BADOLBILZ

I liked the Josh Allen pick, said so at the time and even tried to talk some people off the ledge after the selection and have always been a big "build around" Allen guy. It's not anything I ever had to come around to. I am a ceiling-play guy when it comes to premium positions in general. But even if I had questioned the Josh Allen pick like yourself IIRC.......by 2020 it was clear to anyone with eyes that he was great. Is it different if someone like Gunner Bill says it? No. He hated the pick like you. It has no bearing on anyone wanting to not waste a season of his prime NOW.

1) For Beane, 100% of the receiving target projections have failed. It's not a coin flip, it's UNLIKELY that guys picked where Knox, Davis and Shakir were selected will turn into stud, high volume targets. That's what a lot of Bills fans don't seem to understand. 2) The reason to not make Shakir WR1 or WR2 is because of what I just said above. Starting out the season as WR3 or competing for WR3 is a "legitimate shot at hitting". It's a huge risk with one of Josh Allen's prime seasons to have him at the top of the target chain. And as much as I like Kincaid, his success came in part at the expense of success they had with Knox in seasons prior. Knox had higher passer rating when thrown to in both 2021 and 2022 than Kincaid did in 2023. Kincaid wasn't a revelation. Their passer rating when throwing to TE's dropped last year. Which is my point about Kincaid looking like a failed 1st round pick if he can't be A LOT better in 2024. 3) Coleman was 33rd overall and 8th WR off the board. Other than @HappyDays I can't recall anyone else wanting him with the Bills first pick. To me, he looks like a project. I hope I'm wrong but the guys that put up big rookie seasons tend to be guys with physical tools that allow them to get open immediately in the NFL. Coleman never even had an 800 yard season in college, he didn't get open consistently and his contested catch numbers were actually quite bad last year. I used Davante Adams as a ceiling comp, so I like his overall talent, but Adams just stunk it up his first two seasons in the NFL and didn't become a superstar until year 5. That despite also having second round pedigree along with massive college production and having a HOF QB throwing him the ball in the pro's.

That plan to give a larger role didn't work for Robert Foster in 2019, did it? It was supposed to be Foster and Brown on the outsides and Beasley as the slot. Foster fell flat on his face and they ended up needing to trade for Diggs the next offseason. Then it didn't work with Gabriel Davis or Dawson Knox in 2022. Both failed to live up to promise and that lead to the Bills needing to use their first selection on Kincaid in 2023 and then Coleman in 2024. But all 3 of Foster, Davis and Knox had incredibly efficient seasons in limited roles that made it seem like they were locks to become stars with more usage. Just like Khalil Shakir last year. I tend to buy Kincaid improving because he has special traits and no real glaring weakness like Shakir's lack of arm length. But also his numbers weren't very good. 9.2 yards per reception is pathetic for anyone not lined up at RB. If he repeated those the term "bust" would start getting tossed around.

Yeah I wouldn't be opposed to trading a 4th round pick for a guy and having him immediately put up 1493 yards and 23 TD receptions in his first year with the team and spark the offense to the all time points scored in a season record.

That's the thing about a straw man..........you made a claim nobody else was refuting and presented it as relevant. As for needing a top 5 TE........except very recently you have the 2021 season SB Rams/Bengals where NEITHER team featured a big name TE. I think your "top 5 TE" argument is a lot like the old belief that you needed a pocket passer to win a SB.......in that it was only an argument because the best QB's at the time were pocket passers. Gronk and Kelce have been attached to GOAT candidates Brady and Mahomes. And it's also an understatement to call them "top 5". They've never not been top 3 when playing and usually 1-2. Their teams have represented their conference 9 times in the last 10 SB's(8 times AFC and 1 time NFC). But Brady didn't need a great TE to win SB's. Four of the 7 he won in his career were without Gronk on the field(including the NE win over Atlanta). You can't separate the player from the position in that argument. Take Gronk and Kelce out of the equation and it's not clear that a stud TE is all that necessary. On the other hand, the proof positive about needing two very good receiving targets is that the names change very often..........but the teams that reach SB's nowadays always have them. Sometimes one of them is a TE. Sometimes not.

Well......about that...... Diggs isn't going to the HOF......not with the numbers needed as an accumulator nowadays. And the recent Bills teams will be as forgotten as the Marty Chargers or Marvin Lewis Bengals if they don't somehow win a SB soon. So ultimately Diggs will probably be remembered most for making one of the greatest plays in postseason history.

Graham? Hell no. As for Aiyuk........It takes more than 2-3 wins to reach a SB. It would be nice to have a WR corps full of guys whose game translates to both regular and post seasons.........but to get good playoff positioning you still want guys who win you a lot of regular season games. Case in point with Diggs. Last year in the Miami @ Buffalo game the Dolphins were clutching and grabbing Diggs early and got flagged. So they had to give him space and he WENT OFF. That's how the regular season works. Guys who get open are more valuable then. You really need to win A LOT of games to get into the tournament. And agree.........what the Niners were is just another example of how important receiving talent is to getting to a SB.

1) Basically, you and @Chaos have created a couple straw man arguments. Weaker versions of the factually supported argument about needing two very good WR targets to reach a SB. Where did anyone say the Bills needed a "Randy Moss"? Nobody said that. Where did anyone say that a "top 5" receiver was needed to reach a SB? Who said that, specifically? Anyone? Let alone it being some broad discussion point. You two created those false narratives so you could dispel them. 2) And yes, if you have two of the top 32 yardage producing WR in the league, you are doing damn good. Usually 4-5 teams have that every year and they are teams like KC, SF, Philly who have been reaching SB's. The Bills had two in the top 32 in 2020. That was the closest they've come to a SB.

Yeah Jimmy Graham wasn't a force on any SB team that I am aware of. If anything he is a cautionary tale about trying to make a finesse TE like he or Kincaid into your WR1 option. Seattle tried that and teams just but a boundary CB on him and shut him down. That exposure basically ended his career as an elite TE. The OP @Chaos has a point about big, physical receiving targets in the playoffs. I've said it many times.........when the holding and PI flags get tucked deep in officials pockets in the playoffs........that's when you need physical targets. That's why Kelce is better in the postseason than the regular season. He is very physical. But it doesn't have to be a TE. DK Metcalf is a big, physical boundary receiver and he's been great in the playoffs. 112.8 yards per game game 451 yards 17.3 y/r 5 TD's. Davante Adams is another who has been better in the playoffs than the regular season. In 2019 and 2020 the Bills went all-in on the idea of getting WR who get separation and once they got invested in Diggs that kinda' became what their offense was. And it complicated things in the playoffs where defense's can clutch and grab all day without a flag. They didn't go in enough on the physicality aspect.

Actually what the statistics tell us over the past decade plus is that you need TWO top receiving targets to even reach a SB. I know you don't follow the rest of the league closely but Brandon Aiyuk had 1300+ yards on 18 yards per catch last year. He was an All Pro and one of THE BEST and he wasn't sitting on the couch on SB Sunday. Neither was Deebo Samuel.......a recent All Pro who put up nearly 60 yards per game receiving as the THIRD most targeted receiver in the SF offense behind Aiyuk and Kittle and just ahead of McCaffrey. Rashee Rice and Kelce both finished top 32 in receiving yards in the NFL. Just as Juju and Kelce had the year before. These teams all have an abundance of top receiving targets.

Don't forget Gabe in 2020 was more effective than Gabe 2023. He was part of the reason they had a top 3 WR corps in the NFL that year. And Dawson Knox 2020 was way more effective than the abysmal 2023 version. Allen's passer rating when targeting the true TE was much better in 2020. The only position they were stronger at anywhere on offense in 2023 was starting RB.........which is the least important to be strong at "individually". And yes the 2023 defense was more talented on the DL. But they were OLD at too many positions overall and it showed as the season went on. The back 7 was just not near the same quality as the 2020 team because of age. Guys like Hyde, Poyer and White were nearly at an all pro level in 2020. Even AJ Klein was outstanding when he filled in for Milano/Edmunds in 2020. That was arguably the best back 7 in football in 2020. All those mentioned were shells of their former selves last year. Bernard was an upgrade on Edmunds but that's about the only one in the back 7 who was better. Back in 2020 they were kinda' known as a young, durable unit. That matters. It's why they bounced back so well and played consistently from week to week and ran off a 13-3 record(and one of the 3 losses was the Hail Murray).

They aren't going to roster 12 defensive backs on the 53. They have 10 now that all project to play roles on defense and/or special teams. And there will always be a version of Josh Norman kicking around on a practice squad somewhere to be an emergency boundary CB. They don't lack depth. Look at every other teams depth chart. They all have an Ingram or Hamlin type in their top 10. What the Bills lack are high end starters at safety. If they had prime Poyer and Hyde I doubt you'd be worried about Hamilin and Cam Lewis as the reserves. But the reality is that Edwards and Rapp were both starting safeties on SB winning teams in the very recent past. It's likely that they are "good enough".

Yeah but not having answers at receiver were a big factor as well. He threw 6 interceptions toward Gabe Davis on 81 targets. That's brutal. Sometimes bad decisions and bad options are the same thing. As the weapons around him have declined the need for him to make better decisions and have more command of his throws has increased. I'm not sure it's in him to be that point guard. As I've said, the biggest play of the season was that second and 9 incompletion to Shakir and he stared him down the whole way. Tom Brady wins ZERO SB's with Allen's eyes and touch. And I am not holding my breath for Allen to ever go all-in on being the best he can be like a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. The thing those guys and Brady have in common is that they weren't incredibly gifted athletes. They had to play at a remarkably efficient level to be good..........so taking it to the next level was a road they were already on anyway. Not the case with JA17.

Again.......here is your quote: "Last year was by far the best talent around Allen since being a Bill. And its honestly not close." In reality the 2020 weapons included 2 All Pro's and IN FACT a better OL. The only upgrade in the starting 11 that they had at any position in 2023 was James Cook at RB........the least important individual position. It's just complete revisionist nonsense on your part. Spencer Brown was solid last year. Daryl Williams was the best Bills OL in 2020 and could have easily been an All Pro RT for the second time in his career. Allen has never had more time to throw and it showed with easily his best season and highest MVP finish. Just imagine how good a more mature Josh Allen would be with those weapons and that kind of protection. Definitely a lot better than the 26 points per game offense in 2023 and probably better than the 31 point per game offense in 2020.

How these individual WR targets will perform are all interesting micro-takes but the question as a whole is can this Joe Brady offense be better with these players without having to use Josh Allen as a battering ram again. For all the hype about how well Shakir played down the stretch, Josh Allen was not that good passing the ball during that time. Probably his worst half season stretch since 2019, statistically.

You really should start a thread on this notion that the Bills weapons last year were the best since Josh Allen was a Bill. That would be entertaining.

Well you've posted about your perceived phenomenon of Bills fans wanting to see players fail..........so when you post a self-stroker I think it's fair to assume you do so because you want credit for not being one of those imaginary Bills fans that want to see Chase Claypool drop a game winning TD or Kaiir Elam give one up.

To me, it comes down to whether Elam has the ability to learn it all quickly enough to make it in the league. He can work on his footwork all he wants, he needs to recognize what opponents are trying to do before the play and on the fly so that he isn't clutching/grabbing and getting burned. Rasul Douglas BARELY made it before the league gave up on him. But he also had a lot of motivation to persevere until the light bulb came on because he never got a big first round pick contract.

Thanks for sharing. Because so many Bills fans want to see a #1 draft pick fail. Important to note that you aren't one of them.

The top 5 options that we are discussing.........they put up 232 yards per game receiving in 2020. The top 5 in 2023 put up 199. That's a massive difference in explosiveness. Your revisionist history is perplexing. The 2020 OL had two stud OT performers with near 80 pff grades. 4 of the 5 starters graded considerably higher than their 2023 counterparts. Only RG's Brian Winters and OCyrus Torrence graded near evenly(both the poorest). Again, you have this weird recency bias going on that defies logic/stats/facts. Everybody with promise and efficiency in lesser roles in 2020 have now proven that they sucked. So they weren't good. But everyone who showed some promise in limited roles or as rookie starters in 2023 proved to you that they are going to be great. Doesn't work that way.

What kind of fact-free, unsupported response was that? Here is what you literally said that I responded to: "Last year was by far the best talent around Allen since being a Bill." That 2020 group was arguably the #1 WR corps in the NFL. Diggs was the best outside WR in the NFL that season.........he lead the NFL in catches and yards. Beasley was the best slot receiver in the NFL that season. I know you expect greatness from Kincaid and Shakir...........but they weren't great last year...........and like I said, people thought Davis and Knox were going to be great when given more opportunity. You gotta' judge player's by what they've done.

At the bottom are the WR/TE targets in order for the 2020 and 2023 seasons. Stefon Diggs was a first team All Pro in 2020. No comparison to his also-ran 2023 self. That's an L for 2023. Shakir was tremendous in limited exposure(like Davis 2020 or Knox 2021). But Beasley had twice as many catches and first downs(53 to 26). I don't think Beasley's second team All Pro that year was deserved like Diggs but he was incredibly productive. Another L for 2023. John Brown missed over half the 2020 snaps of the season injured.........but when he was healthy and Davis was option 4 THAT was absolutely the best group of weapons they've had because he was a proven 1,000 yard talent and playing like it. Davis was brutal in 2023. Another L for 2023. The last two sets are more complicated but still wins for 2020. Something nobody wants to acknowledge is that the gains from Kincaid in 2023 came largely from what was lost from Dawson Knox. Their passer rating when targeting the TE dropped substantially in 2023 versus 2021/2022. WR1 Diggs 2020 127 catches 1535 yards for 115.4 passer rating Diggs 2023 107 for 1183 for 94.9 Slot Beasley 2020 82 for 967 for 108.3 Shakir 2023 39 for 611 for 133.6 WR2 Brown 2020 33 for 458 for 110.9 Davis 2023 45 for 746 for 84.7 next option Davis 2020 35 for 599 for 100.1 Kincaid 2023 73 for 673 for 95.7 True TE Knox 2020 28 for 388 for 94.4 Knox 2021 49 for 587 for 127.8 Knox 2022 48 for 517 for 108.3 Knox 2023 22 for 186 for 69.9 4 players with passer ratings over 100 in the 2020 WR/TE group........versus just 1 in the 2023. Which is why Josh Allen had a 107.2 passer rating in 2020 and just 92.2 in 2023. I know that you want to focus on James Cook but RB production doesn't move the needle offensively. Sorry, but it's true. Every time you give the ball to a RB it typically decreases your yards per play as a team. That was no different in 2023 where James Cook averaged 5.6 yards per touch and the Bills averaged 5.7 as a team and a disappointing 26.5 points per game. The 2020 team averaged 6.1 yards per play and averaged 31+ points per game.

1. McBeane have pounded home the idea of not wanting Josh running the ball nearly as much as the prior season going into each season since 2020. It basically cost Ken Dorsey his job. So tell them it's "old". They know it's important they just don't want to commit to "building around the QB" as the #1 priority of their organization. When it obviously should be. And unfortunately, nobody has run the ball like JA17 has at the QB position and had a long career. Add that to the fact that he holds the ball longer than anyone(mainly because his targets suck) and you have a recipe for a premature end to a career. Those increasingly common shoulder/elbow sprains/tears gradually turn into chronic pain and weakness. It's insane to have a player with this much arm talent and not do whatever is necessary to get back to that 2020 level of talent around him where he existed much more in the pocket. That guy was going to play QB at a high level until he was 40. 3. Instead of asking Josh Allen to be Tom Brady("less careless").........give him more weapons. This offense should be historic with his arm talent.

I don't think anyone is.........that's just people lowering the bar from great to good to justify the organization's decisions. But there is a lot of buy-in to this notion that Allen is cut out to be Tom Brady 2.0.........the "point guard". Going thru his reads quickly/decisively.....choosing just the right option.....getting them the ball with pin point accuracy in tight coverage. When the reality is that is NOT his game. The season came down to Allen staring down slot receiver Khalil Shakir on 2nd and 9 and dirting a pass that needed to go almost 35 yards past the LOS to be a completion..........while Diggs ran free underneath for what would have at worst set up a short 3rd down. Tom Brady wins exactly ZERO SB's with Josh Allen's eye's and touch. JA is what he is.........and that is GREAT........if they'd just understand that they have a big play QB not an elite game manager. Since 2021 they've put less and less WR talent around Allen........setting him up for failure.

Hey, you thought Gabe Davis was going to be outstanding too and mocked the need for the Bills to upgrade on him. Davis left to a chorus of good riddance. You just don't understand context. The key aspect of their improvement under Brady was reckless abandon for Josh Allen. They ran him over 9 times per game under Brady and were basically playing desperation must-win playoff football for 7 weeks prior to the playoffs even starting. None of what Shakir, Kincaid and Cook did under Brady can be expected to project without assuming Josh Allen rushes for 19-20 rushing TD's on 150-160 carries. Because that is the pace it took just to keep the chains moving with that pop-gun cast of weapons. And that's not adding in the 20 carries and 3 rush TD Allen needed to produce in the 2 playoff games. The offense was entirely dependent on unsustainable usage of Josh Allen. And as poorly as Diggs played in that 7 game stretch, his 43 yards per game projects to 741 yards.........which is more than Curtis Samuel or anyone they have on the roster put up last season. But you don't see the fuss. 😂 They CLEARLY needed to get better around Allen.........and have instead leaned into the unsustainable by not adding quality and gambling on a bunch of vets coming off down-to-downright-awful seasons and a project rookie WR who never even put up 800 yards in college season.