 29 - not exactly a young prospect. Before anyone jumps in and says he could have 8 years left because Brady is still playing - that is NOT likely.

I think that if they like him they should take him at 21. I could even support a small trade up for him. To me, I don’t see any worse prospect than any of the others. His arm may not be quite as strong, but it seems good enough to me and nobody would say that Brady has the best arm in the league. Agreed, so do you agree that the risk is less/ margin of error is greater for the Browns who have to give up nothing to take their shot at 1 AND still have 4, 33 and 35 to get very good prospects vs. trading 21, 22, 53 and next year’s first to take a shot AFTER the Browns pick?

No, you get what you HOPE is your QB.

Same could have been said of Goff after his rookie year. Most of these guys need a few years and some talent around them to look good. Many fans give up and turn nasty on these young QBs way too early. This is one of my big concerns with the idea of giving up a lot to “go get” a QB. There is one QB who looks ready to step in early- Rosen, but even he will struggle with little talent around him. Darnold is young with not a lot of experience. Same can be said of Allen with the additional concern about his accuracy in college (mitigated by his weak supporting cast). Mayfield looks to be a gamer, but he had GREAT talent around him and would not here. I think Lamar Jackson is going to look good early due to his insane running ability. I don’t know if he will pan out long-term (like Deshaun Watson) once teams take away their running option. i still don’t see why Mason Rudolph is an afterthought for many. I think he has just about the same chance of success as any of the others beyond Rosen. I also like Mike White - go watch all of his game cut-ups and tell me he doesn’t have good ability. Patience by fans and media should be the order of the day for whichever QB they draft.

I don’t think it is that simple. No draftee is a sure thing and no front office is infallible in their evaluation. It DOES matter a lot how much you have to invest to take a shot on a QB.

The best of that group was arguably Roethlisberger who was the 3rd one picked at 11.

Yes, but only happened 3 of 14 year’s - rest were floating a game or 2 around .500. Also, notably all 3 great seasons were early in Rivers’ career before they had to limit spending on other positions to pay him.