OldTimer1960

I’m a little concerned about Oliver’s (under) size. A DT at his size HAS to be dynamic and you have to realize that your run D is likely to suffer if you are playing a 280lb DT.

I haven’t watched enough/read enough about this year’s prospects yet, but what I have seen in games and read about Hockenson is intriguing. He is reportedly an outstanding blocker and pretty good receiver as well. I watched tha game cut up against Wisconsin last year so far and he looks like a better, smoother athlete than you might think for a really good blocking TE.

I like this idea as well. Hockenson is a very good blocker and a pretty good/reliable receiver. Addresses pass catching and helps OL with one player.

BPA means different things to each team. I'm pretty certain that if you could really poll each team for their top 32 players, there would be 32 different lists. It isn't as simple as who are the best players in order. How a team evaluates the best player is up to them. I would imagine that a team's player rankings consider: current level of play, upside, how does a player fit what your team does, perceived work ethic, untapped potential, smarts, off-field concerns and many more things. For example, is Jonah Williams better than Jawaan Taylor? I think it depends on how a given team values pass blocking vs run blocking and whether they think Williams is "maxed out" while Taylor may have more upside.

The problem with the Spiller pick was more that he wasn't as good as they thought he was - not because they already had Lynch (whom they had grown very tired of). I see it more as a missed evaluation rather than a logical flaw. Every team misses on some picks - even high ones.

For those interested, someone posted this thread in the college football section. It has a link to a spreadsheet that contains many draft prospects with links to game cut-ups for many of the prospects. The links aren't just to Youtube highlights - most are every play from full games with emphasis on following the specific prospect. I think it is fun to watch these, but I caution those who haven't watched before- even very good players don't have an impact on a high percentage of plays in a full game. If you go to watch some of the WRs, you will see many plays where they are just running routes which may be decoys or secondary or tertiary options on plays. You will also see lots of plays of them blocking (or faking it).

What do you think of Metcalf? I'm not completely sold, but man does he have impressive tools. I think your follow on post is pretty spot on, I'd expect DL or CB in the first - I'd lean to DL only because I don't think they could pay Tre' White and another first round CB long term. I certainly respect the importance of CB, though. I haven't dug into the DL prospects deeply yet - who do you think the Bills might consider at 9?

I think this sells a number of contributors short. I know that there are some here that watch a lot of game tape and some also that have significant backgrounds in playing or coaching. I think they are doing much more than reading walterfootball.com. I don't put myself in the above category, but I do watch game tapes of some of the top prospects that are discussed here and I've long read many of the top draft publications including Ourlads, Draft Insiders, Optimum Scouting and I used to read GM Jr by Russ Lande (who has been a NFL scout) and ProFootball Weekly's publication when Joel Buschbaum was doing the scouting. I appreciate reading the opinions of the folks on here that are really keeping on top of the prospects and watching for themselves.

I was watching some game tapes of Mississippi WR DK Metcalf and then WR AJ Brown. For sure, Metcalf has more than you could ask for physical tools, but top 10 is too rich for me from what I’ve seen so far. I really liked AJ Brown - he is big at 6’1 225 strong pounds. I thought that Brown was a smooth route runner who seemed to be very competitive and clutch. He definitely seemed to make more plays than Metcalf. I don’t know how high you’d need to take Brown, but if he makes it out of the first, I would be calling to see what it would take to move up to the top of the 2nd. As I was watching games of Metcalf and Brown, WR Demarcus Lodge kept catching my eye. He has some quicks and speed. He showed enough for some consideration.

I watched Butler against West Virginia and Iowa and I see a very big guy who is a willing and good blocker, but I don’t see him getting open very often. Granted, WV and Iowa outclass the whole Iowa State team, but what am I missing? i went back and watched vs Oklahoma and he made some big plays in that game. Still, I don’t see him getting open very often. Most plays that I saw him make were contested plays where he was covered, but won anyway.

Disclaimer: I claim no expertise as a scout, but I’ve been watching football for 50 years and I am an avid draft fan. I watched some some game tapes of Iowa TE Noah Fant and I don’t think that I see a first round prospect there. He was consistently one of the last players moving at the snap - in one instance he was so late moving that it caused an INT. We know that he isn’t much of a blocker and , in the games that I watched, he didn’t show a lot of effort and polish in his routes. He is definitely an outstanding athlete, but I didn’t see it translate to being open and making many plays. For those that watch much more than a few games, what do you see and why is he considered to be a potential first round pick?

Does anyone know if Lonnie Johnson Jr is the son of former Bills TE Lonnie Johnson?

I'm not seeing two-down or rotational player. I think he is a guy that could be a disruptive 3 down player who could play inside or outside (preferably inside)

Agreed. I was just reacting to how well Foles was playing on the road against a favored team. He certainly was exceeding my expectations.

In the two seasons that followed that 27-2 TD to INT season, he had a 20-20 TD to INT ratio. Which is he, or is he somewhere in between?

I still can’t see Foles as a long-term top-end starting QB, yet he seems to be reproducing last year now. What magic does he have?

Well thought out. Yet you are suggesting throwing a lot of money around on FAs, none of whom look to be difference makers. I’m not saying that the FAs you suggest are bad players, but over paying for middling players is how to end up back in cap problems after digging out.

I might be willing to trade up to a 5th round pick for a great OL coach. Thoughts?

Was it only the offensive schemes or could it have been equally the significant added talent around him and him having learned from his rookie year? I think it all matters, including the scheme, the talent and the experience that Goff has gained. Having Todd Gurley in the backfield certainly helps a lot as well as the receivers he is working with.

We aren’t really disagreeing, but I don’t think that there should be hard rules- never draft position X high. I think you have to look at who is available at all positions in the top 10 in any draft and compare them on their merits, your needs, relative value of positions, depth in the draft at positions, etc. I’m not arguing that all positions are equally important, but for sure OLT is still a premium position (IMHO).

It is all a system of interdependent parts. By that I don’t mean “scheme” necessarily. A good OL gives receivers a bit more time to get open and the QB enough room and time to read the defense and use proper mechanics when throwing. A good OL also can allow for run plays to put you in good down and distance situations. How many offensive drives were the Bills in 2nd and 8+ yards? You are way behind the 8 ball in those situations. Good receivers help help the OL and QB look good by getting open quickly. This puts less pressure on the OL and allows the QB to make quick decisions and throw the ball before pressure gets near him. Good receivers allow more easy routine plays by getting separation, making the routine catches and, occasionally making the great catch. Further, a good OL and good receivers present a threat to the defense that makes getting the run game going much easier. The 2018 Bills offense was frequently in bad down and distance situations, had receivers who could not get open regularly and often didn’t make the routine catches, let alone the occasional special play. The OL and receivers are both important - so is the run game. Watching the Patriots, it is rarely that they dominate because they have such superior talent on the OL, in the receiving group or at RB - it is their balance and ability to be good, not necessarily great, at everything that constantly keeps defenses off balance.

I understand your point and agree, but second round picks are still high picks.

He certainly looks like a NFL OT. He is huge and looks to be pretty athletic for his size.

Lamar Jackson has been brutal today, but still too early to give up on him completely. Many on this board are waaaay too quick to trash young players. To be clear, I was not one convinced that he could succeed in the NFL, and I don’t think he is the answer at QB for Baltimore, but I don’t think he should be run out of town this early. I *would* consider drafting another QB or signing a FA.

I agree, but I can’t see the logic in using a top 10 pick on a CB when the Bills already have Tre White. I know White has two? years left on his rookie deal and they could get another top CB on a rookie deal for 4 years, but you know that they could not keep both long-term. The Bills have done this previously when they had Antoine Winfield and then drafted Nate Clements. For sure Clements was good, but ultimately they let Winfield go to FA and he played very well for several more years and then the Bills lost Clements in FA as well. I don’t want them to reach, but there are only a few premium positions that a team can budget for - QB, DE, LT, maybe 1 WR, a lockdown CB. I am not saying that other positions are not important, but ideally find a top prospect at a position that, if he pans out, you can justify paying after his rookie deal.