billsfan89

Which players whose careers have entered a downturn but are being given a second/third/fourth chance on their NFL careers on the 2024 Bills (what I would call reclamation projects) will work out and be productive and which will be busts? I think all good teams take on a few and get some production from bargain shopping so to speak. Here is my list. Hits: Duwane Smoot - This was a player who was very good from 2019 to 2022 a consistent 5-6 sack a year player with the Jags whose advanced metrics were also mostly good (I know PFF is flawed but he had 68 and 70 grades in 2021 and 2022 to go along with good pass rush win rate stats). The reason he's a reclamation project is due to an Achilles injury in late 2022 (week 16). That led to Smoot coming back to the Jags on a 1 year deal in 2023 and starting the season on the PUP list. Smoot's 2023 was not very good with just 1 sack and poor advanced metrics. I think a year further removed from injury he has a good chance to take the Shaq Lawson rotational snaps and have a better season. La'el Collin - Collins was a really good player at guard and RT for the Cowboys particularly from 2017-2021. He signed as a free agent with the Bengals in 2022 in an attempt to overhaul an offensive line that was terrible. Collins in 2022 had a nagging back injury that really held him back in 2022 and then he had a really bad ACL/MCL injury in late 2022. He didn't play much in 2023 only signing on late in season with the Cowboys as a member of the PS. Now going into 2024 he's going to be 1 year 9 months removed from the 2022 injury and I think he's going to be a key component to the teams bench on the offensive line and might start at LG outright if he outshines Edwards and SVPG needs a year to develop at center. Austin Johnson - Not the most dramatic reclamation project but still someone coming off two down years in his career. I think he's going to occupy those Tim Settle/Jordan Phillips rotational snaps more effectively. Johnson was playing in a poor scheme fit in LA plus Johnson got hurt in 2022. I think he may have one more good season playing in a scheme more similar to his better years in Tennessee and with the Giants. Von Miller - Bills had no choice but to bring Von back as he was willing to restructure his deal. I don't think he regains his 2022 form but I think he can have a nice season 8-10 sacks on a good pressure rate. Von just was not good in 2023 but as the season wore on especially after the bye he started to flash a little. Hoping another off-season to heal and maybe with a new incentive laden contract he kind of gives the team the production that Floyd gave them but more evenly spread out. Busts: Deion Jones - Jones is a low risk signing and I like it but I think he's just not that good anymore. He was on the decline in Atlanta his last year there a past two years has bounced around to two teams in the Browns and Panthers neither stint he was that great. Now on the Bills I think he's a late camp cut. Chase Claypool - Another rather low risk signing but one I don't see working out. Claypool is just 25 and has tremendous talent. Claypool has even produced really well his first two years in the league with 800+ yards in back to back seasons. He was traded to Chicago and then to Miami a year later, neither stop he produced well despite being in a situation in Miami where he had a decent QB, good system and two stud WR's to take attention and give him single coverage. I know Claypool is on what is effectively his last chance so that might be motivation but if a player is a ***** head under achiever that rarely turns around. Rooting for him but I don't think this project is going to work out. Tommy Doyle/Andy Isabella/KJ Hamler/Matt Haack - Not really players that are of much significance but guys the Bills are "kicking the tires on" who were former high draft picks (Isabella and Hamler) or have had past stints with the team (Haack and Doyle) none are more than camp body PS candidates to me. So who will be the player to turn things around on the Bills this season and who won't?

I think with the signing of Smoot I just don't see the Bills going after another vet. Smoot is guaranteed 1.75 million of his 2.5 million salary. He's actually a nice upgrade to Shaq for those 4/5 DE snaps. Smoot was a routine 5-6 sack player for the Jags from 2019-2022. The only reason he was available for such a relatively cheap deal was because his 2022 season in week 16 ended with an Achilles injury and he started 2023 on the PUP list and had a bad season. One more year removed from that injury and at just age 29 I think he will be a productive rotational DE.

I think the Bills doing the cap gymnastics (converting the rest of Josh's money, converting Ed's money and then doing a heavily backloaded extension) to do a pre-season trade is unlikely. I think there's also the chance that they like what they have on the roster or at least like it enough to go into the season with it then consider a deadline deal if they need some more firepower. MVS gives you that vet depth you needed at the WR4 spot and you have Claypool and Hamler to kick the tires on and compete with Shorter for that WR6 spot (Hollins occupying that WR5 in that special teams role similar to Jake Kumerow and Sherfield.)

What does this mean for CTESPN?

The Bills will not functionally have 10 million when Tre’s money hits. Their cap space on June 1st will be 12.7 million but the Bills will need to officially sign the rookies which will intake 1-2 million, they will need to reserve 4 million for the practice squad and 3 million for in season emergencies and overruns. So in reality that’s going to leave the Bills with about 3.7 to 5 million in actual space. Of course the Bills could convert the rest of Josh’s salary to create another 6 million in space which will get the Bills back up to 10-12 million in space. There is the chance they can also restructure Ed Oliver’s contract but I doubt they are going to touch Milano’s deal as Milano is 30 and coming off a major injury. 10-12 million is not going to be easy to get a big WR contract in under the cap without backloading a massive contract that probably is not going to be tenable for the Bills long term. I think the Bills with the addition of MVS are probably going to see what they have at WR to start the season and then if there’s a real lack of firepower they can make an in season acquisition where it will be a lot easier to fit a bigger contract under the cap 6+ weeks into the season. I also think the Bills brass may also want to see what they have and know what they need to add (do they need a burner, a big body or something else?) The options likely will open up more and be easier to fit under the cap around the trade deadline.

If the Bills had 3 less sacks in that Commanders game which with 6 sacks seems like a pretty "normal" "good" game then the Bills are still tied for 5th at 51 sacks. So your thesis that the Bills ranking is that inflated by one 9 sack game is just not holding up. Looking at the Bills sack by game it doesn't really look like the Bills just "fattened up" all that much on just one game. In fact looking at sacks per-game from games 1-8 and 9-17 while there is a better rate in the first 8 weeks it is not as dramatic as fans may think. Sacks from weeks 1-8 averaged the Bills averaged 3.5 sacks a game. From weeks 9-17 the Bills averaged 2.9 sacks per game. A 3.5 sack per game pace over 17 games a season would have been 59.5 sacks which would have been right around the lead league with Baltimore who had 60 sacks. A 2.9 sack per game sack per game pace is good for 49 sacks which would have been tied with the Browns for 6th still a very strong pace over the last 9 games of the season. The Bills basically went from a top 2 sack rate in weeks 1-8 down to a top 6 sack rate in weeks 9-17. A sack rate just outside the top 5 is still a very good sack rate and dam near elite. I think the difference was really just Floyd slowed down. Floyd had 6.5 sacks in weeks 1-8 vs. just 4 in weeks 9-17 which while not tragically dramatic is still significant. But what I really think showed how less effective Floyd was performing was Floyd's QB hits also went down dramatically from 12 in the first 8 weeks to just 7 on the back 9. Had Floyd been more consistent the gap in sacks and pass rush performance would have narrowed. Bills sack totals listed for visual reference. 3 0 9 4 5 3 1 3 1 4 6 2 1 3 5 3 1

It's very possible the offense can struggle without the presence of a true number 1 WR target or multiple consistent "WR2" type players to complement Kincaid. But I also think that the Bills if the offense is struggling could make a move for a WR at the trade deadline. Once Tre's money hits the Bills will have 12.7 million in space. Take out the rookies, Practice squad and a few million for in season emergencies and you have about 3-5 million to actually play with plus another 6 million possible if they convert the rest of Josh's salary to a bonus. That 9-11 million isn't a crazy amount to play with prior to the season in terms of "Star" WR trades. But by the trade deadline 3-5 million can go a long way and 9-11 million can go a really long way. And considering the Bills have an extra 2nd and 4th round pick from Minny and Chicago they have the draft ammo to make any trade.

Bills just gotta beat the Cardinals week one and take it from there. I think they certainly are gonna have some kinks to work out early in the season with 9 rookies and the new starters on the roster but things will work out.

I didn't think there was a chance Diggs got traded this season. I do think there is a chance this team does trade for a "big time" WR but I think a trade is more likely to come at or near the trade deadline. I think for one cap wise the team even once Tre's money hits on June 1st they don't have too much to play with. They are going to have about 12.7 million once Tre's money hits. I think currently they have about 2.7 million in cap space but 10 million will get added on June 1st. But the rookie contracts will eat into that 2 million. They then will have to reserve 4 million for the practice squad and another 3ish million for in season emergencies. That will only leave them with about 3-4 million they can truly play with to make a big trade. 3-4 million will go a lot farther on a trade deadline deal when the team making the trade will have already paid some money and bigger cap numbers will be easier to absorb. I think with the addition of MVS puts them in a spot where they can "see what they have" and then understand what type of WR they need and have a better chance to fit that need under the cap.

Everyone is hyperbolic but point taken.

Everyone smokes weed who cares? Were they driving or just possession?

Bills added Edwards and MVS both have 2 SB rings as starters or key role players. Hollins also has a ring with the Eagles where he was a ST role player. So that’s 3 players added with rings as staters or role players. They also have David Edwards and Rapp who were starters on the 2021 Rams team. Also Douglas was on the Eagles Super Bowl team but didn’t play much in the playoffs. Then of course this team has Von who was a Super Bowl MVP with the Broncos and then a key starter on the 2021 Rams team. So there’s some nice Championship experience on the roster as Deion Jones also played in a Super Bowl. Hopefully that translates to more playoff success

They already added the vet DE they should have added with the signing of Smoot. D.Smoot is 29 this upcoming season so not too old to have a good season. The reason he was a low end signing was because he had an Achilles injury in 2022 and didn't have the best 2023. Smoot was an early 3rd round pick in 2017 and after two seasons where he didn't do much he settled into a good rotational DE as he had 5-6 sacks each season from 2019-2022. He wasn't very effective in 2023 due to the injury he suffered in 2022 as he only had one sack. But being another year removed from injury I think he will help take on some of those back end DE rotation snaps. I see him as hopefully a more effective Shaq Lawson.

If someone gives you 10,000 to 1 odds on anything you take it. If John Mellencamp wins an Oscar I will be a very rich man.

I am sure Butker would also love to go back to the top marginal tax rates or the higher corporate and capital gains taxes of the 1950's and 1960's. ' Maybe not a dozen but a few at least, these guys aren't getting paid for their political punditry or social commentary.

Statistically speaking money makes you happier. There's obviously exceptions both ways but it turns out the less stressed you are about money and the more opportunities afforded to you by having greater resources tends to make you happier. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnjennings/2024/02/12/money-buys-happiness-after-all/#:~:text=After re-examining the data,rise with income past %2475%2C000.

The reason stay at home mothers are considered and by some metrics are among the happiest or the happiest cohort of people is because it costs an insane amount of money to have a child and a spouse that doesn't work. So the demographic tends to be upper middle class or wealthy and while money doesn't buy happiness it is stats wise proven that the more money you have the happier you are. There simply aren't many people that can afford to have a child and a single income home. Those professions are among the top 10% of earners. It is also not like women can count on just marrying someone and staying at home. How is a woman supposed to support herself while she waits to marry someone to take care of her? The most ironic thing is that Butker's mother is a physicist. This is just a guy who didn't get enough attention from his mom lashing out.

Does the Scott Steiner Math check out when adding Kurt Angle to the mix?

Sammy Watkins and Gabe Davis are probably the best WR's drafted since 2013. I do think this team made a great hit on Shakir, it took him a year to cook and develop but Shakir reminds me a lot of Robert Woods. Both Woods and Shakir are about 6 feet tall. Woods is a half inch taller and has longer arms but Shakir is faster having run a 4.43 40 compared to Woods 4.51 40 time. Woods was a more "blue chip" prospect as he was a 2nd round pick who was projected to go there. Shakir was a a solid 3rd/4th round prospect who fell to the first pick of round 5. The short arms are the only thing that have me concerned as to if Shakir can be a consistent outside WR but he at worst is going to be a very good slot WR.

I will be honest that I was not aware that Spector was that good of a ST player. If that's the case I think you then swap in Spector and swap out one of the vets.

Tim Duncan said it best, it takes a lot of luck to win a championship. Yes coaching and talent make a big difference. But often times the difference between Andy Reid's Eagles making a bunch of deep playoff runs but coming up short and The Giants winning two Super Bowls is just luck.

I am hoping that Kincaid can really be that number one dynamic weapon while the combo of Shakir/Samuel/Knox/Coleman/Cook are enough of a complement in the secondary receiving options while Cook/Davis/Ty have success running behind a strong offensive line. I hate seeing 2023 be derailed offensively due to a injury/decline from Diggs mid-season and a badly schemed offense. Because the Bills got a great offensive line season once Brown got straightened out after a bit of a rough start and Cook had a very good RB season, it is not most seasons that both things will hold up.

Dam gotta cut someone probably would cut Shorter or Gilliam or a defensive linemen

Elway also had a strong defense and offensive line to go along with a stacked skill position core with McCaffery, Rod Smith, Shannon Sharpe and Terrell Davis. That's a HOF TE and HOF RB and a WR in Smith who should be in the HOF and another Pro-Bowl caliber WR in McCaffery. That Broncos offensive line in 1998 was insanely stacked as they had 3 players make the Pro-Bowl (back when the Pro-Bowl was a better indicator of performance), while Sharpe, Smith, McCaffery and Davis also made the Pro-Bowl with Davis also being the league MVP (on the defensive side of the ball they also had two Pro-Bowl players). It truly is a team game and if you don't have the talent around you and the coaching to put that talent with a good scheme then there is only so much you can do.

Here's my breakdown Offense QB- Allen/Mitch (2 total) RB- Cook/Davis/Ty Johnson (3 total) FB- Gilliam (1) TE- Kincaid/Knox/Morris (3 total) WR- Shakir/Coleman/Samuel/MVS/Hollins/Shorter (6 total) OL- Dawkins/McGovern/SVPG/Torrence/Brown/Edwards/Van Denmark/Collins/Anderson (9 total) Offense- 24 total Defense DT- Ed Oliver/Daquon/Carter/Johnson/D.Williams (5 total) DE- Groot/AJE/Von/Solomon/Smoot (5 total) LB- Milano/Bernard/Dorian Williams/Ulofoshio/Morrow/Spector (6 total) CB- Douglas/Taron/Benford/Elam/Ingram/Hardy (6 total) S- Edwards/Bishop/Rapp/Cam Lewis (4 total) Defense total- 26 Specialist Bass/Martin/Ferguson Specialist Total- 3 Red Shirt on IR (I know you can't just put a player on IR but I think they will find a way like they did with Shorter) - Grabel On the bubble - Hamlin, Claypool, Deion Jones, and Toohill Edited to have correct numbers and make small change.