BADOLBILZ

Claypool's problems started 3 seasons ago not mid-way thru 2022. Thru 11 games in 2021 Claypool was averaging almost 70 yards receiving per game. He seemed like a lock to get 1,000+ yards despite missing 2 games to injury. Then he pulled that idiotic stunt in Minnesota..........made a fool of himself blaming a teammate for it afterward........and has been hot garbage ever since. Over his last 4 games of 2021 he averaged an anemic 27 yards per game and crashed way short of 1,000.........and then he was terrible in their the playoff loss where he caught 3 passes on 7 targets for 25 yards. The next season he was lousy in Pittsburgh before being traded.

To paraphrase Josh Allen's father: "Bloom where you are planted" For the Bills, that is on the right arm of Josh Allen. For perspective.......this is how the Chiefs did it. The Chiefs reached their first 3 AFC championship games(and 2 SB's) on the strength of what could be perceived as "over-investment" in surrounding Mahomes with talent. Those versions of the Chiefs defense were not so good. In fact, the 2018 D was arguably the worst in the NFL and they still took the AFCCG to OT and would have been the SB favorite had they reached it. Those Chiefs already had two 1,000 yard receiving targets in Hill and Kelce when they made Sammy Watkins the 4th highest paid WR in the NFL. Once they won a SB and dominated the AFC for 3 seasons the decisions they could make and still succeed were much different. Now they enter most playoff games with all the pressure on the opposition. And it shows. They walk off the bus with the lead because of the psychological advantage. Most of the changes they've made aren't because they are playing chess and everyone else is playing checkers........they are made because Chiefs ownership is just being thrifty and getting away with it. The Bills are still in the development stage the Chiefs were in 2018-2019. The closest they've been to a SB was 2020.........with their most talented offense and least talented defense of the past 4 years. And with all due respect to Joe Marino...........the Chiefs basically never sack Josh Allen either. It would be nice to take Mahomes down more and to me the reason that they don't is because their defense lacks the ability to adapt to their opponent as well as some others(including Spag's Chiefs). But the answer is pretty clear, IMO..........if you want to break thru and get to and win a SB the way to do it is by giving Allen everything he needs around him and then some.

Beane is still definitely much more executive than personnel man. I think that he's gotten better wrt personnel in general............but WR has always been his blindest spot. And then this offseason he is asking fans(and the rest of the team for that matter) to take a leap of faith on all these choices he's made that otherwise align perfectly with all the mistakes he's made. Why should anyone trust that he's not just repeating his mistakes? Don't get me wrong.........I like Samuel. I like Shakir. I think Kincaid can become a top flex TE. Coleman has a high ceiling. But to maximize their skills I think they need to be in the right roles. Samuel and Shakir should be WR3 or WR4..........not WR1 or WR2. Kincaid is being projected by many as the top target in the offense. But if he's getting CB1 or CB2 attention because the other WR aren't commanding it.........he could suffer the same fate as Jimmy Graham when he went to Seattle. I don't see Kincaid as Kelce. He's more of a big, basketball-transition possession WR than the physical force that Kelce is. And Coleman, IMO, is raw and lacks the speed/quickness to overcome his lack of polish in other areas. We saw a little of this back in 1996 when they drafted Eric Moulds. He wasn't quick/fast or polished. It took until year 3 for him to come into his own. Some of that was obviously his attitude because his talent relative to the rest of the WR in the league in 1996-1997 was greater than what Coleman has relative to his peers in the WR deep NFL of today. But I think his ceiling is in the Davante Adam's category and it took him a few years to develop the savvy to take advantage of his physicality, leaping ability, talented hands etc..

Like I said.......Beane is like 0-15 in cases where he's expected a player to elevate his game from limited to an expanded role OR when he took a flyer on WR's who at one time were once considered high pedigree or were once productive but weren't productive the season prior. And leaning into his judgement on those things that he's always been wrong about is the primary strategy wrt addressing the WR position this offseason. Calling 0 for forever "not perfect" is a bit of an understatement though, dontcha think?.

I questioned your sobriety because of the ridiculous line of thought you are using. Everybody makes some mistakes.........so we should trust this particular guy about a particular aspect of his job where he's been terrible? Trust is earned. Beane has been horrible both at finding free agent value signings at WR AND wrt projecting what his own players can do with expanded opportunity. Combined he's like 0 for 15. What has worked for him is adding players who have proven themselves and have done so most recently. Diggs, Beasley, Brown and to a lesser extent Sanders. Their current WR corps is SUSPECT. Simple as that.

See I had thought Jefferson would get $37M based on the cap rise since the last two "elite" proven WR in Hill and Adams. But what that didn't take into account is the huge change in guarantees over the Hill and Adams contracts(the last WR of that ilk to get big deals). Hill got 60% guaranteed. Jefferson got 79%. That's extraordinary. Jefferson's deal in that context isn't just on par relative to what Hill and Adams signed with a lower cap.........it's far more lucrative.........not just a matter of $3M to $5M aav. Of course, we won't hear from Baghad Bob aka @Thurman#1 who at the time was also arguing that top of the market for QB's wasn't $50M because guys like JA and Mahomes(whose deals are out of date) had lower aav's than that.

Are you drunk? You are trying to point out that mistakes happen.........but that because Beane has "done more good than bad" as a GM that his WR decisions shouldn't be questioned? What? His WR choices were to trust that Robert Foster, Gabe Davis, Lil Dummy, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty were all ready for much bigger roles. None of them were. And Dawson Knox failed to elevate his game despite great expectations as well. He's 0 for forever in what he is apparently expecting of Khalil Shakir. This after the disasters of 2017 and 2018 with Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin and flyers on pedigree and past success like Corey Coleman, Jeremy Kerley, Terrelle Pryor etc.. Beane's few starter successes at WR have come when he acquired Diggs, Brown and Beasley.........players all proven in starting roles, still consistent and fairly young. Those were players who projected to play well.........and whaddya know........they played well. That's what I would trust. Literally every flyer he's taken on a WR has FAILED........including Jamison Crowder. But we are to TRUST that guys like MVS and Chase Claypool or KJ Hamler or Andy Isabella are going to bounce back when none of those players I mentioned did? GTFOH

I remember some weeks back when @Thurman#1 was shouting down the notion that the top of the WR market was in the mid-$30M's. Some people on this board (like Thurm) just have no reservations about being dead wrong about the obvious.

Did you really say the Bills issues with Diggs were "false narratives"? Why do you think they traded him and ate that money? And that you only shouted down people who wanted him traded because you hadn't bothered to look at his cap numbers yourself? Are you even serious now? You know you could always just say "yeah, I was wrong".

I liked the Josh Allen pick, said so at the time and even tried to talk some people off the ledge after the selection and have always been a big "build around" Allen guy. It's not anything I ever had to come around to. I am a ceiling-play guy when it comes to premium positions in general. But even if I had questioned the Josh Allen pick like yourself IIRC.......by 2020 it was clear to anyone with eyes that he was great. Is it different if someone like Gunner Bill says it? No. He hated the pick like you. It has no bearing on anyone wanting to not waste a season of his prime NOW.

1) For Beane, 100% of the receiving target projections have failed. It's not a coin flip, it's UNLIKELY that guys picked where Knox, Davis and Shakir were selected will turn into stud, high volume targets. That's what a lot of Bills fans don't seem to understand. 2) The reason to not make Shakir WR1 or WR2 is because of what I just said above. Starting out the season as WR3 or competing for WR3 is a "legitimate shot at hitting". It's a huge risk with one of Josh Allen's prime seasons to have him at the top of the target chain. And as much as I like Kincaid, his success came in part at the expense of success they had with Knox in seasons prior. Knox had higher passer rating when thrown to in both 2021 and 2022 than Kincaid did in 2023. Kincaid wasn't a revelation. Their passer rating when throwing to TE's dropped last year. Which is my point about Kincaid looking like a failed 1st round pick if he can't be A LOT better in 2024. 3) Coleman was 33rd overall and 8th WR off the board. Other than @HappyDays I can't recall anyone else wanting him with the Bills first pick. To me, he looks like a project. I hope I'm wrong but the guys that put up big rookie seasons tend to be guys with physical tools that allow them to get open immediately in the NFL. Coleman never even had an 800 yard season in college, he didn't get open consistently and his contested catch numbers were actually quite bad last year. I used Davante Adams as a ceiling comp, so I like his overall talent, but Adams just stunk it up his first two seasons in the NFL and didn't become a superstar until year 5. That despite also having second round pedigree along with massive college production and having a HOF QB throwing him the ball in the pro's.

That plan to give a larger role didn't work for Robert Foster in 2019, did it? It was supposed to be Foster and Brown on the outsides and Beasley as the slot. Foster fell flat on his face and they ended up needing to trade for Diggs the next offseason. Then it didn't work with Gabriel Davis or Dawson Knox in 2022. Both failed to live up to promise and that lead to the Bills needing to use their first selection on Kincaid in 2023 and then Coleman in 2024. But all 3 of Foster, Davis and Knox had incredibly efficient seasons in limited roles that made it seem like they were locks to become stars with more usage. Just like Khalil Shakir last year. I tend to buy Kincaid improving because he has special traits and no real glaring weakness like Shakir's lack of arm length. But also his numbers weren't very good. 9.2 yards per reception is pathetic for anyone not lined up at RB. If he repeated those the term "bust" would start getting tossed around.

Yeah I wouldn't be opposed to trading a 4th round pick for a guy and having him immediately put up 1493 yards and 23 TD receptions in his first year with the team and spark the offense to the all time points scored in a season record.

That's the thing about a straw man..........you made a claim nobody else was refuting and presented it as relevant. As for needing a top 5 TE........except very recently you have the 2021 season SB Rams/Bengals where NEITHER team featured a big name TE. I think your "top 5 TE" argument is a lot like the old belief that you needed a pocket passer to win a SB.......in that it was only an argument because the best QB's at the time were pocket passers. Gronk and Kelce have been attached to GOAT candidates Brady and Mahomes. And it's also an understatement to call them "top 5". They've never not been top 3 when playing and usually 1-2. Their teams have represented their conference 9 times in the last 10 SB's(8 times AFC and 1 time NFC). But Brady didn't need a great TE to win SB's. Four of the 7 he won in his career were without Gronk on the field(including the NE win over Atlanta). You can't separate the player from the position in that argument. Take Gronk and Kelce out of the equation and it's not clear that a stud TE is all that necessary. On the other hand, the proof positive about needing two very good receiving targets is that the names change very often..........but the teams that reach SB's nowadays always have them. Sometimes one of them is a TE. Sometimes not.

Well......about that...... Diggs isn't going to the HOF......not with the numbers needed as an accumulator nowadays. And the recent Bills teams will be as forgotten as the Marty Chargers or Marvin Lewis Bengals if they don't somehow win a SB soon. So ultimately Diggs will probably be remembered most for making one of the greatest plays in postseason history.

Graham? Hell no. As for Aiyuk........It takes more than 2-3 wins to reach a SB. It would be nice to have a WR corps full of guys whose game translates to both regular and post seasons.........but to get good playoff positioning you still want guys who win you a lot of regular season games. Case in point with Diggs. Last year in the Miami @ Buffalo game the Dolphins were clutching and grabbing Diggs early and got flagged. So they had to give him space and he WENT OFF. That's how the regular season works. Guys who get open are more valuable then. You really need to win A LOT of games to get into the tournament. And agree.........what the Niners were is just another example of how important receiving talent is to getting to a SB.

1) Basically, you and @Chaos have created a couple straw man arguments. Weaker versions of the factually supported argument about needing two very good WR targets to reach a SB. Where did anyone say the Bills needed a "Randy Moss"? Nobody said that. Where did anyone say that a "top 5" receiver was needed to reach a SB? Who said that, specifically? Anyone? Let alone it being some broad discussion point. You two created those false narratives so you could dispel them. 2) And yes, if you have two of the top 32 yardage producing WR in the league, you are doing damn good. Usually 4-5 teams have that every year and they are teams like KC, SF, Philly who have been reaching SB's. The Bills had two in the top 32 in 2020. That was the closest they've come to a SB.

Yeah Jimmy Graham wasn't a force on any SB team that I am aware of. If anything he is a cautionary tale about trying to make a finesse TE like he or Kincaid into your WR1 option. Seattle tried that and teams just but a boundary CB on him and shut him down. That exposure basically ended his career as an elite TE. The OP @Chaos has a point about big, physical receiving targets in the playoffs. I've said it many times.........when the holding and PI flags get tucked deep in officials pockets in the playoffs........that's when you need physical targets. That's why Kelce is better in the postseason than the regular season. He is very physical. But it doesn't have to be a TE. DK Metcalf is a big, physical boundary receiver and he's been great in the playoffs. 112.8 yards per game game 451 yards 17.3 y/r 5 TD's. Davante Adams is another who has been better in the playoffs than the regular season. In 2019 and 2020 the Bills went all-in on the idea of getting WR who get separation and once they got invested in Diggs that kinda' became what their offense was. And it complicated things in the playoffs where defense's can clutch and grab all day without a flag. They didn't go in enough on the physicality aspect.

Actually what the statistics tell us over the past decade plus is that you need TWO top receiving targets to even reach a SB. I know you don't follow the rest of the league closely but Brandon Aiyuk had 1300+ yards on 18 yards per catch last year. He was an All Pro and one of THE BEST and he wasn't sitting on the couch on SB Sunday. Neither was Deebo Samuel.......a recent All Pro who put up nearly 60 yards per game receiving as the THIRD most targeted receiver in the SF offense behind Aiyuk and Kittle and just ahead of McCaffrey. Rashee Rice and Kelce both finished top 32 in receiving yards in the NFL. Just as Juju and Kelce had the year before. These teams all have an abundance of top receiving targets.

Don't forget Gabe in 2020 was more effective than Gabe 2023. He was part of the reason they had a top 3 WR corps in the NFL that year. And Dawson Knox 2020 was way more effective than the abysmal 2023 version. Allen's passer rating when targeting the true TE was much better in 2020. The only position they were stronger at anywhere on offense in 2023 was starting RB.........which is the least important to be strong at "individually". And yes the 2023 defense was more talented on the DL. But they were OLD at too many positions overall and it showed as the season went on. The back 7 was just not near the same quality as the 2020 team because of age. Guys like Hyde, Poyer and White were nearly at an all pro level in 2020. Even AJ Klein was outstanding when he filled in for Milano/Edmunds in 2020. That was arguably the best back 7 in football in 2020. All those mentioned were shells of their former selves last year. Bernard was an upgrade on Edmunds but that's about the only one in the back 7 who was better. Back in 2020 they were kinda' known as a young, durable unit. That matters. It's why they bounced back so well and played consistently from week to week and ran off a 13-3 record(and one of the 3 losses was the Hail Murray).

They aren't going to roster 12 defensive backs on the 53. They have 10 now that all project to play roles on defense and/or special teams. And there will always be a version of Josh Norman kicking around on a practice squad somewhere to be an emergency boundary CB. They don't lack depth. Look at every other teams depth chart. They all have an Ingram or Hamlin type in their top 10. What the Bills lack are high end starters at safety. If they had prime Poyer and Hyde I doubt you'd be worried about Hamilin and Cam Lewis as the reserves. But the reality is that Edwards and Rapp were both starting safeties on SB winning teams in the very recent past. It's likely that they are "good enough".

Yeah but not having answers at receiver were a big factor as well. He threw 6 interceptions toward Gabe Davis on 81 targets. That's brutal. Sometimes bad decisions and bad options are the same thing. As the weapons around him have declined the need for him to make better decisions and have more command of his throws has increased. I'm not sure it's in him to be that point guard. As I've said, the biggest play of the season was that second and 9 incompletion to Shakir and he stared him down the whole way. Tom Brady wins ZERO SB's with Allen's eyes and touch. And I am not holding my breath for Allen to ever go all-in on being the best he can be like a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. The thing those guys and Brady have in common is that they weren't incredibly gifted athletes. They had to play at a remarkably efficient level to be good..........so taking it to the next level was a road they were already on anyway. Not the case with JA17.

Again.......here is your quote: "Last year was by far the best talent around Allen since being a Bill. And its honestly not close." In reality the 2020 weapons included 2 All Pro's and IN FACT a better OL. The only upgrade in the starting 11 that they had at any position in 2023 was James Cook at RB........the least important individual position. It's just complete revisionist nonsense on your part. Spencer Brown was solid last year. Daryl Williams was the best Bills OL in 2020 and could have easily been an All Pro RT for the second time in his career. Allen has never had more time to throw and it showed with easily his best season and highest MVP finish. Just imagine how good a more mature Josh Allen would be with those weapons and that kind of protection. Definitely a lot better than the 26 points per game offense in 2023 and probably better than the 31 point per game offense in 2020.

How these individual WR targets will perform are all interesting micro-takes but the question as a whole is can this Joe Brady offense be better with these players without having to use Josh Allen as a battering ram again. For all the hype about how well Shakir played down the stretch, Josh Allen was not that good passing the ball during that time. Probably his worst half season stretch since 2019, statistically.

You really should start a thread on this notion that the Bills weapons last year were the best since Josh Allen was a Bill. That would be entertaining.