BADOLBILZ

The problem with what they have now will be even getting TO the playoffs with this bottom 1/3 of the league WR group. All 4 vets they added are guys coming off down seasons by their standards. For guys like MVS, Claypool and Hollins those downs are quite significant from the seasons prior. But, yeah. In the postseason MVS has had success and hasn't dropped passes. I just don't think that past is very relevant now because he looks to have washed ashore last season.

Yeah and then significantly more than the next longest target after that. The OBVIOUS POINT being that it is NOT something Khalil Shakir has done with any degree of regularity whatsoever. Is that not clear to you?

Another way to look at it is that they will have added drain-circling vets like Hollins and MVS to an already unimpressive cast of never-been's.

He is what Kolby Listenbee could have been if not for the sports hernia's. Adding him would leave them one Keon Coleman hammy strain away from meaningful games with elite ball-dropper MVS on one side and DK Decaf Shorter on the other side. What could go wrong?

Yeah we know, it mighta' coulda' been a temporary go-ahead TD if everything woulda' went right on the play. The problem was that wasn't what had been working all game so it's no surprise it didn't work then. It would have been one of the longest air yards completions of the season to Shakir. A high degree of difficulty throw they had not completed to him that season. You shouldn't go with that there......let alone actually TRY to give Mahomes the ball back to play 4 down football with almost 2 minutes left. The Chiefs had been going thru the Bills defense at a sh!t-thru-goose pace all game. The game was only in reach because of a the Mecole Hardman fumble out of the end zone as the Chiefs were about to pull away earlier that quarter. The Bills path to escaping the game with a win was to score a TD with as little time left as possible. Clock control is a strategy that overmatched teams have been using to orchestrate upsets forever. And make no mistake, the Bills were incredibly overmatched defensively and on special teams. And offensively they couldn't execute big play to save their lives that day. With some luck they had survived on the narrow path of long drives made up of small plays to keep the score close to that point.........but then just got stupid at the 2 minute mark.

Whatever happened to the good ol' "commissioner's exempt list"? Put him on that indefinitely and let the Chiefs pay him to not play while his legal situations play out and then worry about a suspension. These situations aren't likely to be resolved by September/October so not sure why the league would want him back on the field at that point.

Yeah I've wondered if Terry Pegula will tighten the purse strings........but I don't expect that really. I'm not sure he's that keenly involved to start pulling a Ralph yet. Ralph grew up before the US financial system was thoroughly rigged and I think he still always felt like his net worth could go south in a hurry if he didn't try to pinch pennies. If Beane is a top GM he will understand that you can't let the momentum of money steer you. By that, I mean, you can't expect to win if you are trying to drastically re-set your cap situation. You have to be ready for opportunity when it knocks. Not being ready for the prosperity that fate is presenting is how they missed on Patrick Mahomes in 2017. They were fortunate that the Allen pick bailed them out. There hasn't been a Mahomes or Allen enter the league SINCE Mahomes and Allen. Joe Burrow is the closest but he's not been durable enough to qualify. I want to believe that Beane knows that you gotta' make that hay when the sun shines. No guarantee that it's going to be a favorable talent market when you feel you have have extensively re-set your cap.

Yeah, like I said, I feel that way too. They are just making the wrong decision at WR again, IMO. Same as they have the previous couple offseasons when they stupidly went all-in on Gabe Davis opposite their All Pro Diggs and did little else. Now they are expecting to replace Diggs and Davis with Coleman and Samuel(and a cast of cast-offs). That is an even greater leap of faith than those prior offseasons. It's not like the MLB position in that regard.......that was the first time they'd risked leaving themselves short at the position. This is them tripling down on not doing enough at WR. I was 100% behind their plan at MLB last year. Everybody they had used in place of Edmunds over the years had produced in limited roles. Pedestrian-Preston Brown lead the NFL in tackles under McDermott in 2017. There was AMPLE reason to trust in that decision. Not so much at WR. Skepticism should be the order of the day there.

Yeah the problem with that prediction is that it varies from high WR2 production into possible All Pro consideration. It's too broad to convey the confidence level. When you get there it's kinda' like Parcell's old adage about it being MUCH easier to get to 9-10 wins than to the 11-13 win level. When people were assuming that Gabe was going to be able to assume all of the WR2 snaps going into 2022 my take was that he needed to produce over 1100 yards to replace the impact of having him in a 1-2 combo with Sanders. Of course, those numbers never came to pass with the elevated role.

Yeah he's adept at choosing the right truth for the moment. It's a strength of his. I mean, what was to gain from saying "expect a big splash in free agency"? If a deal comes together, then you look like you accomplished something. If it doesn't, the perception is you've failed. Same with addressing the top of the WR depth chart. Who benefits from saying you are concerned about it in May? In the free agency era the Bills have traditionally had GM's that were either unsophisticated road scouts(Butler/Nix/Whaley) or stubborn hot-heads who would shoot from the hip with the media(Polian/Donahoe) or just clueless green-horns(Marv/Brandon). Beane isn't the best personnel man around by any stretch.....but he might be the best "executive" GM in the NFL. He is really good at bullsh!tting for profit and still seeming like a good guy to the people he deals with.

Yeah, I tend to agree that they are going to risk it and go into the season without a proven WR1 or WR2. That's just feels but it feels like they are willing to crash and burn on this one if necessary. But Beane lies about this kind of stuff ALL THE TIME. Because he knows that if he reverses course on this type of thing the fan base will be happy and not be upset that he was disingenuous. Setting expectations low and then hurdling those lowered bars is how he keeps his stock strong with the fans.

He needs to get on a cutting-edge juice program like Hansen was on with Victor Conte back in the BALCO days.

I'd take Hopkins. Probably cost a 4th. But if the Chiefs then subsequently landed DK Metcalf.......as they were reportedly attempting to do around the draft.........that would be discouraging.

I swear I read the framework of this post in late August of 2017 when the Bills acquired 6'3" Jordan Matthews to pair with 6'4" free agent signee Andre Holmes. Except, of course, those guys actually had experienced *some* success at the NFL level. Matthews had averaged almost 900 yards per season to that point of his young but soon-to-be-over career. Then they tripled down with Biscuits Benjamin at mid-season to make sure they were REALLY big, slow and awkward/clumsy.

DK Metcalf for sure, IMO. Just the right combination of skillset that matches up with a guy like Allen or Mahomes, likely with a more reasonable price tag to acquire and his contract doesn't need immediate re-work. Also, IMO, he figures to stay in the $20M's as an extension candidate. You can build a WR corps around him for the next few seasons. Gradually develop Coleman at the other outside spot.......and just fill the slot with the more readily available and inexpensive 6' fast/quick types like they have there now with Shakir. Hopefully Coleman develops into a Davante Adams by year 4 and then DK is 30 and you can move on.

Rousseau hasn't really broken out as a pass rusher yet but he is an underrated player, in general. The Bills badly need a guy opposite him to just run wild from the blindside and allow Rousseau to do what he does best........which is level up, locate the QB stepping up in the pocket and bring him down. His GPS for that is elite and that's what made him such a beast in college despite very little experience as a DL. Give him a late 2010's high pressure rate, low sack rate guy like Jerry Hughes flying around the edge and GR is a 10-15 sack guy. Bills haven't been able to do that except for that stretch with Von in 2022. Rousseau is so effective against the run on the strong side that he is a rare case where you might build the edge positions around him even though he needs to be paired with a bendy, fast get-off guy to really flourish.

Hollins is WR4. He will be active because of his ST ability.

Yes until 2nd and 9 after the 2 minute warning. A choice more perplexing than anything that transpired during 13 seconds.

I'm sure you felt I was just "confirming my negativity" when I said that the Sheffield and Harty signings were bound to fail and that they would play to their career averages and NOT be magically elevated by Josh Allen. That was a very unpopular opinion on TSW. Because it was rooted in reality at a time of great "imagination". And so it came to pass. They were not elevated. That's the way this works. The Bills don't have a WR1 and it's uncertain if they have a WR2 or starting quality X for that matter. They have a bottom third WR corps in the NFL. That's a lot of burden on Josh Allen, IMO. We saw some version of Brady's offense operate over a half of a season. We also saw that it required Josh Allen to run the ball almost 10x per game and tons of 10-12 play drives to succeed. I'm not really down for seeing Allen run the ball 150 times. I'd kinda' like him to be playing QB at a high level for a while.

Yeah as a kid I Ioved those old Edgar Allen Poe adaptations he did with Vincent Price.

Oh, as we get deeper into every offseason NFL fans get pretty imaginative. Remember when much of TSW were buying the "Trent Edwards can run the no huddle" kool-aid after Russ Brandon acquired TO to pair with Lee Evans? Nothing we'd seen on the field from Trentative should have suggested he was anywhere near capable of this.........but fans ate it up. Looked good in mini-camp. Turk Schonert was going to be the man with the plan at OC. That whole process of rationalization took an enormous suspension of disbelief and vast amounts of imagination. It wasn't reality. The further we get from watching real football the more fans forget what works and what doesn't. I like Brady but you need the Jimmy's and Joe's once defense's adjust to "tactics". Because they will. The Dolphins ran up 70 points in a game against the Broncos early last season but eventually their limitations got exposed. You gotta' have difference makers at key positions to survive and advance. Bills are lacking that at WR. They made up for that by running Allen almost 10x per game during the Brady stint as OC. That's not a good long term strategy, IMO.

1) Defensive lineman and receivers are the only players on the field who draw double teams. 4-5 of them run into a group of 6-7 opponents and try to make plays. It's the closes direct comparison on the other side of the ball and I used the Ted Washington example because of how disastrous trying to "win in aggregate" turned out to be. It obliterated their team's identity and set the drought in motion. If you want examples of "in aggregate" not working BEYOND the Chiefs example that's incredibly easy. Just look at the Jauron and Gailey era and first 2 years of McBeane WR corps'. Almost every year they went to camp with the toughest decision being which WR to cut to get down to 6 or 7. But if you don't have WR1 talents at the top of that chart it doesn't matter. And if you have a really good corps you obviously don't need 6 or 7 of them. 2) Starters can be complementary players. None of them has been an NFL WR1 nor projects to be. They don't draw doubles........they hope that someone else draws them and then that opens up the field for them. Hence......complementary. If they don't add a more accomplished WR between now and the opener this would be the first time in almost 40 years that the Bills haven't had a receiver on the roster who hadn't put up at least 900 yards in any NFL season. That year Chris Burkett was coming off a season where he lead the NFL with 23 yards per reception. It didn't scale up when defense's focused their attention on him the next season. That's the task Shakir faces now in an elevated role with Diggs gone. 3) Kelce is the greatest flex TE in NFL history. I like Kincaid but there is a lot of room between GOAT and where Kincaid is. And they are very different in that Kelce is a much more physical player but is also a remarkably skilled receiver. Kincaid's game is all finesse at this point. Would you say Keon Coleman is the next Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens? Probably not, right? But that's the kind of comp that comparing Kincaid to Kelce is just because of some broad similarities.

And being a 5th round pick, unburdened by expectations, he was able to learn on the job and eventually became a 1,000 yard receiver in the NFL for the first time in year 4.

"In aggregate" is literally just a re-phrasing of "with numbers". Teams that are matchup nightmares have players who can't be neutralized by a single defender. They require extra attention. Like Ted Washington serving as a one man run defense and creating one-on-one's for other Bills defenders. When they cut him, the aggregate were no match at all for opposing running games. Who do the Bills have in their WR corps that commands that extra attention? What they have right now are a bunch of career complementary WR along with a raw rookie in Coleman.