billsfan89

Almost criminally underrated. Such a good player, definitely one of if not the best Bill of the playoff drought.

Way too early to really get a good feel for how favorable the schedule is. I think that once you get to week 5 you can start to really get a good feel for how good or bad the rest of the schedule is. The Bills got an opening win that they desperately needed. Carolina won't be easy but if you can find a way to win this week I think you can start to feel much more optimistic about the season.

The team looked OK but they most importantly got a win that they should have. Defense looked good, Jets never got a run game going and their passing game was shut down for long stretches of time. Offense was able to move the ball when it needed to only major gaffe was the early INT that was nearly a pick six, a mistake that would have cost the team the game against a better opponent most likely. They needed to get this win to keep the season alive realistically. They got the win somewhat comfortably that's a good week in my book even if there were somethings you can nitpick and be legit concerned about.

Mills didn't look awful today. Kind of picked up where he left off last year, above average to good run blocker poor pass blocker. I think that if Dawkins isn't ready you can live with Mills as the weak link to the O-line for this season. Certainly wished that the Bills found someone better but at least Mills is solid in terms of run blocking.

I also thought Tyrod had a really nice rebound from that disastrous near pick 6 early on. Tyrod played within the game plan and made the plays that needed to be made. He guided the offense very efficiently making plays with both his legs and arm. He didn't get panicky when the game was closer than expected he just kept plugging along. I can't get too excited by beating a bottom 5 team in the league in a somewhat close game. But I can be optimistic that the Bills got a win against a team they should have. Parts of the team looked good and even the parts of the team that looked bad still got it done enough.

Dareus being the new whipping boy is hilarious. I might agree that he isn't always the dominant player his contract numbers need him to be but he is a good effective player when he is out there. I think it is also so knee jerk to claim that he is terrible and unmotivated when he played a part in a great effort by the defense. The Jets couldn't run the ball at all, the Jets QB didn't have a clean pocket to work with consistently, and the Jets couldn't do much else on most of their drives. It's also one game, can we get a bigger sample size before people pile on a player?

He didn't look dominant but he didn't look bad, he definitely was productive but needs to take it up a notch against better offenses. Rush defense was very stout up the middle and he was a big part of that. There seemed to be pressure coming from the middle at times and there wasn't a clean pocket consistently. I hope he plays better but he wasn't bad at all out there in fact he was pretty good. Not much to complain about from the defense. If he made 10 million per game he would be getting paid 160 million per-season.

The Bills looked OK. They won a game they should have won comfortably but they made a couple of critical mistakes that allowed a Jets team that is vastly inferior to them hang around much longer than they should have. Tyrod's near disastrous pick early in the game is what set the team back and prevented them from building a bigger lead. But the Bills certainly played much better the rest of the way eventually putting the Jets away with that third TD. But the defense played well, it certainly was a strong performance overall from the unit. The Jets could rush the ball much at all and their passing attack only got going on 2-3 drives with limited success outside of the scoring drive. Special teams was decent although the missed kick certainly stings as making that could have made things much more comfortable for the team. Overall the game went as I suspected. The Bills won but let the Jets hang around a bit longer than they should have. The schedule doesn't get any easier so getting this first win is critical to any hope this season holds. Get the W you should have gotten and then hopefully learn from your mistakes and tighten things up for the coming weeks.

It seemed like LT was the only position along the line where the bust rate for players taken in the first two rounds was high. That's why teams still take LT's very highly not just for strategic importance but because they can be hard to find. C, G, and RT 10-15 years ago were considered very safe picks esp in the first two rounds. But now those positions seems to require more development as the skills learned in college are only applicable to spread offenses. So back when colleges ran offenses that were much more similar to pro-style offenses you had a much clearer picture of what a O-line prospect could do and how good his technique and abilities on field were. Now a lot of these linemen are drafted more on their athletic profiles and raw ability, which paints a much more incomplete picture. Now you are looking at players at what was thought to be a plug and play position taking 2-3 years to really develop. That's why I think you are seeing more guards and centers taken higher in the draft because the supply of good prospects are so low. But as Jonathon Cooper and Chance Warmack showed you don't get a sure thing taking guards that high.

To me the Bills strategy was to take back less talented players who might be more productive given the factors of health (Watkins vs. Matthews) and fit in system (Gaines vs. Darby.) While getting a pair of high draft choices that give the organization flexibility to make a big move for a QB or simply have a loaded draft class to interject a lot of talent that fits what the new regime wants to do longer term. Prior to the 2 big trades I pegged the Bills at 7-9 or 8-8, after the big trades my expectations haven't moved much I lean more towards 7-9 so I don't think they downgraded much if at all with those trades if you factor in the context.

I still think the offense is going to be a bit conservative and "off" looking in week 1. There are a ton of new parts in the offense (mainly receivers) and a new offensive system overall. I think they will look better than they did in pre-season but still look like a work in progress.

I hope that the Bills defense completely dominates the Jets offense and the offense is able to move the ball consistently while not turning the ball over on a defense that isn't the best although not trash. I hope that the Bills can avoid having the Jets hang around late in the game and just put them away going into the 4th quarter. I expect that the Bills will win a game where the Jets hang around a lot longer than expected. That the Bills will have a single possession lead late in the 4th and then maybe kick a field goal in the last few minutes to get a 2 possession lead. I think the Jets defense will keep them in the game and I suspect that the Jets offense will play very conservative in an effort to keep the game tight hoping for a mistake from the Bills. I hope that the Bills offensively can control the game but I am not sure if that happens. Overall I expect the Bills to win but not in a dominating fashion.

It use to be right tackles and interior lineman were considered plug and play positions esp if they were drafted high. But O-line play in college is mostly built around the spread offense so there is a serious issue with O-linemen needing more time to develop their fundamentals. Hopefully as Dawkins develops he can help anchor that position.

Gillislee to me is an above average RB, he graded out excellently in all advanced metrics and led the league in yards per carry last year. I think the Pats wanted him since they didn't have a traditional between the tackles runner (And were not willing to pay Blount what he was asking.) I think they fell in love with a player and were willing to give up a decent contract and pick for him. I do not think the Pats were bluffing, I think they overpaid because they knew that was the only way they could get him. Had they paid him closer to a backup then the Bills were more likely to match. I think Gillislee does rush for 1000 yards (Although not much above 1000) and 10-12 TD's with a yards per carry of slightly above 4. That's solid production but nothing crazy.

Bills 21 Jets 10 A low scoring affair, I think the Bills play super conservative and win with defense and not turning the ball over on offense. Shady will make some plays and the offense will move the ball enough.

He is by far their best and only between the tackles runner. James White, Burkhead, and Lewis are more receiving options out of the backfield. I suspect that they might use Gillislee more in the coming week. He didn't have a great yards per carry but he was used in goal line and short yardage situations which brought down his average. I suspect he will be their traditional, goal-line, and short yardage runner. I think he will be a boom or bust fantasy option due to not always getting volume or catches.

Unlike what the Browns are doing the Bills took back good players in Matthews and Gaines. Matthews and Gaines are undoubtedly less talented than Watkins and Darby. However due to health and fit in system Matthews and Gaines have a chance to be more productive than Watkins and Darby. It is a calculated risk the trades and decisions they made but a series moves designed not to be worse this upcoming season but to rather stay competitive (and even possibly be slightly better) and get a series of draft choices in 2018 and beyond. Ragland might not have ever been a fit for the system so avoiding the sunken cost fallacy to get value for a player who is both coming off injury and might not have been a fit for the system anyway is a smart move. The Jones move was good, even a late round pick is good for a player that would have been cut most likely. The only puzzling moves that I think were a bit foolish were Seymour (who I thought could have been a productive nickle corner) and cutting J.Williams (Not a major move but thought he could be a good backup RB.) Overall I think the design of these trades and off-season moves aren't designed to punt away the season and make future moves. The trades are designed to make the team as competitive but have a boat load of future picks. The design of the trade might not work out but the intentions of the moves do matter.

There are exceptions to the rule and of course once you have a QB building a team is much easier. And you do need free agency in building a team. But free agency (and trades) is more of a way to complement a good core of players and get them over the top as opposed to being a way to turn around a good team. The draft and player development is how you are going to build the core (esp if you are a team like the Bills who have to pay players to come here.) Once you have that core you can then go after some needs in free agency to take your team over the top. Free agency can be a quick sugar high that fades shortly even by NFL standards. Look at the Jets in 2015, they were 4-12 in 2014. They had a decent draft and signed a bunch of veteran free agents and made a trade for Brandon Marshall. They got way better immediately going 10-6. However by 2016 The Jets were the oldest team in the league saddled with players whose production was subpar and on big contracts. They now have to rebuild and purge for a year to get back under the cap and have a chance at a QB at the top of the draft. So yes if you are a team like the Giants that has a QB and a lot of good skill position players and some defensive talent can "buy" a good defense with a few new big contracts. But big spending sprees are not the way to build a team. No matter what the Bills are going to have to nail the draft and player development process.

I think this is good, a little more motivation for the focal point of the offense. Not much good the current cap space can do the team. Plenty more room if they need to make a move down the line.

The Chiefs added Ragland for 2018, that's why they gave up a pick in 2018 knowing that Ragland was likely going to "Redshirt" the 2017 season. This year for Ragland is a wash, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets IR'd. The Chiefs were smart to take flyer on Ragland while he still had 3 years left on his rookie deal. The Chiefs can have Ragland learn the system and culture this year while getting his knee to 100%. Then in 2018 he can take over for the older players they have at MLB.

The Bills are either soft tanking or competitively rebuilding. Lets look at the big free agents they let go. 1- Gilmore- No doubt the Pats* over paid Gilmore but Gilmore was a good player at a premium position. Gilmore is the 8th highest paid corner in the league at 13 million a year. That's a bit over an overpay as I would rank Gilmore somewhere in the 15-23 range at corner. Ideally he would be paid somewhere between 9-10 million per-year. But he hit the market at the right price and got paid. Also there is no word on if the Pats* offer was the highest or did he take a little less to go to a winning situation? If the Bills had to pay 15 million per-year to keep him I would have passed. But not overpaying a corner who might not be a fit for the system isn't a move intentionally getting worse. 2- Robert Woods- Woods is the 23rd highest paid receiver this year at 6.8 million per-year. He is nowhere close to being the 23rd best WR in the NFL and his production doesn't come close to justifying that level of pay. Overall this one was sensible to let him walk. This one was a smart move. 3- Mike Gillislee- I think Gillislee is a good back and I would have retained him. But this was a move more so born out of getting that draft pick and finding that you could replace a backup running back much easier than you can acquire an extra mid round pick. Then you have the big trades. No doubt the Bills got less talented players but that doesn't mean they will get less production. Jordan Matthews vs. Sammy Watkins - This is a clear downgrade in talent. But if Watkins can't stay on the field for more than 6 games and Matthews plays all 16 at a above average level then who is the more productive player? It is clear that long term the Bills don't want to risk their seasons on Watkins injuries and they don't want to be in a position to have to pay or franchise Watkins after 1 season if he stays healthy. Matthews will be much more affordable to sign long term and is in general more reliable. EJ Gains vs. Darby- Darby once again is much more talented but not exactly a fit for the system. Gains fits the scheme more. So once again the Bills might have a player that while not as talented will be much more productive. Reggie Ragland- Not a fit for the system at all and coming off an injury a 4th round pick was not a bad return at all. Overall I think the trade down draft day and the trades have made the Bills roster roughly about as competitive as it was before those trades but with the added benefit of having a boat load of draft picks to make a big move for a QB or simply build up the roster.

It would be interesting to see if the Colts somehow got the number 1 pick how they would approach it. Luck is still very young but if you could get from the Bills lets say hypothetically pick 10 (Bills 1st round pick) pick 24 (Chiefs 1st round pick) pick 42 (Bills 2nd round pick) pick 74 (Bills 3rd round pick) and the Bills 2019 1st for Luck would you do that? Would you take a QB 1st overall and then have 2 more 1st round picks and an additional 2nd and 3rd to build around that young QB and pocket a additional 1st the next year? Or would you take those loaded picks for pick number 1 and use those picks to rebuild around Luck? It would make more sense to build around Luck since he is a much more known entity and still young but teams get enamored with QB's coming out of the draft sometimes. I would be concerned trading away a lot of that draft capital for Luck since Luck is dealing with a major injury and any team willing to trade away a young good QB is concerning. But if Luck were medically cleared I would do that trade in a heartbeat. That would still leave the Bills with a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the draft to add some young talent, it wouldn't be a complete bankrupt of draft choices.

If you draft poorly in the NFL you are !@#$ed anyway. Free agency is a good way to supplement needs but you can't build a sustainable window of winning with a bunch of high end free agency signings. A high volume of trades tend to not work out either. You can make a big splash trade now and again if you are close to winning and need a piece to get you over the top. In the end you have to build through the draft and the Bills have the picks to do so. I also think that the Bills haven't bagged this season all that much. Jordan Matthews and Gains may be less talented than Watkins and Darby but a healthy Jordan Matthews for 16 games is a much bigger contributor than Watkins over the course of 6. Gaines is a much better fit for the scheme than Darby too. So in a way they might be slightly better due to fit and health.

In 14 games he threw 21 times per game, that's extremely low . Yes his yards per-attempt were high but that was skewed by the fact that a lot of his throws were coming on third and long. The 2004 and 2005 Steelers played a style where they ran the ball on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and short. They had Bettis and Duce Staley both rush for over 800 yard and 900 yards respectively. Big Ben ranked 28th in passing attempts in the league in 2004, they only had him throw when it was completely needed. That's not to say that Big Ben didn't make plays now and again but he definitely was a game manager his first two years in the league. In 2004 and 2005 his job with the Steelers was to simply not turn the ball over and convert a few third and longs now and again. It wasn't until 2006 that Big Ben would eclipse the 400 passing yard mark and even in that year he struggled throwing 18 TD's against 23 INT's. I think Big Ben became a real franchise QB in his 4th year in 2007 when he started to be counted on more and got more comfortable shouldering more of the offensive load. But I do think that Big Ben was definitely a case of a QB finding himself in a excellent situation where the team developed him slowly while the defense and surrounding talent was good enough to carry a weaker QB.

PFF Pre-Season I am sure can be skewed but it is a good sign to get a good grade on advanced metrics even if it is just pre-season.