BADOLBILZ

I'm sure you felt I was just "confirming my negativity" when I said that the Sheffield and Harty signings were bound to fail and that they would play to their career averages and NOT be magically elevated by Josh Allen. That was a very unpopular opinion on TSW. Because it was rooted in reality at a time of great "imagination". And so it came to pass. They were not elevated. That's the way this works. The Bills don't have a WR1 and it's uncertain if they have a WR2 or starting quality X for that matter. They have a bottom third WR corps in the NFL. That's a lot of burden on Josh Allen, IMO. We saw some version of Brady's offense operate over a half of a season. We also saw that it required Josh Allen to run the ball almost 10x per game and tons of 10-12 play drives to succeed. I'm not really down for seeing Allen run the ball 150 times. I'd kinda' like him to be playing QB at a high level for a while.

Yeah as a kid I Ioved those old Edgar Allen Poe adaptations he did with Vincent Price.

Oh, as we get deeper into every offseason NFL fans get pretty imaginative. Remember when much of TSW were buying the "Trent Edwards can run the no huddle" kool-aid after Russ Brandon acquired TO to pair with Lee Evans? Nothing we'd seen on the field from Trentative should have suggested he was anywhere near capable of this.........but fans ate it up. Looked good in mini-camp. Turk Schonert was going to be the man with the plan at OC. That whole process of rationalization took an enormous suspension of disbelief and vast amounts of imagination. It wasn't reality. The further we get from watching real football the more fans forget what works and what doesn't. I like Brady but you need the Jimmy's and Joe's once defense's adjust to "tactics". Because they will. The Dolphins ran up 70 points in a game against the Broncos early last season but eventually their limitations got exposed. You gotta' have difference makers at key positions to survive and advance. Bills are lacking that at WR. They made up for that by running Allen almost 10x per game during the Brady stint as OC. That's not a good long term strategy, IMO.

1) Defensive lineman and receivers are the only players on the field who draw double teams. 4-5 of them run into a group of 6-7 opponents and try to make plays. It's the closes direct comparison on the other side of the ball and I used the Ted Washington example because of how disastrous trying to "win in aggregate" turned out to be. It obliterated their team's identity and set the drought in motion. If you want examples of "in aggregate" not working BEYOND the Chiefs example that's incredibly easy. Just look at the Jauron and Gailey era and first 2 years of McBeane WR corps'. Almost every year they went to camp with the toughest decision being which WR to cut to get down to 6 or 7. But if you don't have WR1 talents at the top of that chart it doesn't matter. And if you have a really good corps you obviously don't need 6 or 7 of them. 2) Starters can be complementary players. None of them has been an NFL WR1 nor projects to be. They don't draw doubles........they hope that someone else draws them and then that opens up the field for them. Hence......complementary. If they don't add a more accomplished WR between now and the opener this would be the first time in almost 40 years that the Bills haven't had a receiver on the roster who hadn't put up at least 900 yards in any NFL season. That year Chris Burkett was coming off a season where he lead the NFL with 23 yards per reception. It didn't scale up when defense's focused their attention on him the next season. That's the task Shakir faces now in an elevated role with Diggs gone. 3) Kelce is the greatest flex TE in NFL history. I like Kincaid but there is a lot of room between GOAT and where Kincaid is. And they are very different in that Kelce is a much more physical player but is also a remarkably skilled receiver. Kincaid's game is all finesse at this point. Would you say Keon Coleman is the next Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens? Probably not, right? But that's the kind of comp that comparing Kincaid to Kelce is just because of some broad similarities.

And being a 5th round pick, unburdened by expectations, he was able to learn on the job and eventually became a 1,000 yard receiver in the NFL for the first time in year 4.

"In aggregate" is literally just a re-phrasing of "with numbers". Teams that are matchup nightmares have players who can't be neutralized by a single defender. They require extra attention. Like Ted Washington serving as a one man run defense and creating one-on-one's for other Bills defenders. When they cut him, the aggregate were no match at all for opposing running games. Who do the Bills have in their WR corps that commands that extra attention? What they have right now are a bunch of career complementary WR along with a raw rookie in Coleman.

The problem with that argument is that it doesn't satisfy the perceived need to replace Diggs. You are complaining about the attention/scrutiny of Coleman but that's why. If there were a perceived better answer to Diggs they'd not be fixated on Coleman. And the reality is that it's not as cut and dried as you are perceiving it either. Why would that work? You don't replace difference makers with volume. It's a matchup league. Can you win IN SPITE of failing to replace production in the passing game? Yes. The Chiefs decided to ride or die with their investments in Rice/Toney/Moore in 2023 instead of adding a veteran like DeAndre Hopkins to their WR corps...........and their scoring output subsequently fell by a whopping 125 points from 2022 and Patrick Mahomes had by far his worst statistical season as a pro. But they eventually won the SB. So one can argue that it might not matter in terms of whether the team wins the SB or not.......but you are as likely to replace the output of a guy like Diggs with a receiving corps where nobody on it has ever even put up a 900 yard season in the NFL as Gregg Williams was likely to be able to "stop the run with numbers" after Donahoe jettisoned Ted Washington. Keon Coleman didn't even put up 900 yards in a season in college. We can discount Diggs production all we want because we didn't like his attitude........but it's not going to be easy to replace that.

If the Bills were to use Coleman as a big slot like KC did with Rashee Rice then I could see that. But that doesn't appear to be their plan. Beane said Coleman will be used outside (X) which is the much more difficult path. You mentioned Cobb......the Packers weren't going to give Adams those easy-button routes because those belonged to Cobb. So they had to patiently wait for Adams to round into form as a technician outside. What I do expect......if the Bills WR corps remains as currently constituted........is more condensed formations to help Coleman get open easier.

I would expect Samuel to be outside at the expense of Coleman's playing time in that scenario. For Samuel be top 3 in snaps played for WR in a hypothetical that would include Metcalf and Shakir. The time is now for Curtis Samuel. He's in his prime and knows the offense and has had success in it.

Yeah I have been advocating for WR's whose game translates better to the playoffs but if Coleman's career with elite Josh Allen at QB starts out like Davante Adams' career with elite Aaron Rodgers at QB.......where he averages just under 3 catches and 30 yards per game for this first couple seasons after being a second round pick himself............then someone else will have to be producing to GET them to the playoffs. When I say "raw" I mean I am not sure he is poised to be very effective early in his career.

Over-emphasized is how I would put it. The Bills have created this scenario where the guy is basically REPLACING Diggs in the eyes of fans and media this year. Now if they acquire a WR1 after June 1 I think Coleman then becomes a standard day 2 draft pick with lot's of room to breathe/develop. Which he needs because he is raw, IMO. Hard for fans to replace something as important to them as Diggs with nothing though.

I agree with them needing a top WR to headline the group. But I think the perfect fit for whomever is DK Metcalf. He's not the all levels, route-diverse threat that guys like Aiyuk and Jefferson are........but he's a great fit with Josh Allen's game and should be less expensive to acquire AND to retain, IMO. For instance, Jefferson is trending toward a $37M aav based on the deal that the last comparable talent at WR got (Hill). I think a guy like DK stays in the $20M's should you extend him and what he does expands the field for everyone else on the offense and his skillset is a bit more weather-proof and as I've mentioned before has proven effective in the playoffs. Having Metcalf as the lead WR outside would allow the Bills some time to develop Keon Coleman and not force targets to him. I like the Davante Adams comps for Coleman.........but it took Adams several years to really figure out how to translate his athleticism-without-speed game to the field. The way this WR corps is set-up now the pressure is going to be on Coleman to produce early and my confidence in him being able to do that is low.

Hey, the way the Bills have had to chase Mahomes around the field........only to almost never sack him(as the Chiefs almost never sack Allen either)........the 20 yard split might be more relevant than the 10 yarder in those matchups.

Either way I just hope that whoever is out there produces in a big way. I'd like to see them back to averaging 5.4 yards per carry and leading the AFC in rushing efficiency. Not sure they've done enough in the passing game to open up that space but I think they have plenty of talent in the backfield. My guess would be that if Cook and Davis are healthy they'd reserve all the carries for them. Especially with Davis being a physical, between the tackles runner they may think they need to get him all of the carries Cook doesn't get to try to get him in the flow of the game. I like Ty Johnson though.......he seems well suited to the task of special teams plus an occasional few touches on offense.

You do realize Ty Johnson only rushed a total of 30 times for 130 yards on the season? Total. It's not like he's some young diamond in the rough, it was the least productive season of his 5 year career and he was released by the Jets last summer. He's JAG. That's fine for a lightly used rotational RB but they didn't draft Ray Davis in the 4th round to be 3rd in the rotation to a street free agent type like Ty. They over-used the light-duty James Cook last year and he slowed noticeably down the stretch........so I suspect they are hoping to get 100+ carries from a workhorse back like Davis this year. *Maybe* Ty Johnson can do that but his career high is 63 carries back in 2019. Johnson is a journeyman 3rd RB and special teamer but as a veteran he is entitled to a higher base pay than a rookie like Gore so it's quite conceivable that they could cut Johnson. The possibility also includes cutting him before camp breaks and bringing him back after week 1 when his salary is no longer guaranteed and he can be paid week to week.......which would be much more palatable for a 3rd RB.

Yeah I don't mind having a guy like Johnson in the rotation because RB's are still an inflation-adjusted dime-a-dozen but Davis is likely to move into the RB2 role pretty quickly. Johnson had very little use last year and still ended up injured. Hasn't proven he can give you much work over the years. It's not out of the question that Gore or someone else makes the roster ahead of Johnson, even.

Too soon.

Stilhiir Elam?

You didn't learn anything about their work ethic from a bunch of interviews after they were first drafted. Obviously. You just "feel" like you did.

I really don't know about 2 years down the road but I expect that they won't immediately be able to put him out wide at X like Beane suggested and have him find success. They are going to have to modify his role. That's what the Chiefs did with Rashee Rice, for instance. I think they will need to used him in the slot or in a lot of condensed formations to create space for him and then also put him in motion a lot. Which is the kind of scheming you use for your lower pedigree and/or physically limited players........not first rounders or 33rd overall picks. That will get old fast if he doesn't develop. I liked the physical comp of Davante Adams to Coleman..........both big, physical guys with excellent body control, hands and leaping ability. But whether Coleman has the drive, determination and intelligence to refine his game like that is another story. Few want to work that hard and appearing gregarious at first blush doesn't tell me anything about whether he has that. And, fwiw, it took Davante Adams until year 3 to become a starter and year 4 to hit 1,000 yards for the first time. Despite having the best QB in his conference all that time. Not sure how well it will go over if it takes until his walk year for him to become a stud.

It really doesn't tell you anything. That's the point. Actions speak louder than words. Coleman's actions show a player who doesn't separate at the college level and has shown little nuance/refinement to his game. Which is why his numbers are so modest at the NCAA level. He's really raw and it's not like he has 4.3 speed to fall back on if he doesn't refine his game or the Bills don't make it an emphasis to FIND ways to get him open at the expense of giving those opportunities to other, less talented players who also need that to succeed. Again, case-in-point Kaiir Elam. He came off as a highly studious, focused, hard working kid with a great attitude. And his physical traits and pedigree were less in question than Coleman's are. Hasn't worked out so far. Hopefully it will this season......but coming off like a "great kid" at introduction means nothing. Stephon Gilmore came off quite differently to Bills fans and has had a pretty brilliant career.

Yeah, which is part of the reason your analogy doesn't work. Less than half of 1st rounders even get their option picked up and the amount that become good starters for any significant amount of time is in the 30 percents. The further you get into the draft WHO you pick is even more important because the success rate drops steadily.

Yeah a lot of people wanted to trade into the top 10 for one of those. The choice the Bills had was neither of those. In that range you are talking about probably a 30% hit rate(becoming a good starting WR) so you'd hope they'd have some conviction on one or the other.

The question I have is why were the Bills good with "either" of Legette or Coleman(as has often been said)? I understand the tiers concept but you'd figure they'd have more of a conviction on one than the other.