BADOLBILZ

If the Bills were to use Coleman as a big slot like KC did with Rashee Rice then I could see that. But that doesn't appear to be their plan. Beane said Coleman will be used outside (X) which is the much more difficult path. You mentioned Cobb......the Packers weren't going to give Adams those easy-button routes because those belonged to Cobb. So they had to patiently wait for Adams to round into form as a technician outside. What I do expect......if the Bills WR corps remains as currently constituted........is more condensed formations to help Coleman get open easier.

I would expect Samuel to be outside at the expense of Coleman's playing time in that scenario. For Samuel be top 3 in snaps played for WR in a hypothetical that would include Metcalf and Shakir. The time is now for Curtis Samuel. He's in his prime and knows the offense and has had success in it.

Yeah I have been advocating for WR's whose game translates better to the playoffs but if Coleman's career with elite Josh Allen at QB starts out like Davante Adams' career with elite Aaron Rodgers at QB.......where he averages just under 3 catches and 30 yards per game for this first couple seasons after being a second round pick himself............then someone else will have to be producing to GET them to the playoffs. When I say "raw" I mean I am not sure he is poised to be very effective early in his career.

Over-emphasized is how I would put it. The Bills have created this scenario where the guy is basically REPLACING Diggs in the eyes of fans and media this year. Now if they acquire a WR1 after June 1 I think Coleman then becomes a standard day 2 draft pick with lot's of room to breathe/develop. Which he needs because he is raw, IMO. Hard for fans to replace something as important to them as Diggs with nothing though.

I agree with them needing a top WR to headline the group. But I think the perfect fit for whomever is DK Metcalf. He's not the all levels, route-diverse threat that guys like Aiyuk and Jefferson are........but he's a great fit with Josh Allen's game and should be less expensive to acquire AND to retain, IMO. For instance, Jefferson is trending toward a $37M aav based on the deal that the last comparable talent at WR got (Hill). I think a guy like DK stays in the $20M's should you extend him and what he does expands the field for everyone else on the offense and his skillset is a bit more weather-proof and as I've mentioned before has proven effective in the playoffs. Having Metcalf as the lead WR outside would allow the Bills some time to develop Keon Coleman and not force targets to him. I like the Davante Adams comps for Coleman.........but it took Adams several years to really figure out how to translate his athleticism-without-speed game to the field. The way this WR corps is set-up now the pressure is going to be on Coleman to produce early and my confidence in him being able to do that is low.

Hey, the way the Bills have had to chase Mahomes around the field........only to almost never sack him(as the Chiefs almost never sack Allen either)........the 20 yard split might be more relevant than the 10 yarder in those matchups.

Either way I just hope that whoever is out there produces in a big way. I'd like to see them back to averaging 5.4 yards per carry and leading the AFC in rushing efficiency. Not sure they've done enough in the passing game to open up that space but I think they have plenty of talent in the backfield. My guess would be that if Cook and Davis are healthy they'd reserve all the carries for them. Especially with Davis being a physical, between the tackles runner they may think they need to get him all of the carries Cook doesn't get to try to get him in the flow of the game. I like Ty Johnson though.......he seems well suited to the task of special teams plus an occasional few touches on offense.

You do realize Ty Johnson only rushed a total of 30 times for 130 yards on the season? Total. It's not like he's some young diamond in the rough, it was the least productive season of his 5 year career and he was released by the Jets last summer. He's JAG. That's fine for a lightly used rotational RB but they didn't draft Ray Davis in the 4th round to be 3rd in the rotation to a street free agent type like Ty. They over-used the light-duty James Cook last year and he slowed noticeably down the stretch........so I suspect they are hoping to get 100+ carries from a workhorse back like Davis this year. *Maybe* Ty Johnson can do that but his career high is 63 carries back in 2019. Johnson is a journeyman 3rd RB and special teamer but as a veteran he is entitled to a higher base pay than a rookie like Gore so it's quite conceivable that they could cut Johnson. The possibility also includes cutting him before camp breaks and bringing him back after week 1 when his salary is no longer guaranteed and he can be paid week to week.......which would be much more palatable for a 3rd RB.

Yeah I don't mind having a guy like Johnson in the rotation because RB's are still an inflation-adjusted dime-a-dozen but Davis is likely to move into the RB2 role pretty quickly. Johnson had very little use last year and still ended up injured. Hasn't proven he can give you much work over the years. It's not out of the question that Gore or someone else makes the roster ahead of Johnson, even.

Too soon.

Stilhiir Elam?

You didn't learn anything about their work ethic from a bunch of interviews after they were first drafted. Obviously. You just "feel" like you did.

I really don't know about 2 years down the road but I expect that they won't immediately be able to put him out wide at X like Beane suggested and have him find success. They are going to have to modify his role. That's what the Chiefs did with Rashee Rice, for instance. I think they will need to used him in the slot or in a lot of condensed formations to create space for him and then also put him in motion a lot. Which is the kind of scheming you use for your lower pedigree and/or physically limited players........not first rounders or 33rd overall picks. That will get old fast if he doesn't develop. I liked the physical comp of Davante Adams to Coleman..........both big, physical guys with excellent body control, hands and leaping ability. But whether Coleman has the drive, determination and intelligence to refine his game like that is another story. Few want to work that hard and appearing gregarious at first blush doesn't tell me anything about whether he has that. And, fwiw, it took Davante Adams until year 3 to become a starter and year 4 to hit 1,000 yards for the first time. Despite having the best QB in his conference all that time. Not sure how well it will go over if it takes until his walk year for him to become a stud.

It really doesn't tell you anything. That's the point. Actions speak louder than words. Coleman's actions show a player who doesn't separate at the college level and has shown little nuance/refinement to his game. Which is why his numbers are so modest at the NCAA level. He's really raw and it's not like he has 4.3 speed to fall back on if he doesn't refine his game or the Bills don't make it an emphasis to FIND ways to get him open at the expense of giving those opportunities to other, less talented players who also need that to succeed. Again, case-in-point Kaiir Elam. He came off as a highly studious, focused, hard working kid with a great attitude. And his physical traits and pedigree were less in question than Coleman's are. Hasn't worked out so far. Hopefully it will this season......but coming off like a "great kid" at introduction means nothing. Stephon Gilmore came off quite differently to Bills fans and has had a pretty brilliant career.

Yeah, which is part of the reason your analogy doesn't work. Less than half of 1st rounders even get their option picked up and the amount that become good starters for any significant amount of time is in the 30 percents. The further you get into the draft WHO you pick is even more important because the success rate drops steadily.

Yeah a lot of people wanted to trade into the top 10 for one of those. The choice the Bills had was neither of those. In that range you are talking about probably a 30% hit rate(becoming a good starting WR) so you'd hope they'd have some conviction on one or the other.

The question I have is why were the Bills good with "either" of Legette or Coleman(as has often been said)? I understand the tiers concept but you'd figure they'd have more of a conviction on one than the other.

Yeah, impressive production in limited exposure then followed by much less efficiency when given an elevated role is all too common. In 1986 Chris Burkett had unreal production in limited exposure. He qualified for and lead the entire NFL in yards per catch with 23.........which is an insane number and put up more yards than Shakir did last year in the process. Burkett was considered a pretty safe bet to be a stud WR for the foreseeable future......but defense's paid him more attention in 1987 and that all changed. We also remember the crazy partial season Robert Foster put up in 2018. People who think that a player who has a good passer rating when targeted over a limited period is likely to repeat that in a much expanded role are pretty oblivious, IMO.

So where do you get your premium position difference makers if you don't draft them early? They don't hit free agency. They get their option picked up and/or they then get franchise tagged. If Josh Allen wanted to leave Buffalo he would have had to wait 7 years(option + 2 tags) or getting in a career-disrupting p!ssing match with the team most likely. So extending him after year 3 was pretty easy. Applies to stud pass rushers, LT's and WR's all the same. Excellent guards and safeties do hit free agency every year though. In fact, even an All Pro guards and centers sometimes hit free agency. But always lot's of good one's do. And 29 starting safeties were free agents this year. I think you've been paralyzed by over-analysis.

Nice 5-2 win to give Yanks a 3 game sweep of a decent Tigers team. Seems like Judge may be warming up finally. Despite not having Gerrit Cole in the rotation the Yanks lead MLB with 23 games pitched where they've held opponents to 3 runs or less. Yankees are also second in MLB in games of scoring 5 runs or more despite very disappointing starts for most of the hitters in lineup. And being shut out a shocking 5 times already. And being on pace for an MLB record amount of hit into double plays and being just woeful on the bases so far. In general, I've found the quality of offense in MLB to continue to be very disappointing this season. The league seems to be being dominated by a bunch of no-name relievers and I don't see how that's a good thing. It's past time to get an automated strike zone. We've seen that the automated zone has forced pitchers to throw strikes when used in MiLB and significantly raised ERA's.

Da' Make-Believes........pretenders again.

Eric Moulds. He didn't start out as well as Claypool did........but he spent his first couple seasons slapping women around, dodging child support claims and just being a general unfocused idiot until he decided to put his foot in the ground and make himself into something as a professional.

Actually the point is that a prospect being likable and saying the right things at their introduction tells you nothing about how he will perform.

Yeah..........people always figure that the "last chance" stuff must be a motivator. But really? Nah. I think more often than not a player who strings together a lot of thoroughly disinterested play like Claypool has is just trying to squeeze out one more million dollar pay day......exert himself as little as possible while doing it........while also accruing yet another year in the pension benefit calculation.