This roster is a disaster however…..

[Saint Doug]

Outside of a few players (Benford, Josh, Cook), this roster is what I would call high floor, low ceiling. 

[Rochesterfan]

8 minutes ago, Saint Doug said:

Outside of a few players (Benford, Josh, Cook), this roster is what I would call high floor, low ceiling. 

 

You could be Cincinnati- a high high high ceiling team that is going to miss the playoffs again.

[All_Pro_Bills]

17 minutes ago, Pete said:

The problem has been if the opposing D stops the run game, everything becomes very difficult on offense.  Team play man to man, and WRs rarely separate.  If Josh doesn’t have his cape, that’s the game Buffalo has been losing.

And looking at this problem in practice, what does anyone expect the Patriots are going to scheme up on defense next Sunday? Everyone here can figure it out. They're going to look to take away the run by bringing the safeties down into the box and play press man coverage on the receivers. Brady better have his thinking cap on this week designing and developing a game plan to address what should be absolutely no surprise. If its me I would dial up a play action deep pass to Cooks on the first play of the game to let them know I'm ready.

 

On the lighter side, the Bills will have a total of 6 timeouts. How many will McDermott call on defense after seeing how the offense lines up on some play? And will wasting these time outs ever work or will the opponent continue to always get a first down?

Edited 1 hour ago by All_Pro_Bills

[dickleyjones]

9 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Even though Beane has done a terrible job assembling this roster we are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and have a remote chance of finishing first in the East.  Meanwhile teams like Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs are almost eliminated from the playoffs yet people thought those rosters are in much better shape than ours.  Could you imagine if Josh had the weapons Burrow has or we had a defense that can actually generate pressure on the QB?  We are lucky we have Superman on our side but it would be nice if he had a supporting cast like the Superman has with the Justice League 😀

 

If we don’t win the east being the fifth seed won’t be a bad thing Pitt and Balt are terrible and as long as Cincy doesn’t end up winning that division I can see us winning a playoff game on the road.

this post is a disaster however...actually no, it's just a disaster.

[Billsatlastin2018]

9 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Even though Beane has done a terrible job assembling this roster we are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and have a remote chance of finishing first in the East.  Meanwhile teams like Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs are almost eliminated from the playoffs yet people thought those rosters are in much better shape than ours.  Could you imagine if Josh had the weapons Burrow has or we had a defense that can actually generate pressure on the QB?  We are lucky we have Superman on our side but it would be nice if he had a supporting cast like the Superman has with the Justice League 😀

 

If we don’t win the east being the fifth seed won’t be a bad thing Pitt and Balt are terrible and as long as Cincy doesn’t end up winning that division I can see us winning a playoff game on the road.

To help anyone focus on this correct statement, just go back and watch Higgins & Gesicki making these all world leaping catches yesterday! And Burrow still has Chase to boot.

 

Now, look at the reverse. Look at the 7 second TD dart to Shakir or that other unreal play by 17. Was it 10 seconds… 15 seconds? 
 

Where the hell is ONE open WR?

 

It is cringeworthy embarrassing what Beanbrain has FUBARed this season!

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The roster is not a disaster. It is deep. Brandon Beane prioritises depth in his roster builds. Always has. I would argue the Bills at one point in camp this past year had around 65 guys who could probably be serviceable NFL football players without being liabilities on the field if called upon to play in spot duty. That allows the coaches to piece together a competitive team even when, for example, you are down both starting tackles or when, for example, you have multiple safeties done for the year or when, for example, your defensive tackle room is decimated by November. 

 

If anyone has ever tried to criticise Brandon Beane for depth they were barking up the wrong tree. He consistently succeeds if that is your metric. The issue is his depth approach feels like, at times, it has come at the expense of genuine game changers. Particularly up front on defense and at wide receiver.  And when you add that to the fact he has struggled to draft true game changers it leaves the very top of the roster a little thin. 

 

That is a different roster build than Baltimore or Kansas City. They are more top heavy builds and they are not able to roll with the punches from injuries as well as Buffalo is. I'll exclude Cincy from this conversation because (while their roster has issues, especially on defense) when you lose your Quarterback for 9 games no amount of depth is saving you. 

This is right on the money. And there's more to it than just that. It's an integrated team-building approach. They don't do anything except by design. 

 

Two things happen when you get the right quarterback. One is you win a lot, so you're never in line for premium draft picks. The other is you pay him a fortune, so you never have cap room to buy much premium talent. It's just a given. (The exception is if your QB blossoms early, when you have a two- or three-year window with cap room.) The result is that it's very difficult come up with stud players to add to your roster. You have to get lucky with a Pucua or  a Benford.

 

McDermott's and Beane's approach to this problem always has been the same - build depth. That has two benefits. One is that instead of chasing after high-price talent and leaving yourself exposed at some positions, you have guys at every position that you can afford.  It also means that your bench players are nearly as good as most of your starters, so when injuries happen, you usually have a guy on your bench who can fill in quite well. 

 

It also means that you platoon some positions, particularly the receiver room and the defensive line.  That keeps your players fresher throughout the game, and it also means you can survive injuries with guys who have been playing a lot, anyway. Just about all of the Bills receivers have missed time, and so have many of the d linemen. The team moves on without missing them too much, because the replacements are all starter quality. 

 

Now, I know a bunch of people reading this are screaming, "That's nonsense. The Bills receivers are terrible, and their dline is a sieve."  Well, the Bills are 11th in yards per game passing, 7th in passing touchdowns, and 6th in passer rating, and that's with a team that has one of the top rushing attacks in the league - first in yards per game and second in rushing touchdowns. That means they have a very good passing attack, despite the absence of a high-end receiver. Then people will say, that's because they have Allen. Of course, but if you don't have your QB, we aren't having this question.  Sure, the Bills have Allen - he's what makes it possible to save money by having a receiver by committee approach and he's also the reason the Bills have to save money. And yes, the Bills give up a lot of yards rushing, but they're near the top of the league in yards passing allowed and they're 8th in defensive passer rating.  

 

The defense is 10th in yards per game and 14th in points per game, not great but not a disaster. So, the total defense is holding up, despite the absence of a stud dlineman.

 

This personnel philosophy is also complementary to the Bills' approach to offense and defense generally, which is that teamwork can produce greater advantages than marginally better talent. They believe that eight talented guys rotating on the dline will produce better results than four guys, one of whom is Watt or a Chris Jones. You can argue with that, but that's what they believe.  (And, as noted above, those eight guys rotating almost certainly are better than a team that relies on a Watt or a Jones when that guy is injured and out of the lineup).

 

So, it isn't simply that Beane prioritizes depth because he likes depth. They value depth over a few highly talented players and a bunch of other guys, because it fits better with their payroll, their draft status, and their ability to deal with injuries. And we see it working this season. Depth at receiver is working. Depth at o line has helped. And as much as people whine about it, Beane signing retread depth like White, Poyer, Philips, and Shaq Thompson has helped the Bills get to where they stand now. 

 

 

 

 

[The Jokeman]

7 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

To help anyone focus on this correct statement, just go back and watch Higgins & Gesicki making these all world leaping catches yesterday! And Burrow still has Chase to boot.

 

Now, look at the reverse. Look at the 7 second TD dart to Shakir or that other unreal play by 17. Was it 10 seconds… 15 seconds? 
 

Where the hell is ONE open WR?

 

It is cringeworthy embarrassing what Beanbrain has FUBARed this season!

And yet which team won? The one with the better defense? Hmmmm guess trying to outscore opposition not always best strategy. Yet I know we won cuz of just Josh.

[Fetou]

8 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Dude, you have no idea what a terrible roster really looks like.  

You'd have a better idea of what one looks like if you put a solid journeyman QB on this squad. 

[fergie's ire]

9 hours ago, Sweats said:

I don't think our roster is any worse than any other team.........i just don't think the players on our roster are living up to their potential.

 

We saw yesterday in the 4th quarter when they "turn it on" and wake up.

 

We need this enthusiasm and fire burning in their belly's on the first play in the 1st quarter and run with it the entire game, not just for one or two quarters.

I think this issue and can happen for a variety of reasons.  One criticism of Beane is that a lot of his free agent DT aquisitions have not been good.  However, I saw a list of the top 10 DTs in the league (sorry...don't remember who put it out) this year and 2 Beane free agent pickups made the list: Poona Ford and Tim Settle. If they played here, like they're playing now, they would have been amazing signings.

[Billzgobowlin]

10 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Even though Beane has done a terrible job assembling this roster we are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and have a remote chance of finishing first in the East.  Meanwhile teams like Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs are almost eliminated from the playoffs yet people thought those rosters are in much better shape than ours.  Could you imagine if Josh had the weapons Burrow has or we had a defense that can actually generate pressure on the QB?  We are lucky we have Superman on our side but it would be nice if he had a supporting cast like the Superman has with the Justice League 😀

 

If we don’t win the east being the fifth seed won’t be a bad thing Pitt and Balt are terrible and as long as Cincy doesn’t end up winning that division I can see us winning a playoff game on the road.

So Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs have great QBs but aren't in position for the playoffs yet the Bills are?  (I get the Bengals with Burrow) Beane must be doing something right.

Edited 43 minutes ago by Billzgobowlin

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

And yet which team won? The one with the better defense? Hmmmm guess trying to outscore opposition not always best strategy. Yet I know we won cuz of just Josh.

And the argument that the Bills won because of Josh really is a meaningless argument. Eight of ten wins, the Chiefs win because of Mahomes, the Ravens win because of Jackson, the Bengals win because of Jackson.  

 

This whole discussion is pretty silly, because the only fans that are having discussions like this are fans of teams that have a star quarterback. All the other fans are having discussions about why their GM doesn't get a quarterback. 

 

Of course the Bills win because of Josh. And, as you say, the Bills are winning with this roster philosophy. 

[mjt328]

I would call this roster very flawed.  Not sure it's accurate to use the term "disaster" though.

 

Previous seasons, I was worried about facing specific teams/players in the playoffs (Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals).  This year, there isn't a single team that I'm really afraid of facing.  Mostly AFC, but also the NFC.  We are more than capable of beating every single one, even with the huge issues we've had over the course of the season.

 

My biggest worry this year is consistency.  Can we put together 4 straight quality games against good/very good teams once the postseason rolls around?  I could easily see us smacking around the #1 seed Broncos and putting up 30 on their defense, and then somehow falling apart in a rematch with the Steelers.  Nobody knows what version of the Bills is actually going to show up from week to week.

 

I'm going to be watching several things very closely over the next four games to see whether the Bills have found some answers and turned the corner... or if we are going to continue seeing the up/down roller coaster for the remainder of the year.

• The run defense has been solid the last 8-10 quarters... pretty much since Terrel Bernard got hurt, and was replaced with Shaq Thompson.  The Run D has easily been our biggest weakness this season.  So keeping it at an average level would be a huge boost going forward.
• The passing offense has been very uneven at times, for many reasons.  Josh Allen has been in a slump, but had possibly his best game of the year yesterday.  Can he keep playing at that level the rest of the year?  Dalton Kincaid being back healthy helps.  Joe Brady's gameplans have been much better the last two games.  Can Brandin Cooks give us a respectable threat on the outside?
• Can the pass rush get a boost from Joey Bosa and Ed Oliver returning down the stretch?

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, Sweats said:

I don't think our roster is any worse than any other team.........i just don't think the players on our roster are living up to their potential.

 

We saw yesterday in the 4th quarter when they "turn it on" and wake up.

 

We need this enthusiasm and fire burning in their belly's on the first play in the 1st quarter and run with it the entire game, not just for one or two quarters.

I don't think he'd ever admit it, but I'm pretty confident that McDermott has dialed down the intensity of the players for the first three months of the season.  I think we're just now starting to see more hitting, tighter coverages, more blitzing. I think he believes, and I agree, that for several of the previous seasons the Bills peaked too early. He doesn't want that to happen any more. He wants to peak in January. 

 

I say it particularly about tighter coverages.  In October the underneath receivers on in-breaking and out-breaking routes were open a lot. They had big cushions.  Compare that to yesterday.  Yes, Burrow completed a lot, but playing against as good a pair of wide outs and an excellent TE, the number of plays when the defender was right there, often making a play on a perfectly throw ball, was impressive.  It's the same defenders, but they're getting tougher and tougher as the season goes on.

[mjt328]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And the argument that the Bills won because of Josh really is a meaningless argument. Eight of ten wins, the Chiefs win because of Mahomes, the Ravens win because of Jackson, the Bengals win because of Jackson.  

 

This whole discussion is pretty silly, because the only fans that are having discussions like this are fans of teams that have a star quarterback. All the other fans are having discussions about why their GM doesn't get a quarterback. 

 

Of course the Bills win because of Josh. And, as you say, the Bills are winning with this roster philosophy. 

 

Very good point.  Most teams with superstar QBs are going to be carried by their superstar QB.

 

I would also argue that Buffalo has won as many (if not more) games this season because of James Cook, than because of Josh Allen.

 

Also, Christian Benford should get equal credit for helping the Bills win that game (crazy pick six AND shutting down Jamar Chase).

[mjt328]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think he'd ever admit it, but I'm pretty confident that McDermott has dialed down the intensity of the players for the first three months of the season.  I think we're just now starting to see more hitting, tighter coverages, more blitzing. I think he believes, and I agree, that for several of the previous seasons the Bills peaked too early. He doesn't want that to happen any more. He wants to peak in January. 

 

I say it particularly about tighter coverages.  In October the underneath receivers on in-breaking and out-breaking routes were open a lot. They had big cushions.  Compare that to yesterday.  Yes, Burrow completed a lot, but playing against as good a pair of wide outs and an excellent TE, the number of plays when the defender was right there, often making a play on a perfectly throw ball, was impressive.  It's the same defenders, but they're getting tougher and tougher as the season goes on.

 

The Bills going through an October slump has pretty much become the standard.

Penalties.  Turnovers.  Poor Run D. 

Even Josh reverting to bad habits.

 

Sometimes it stretches into November.  And it doesn't seem to matter who the opponent is.  

 

Then suddenly it hits Thanksgiving and the team wakes up.

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

9 hours ago, CarolinaBillsFan said:

I think we can beat anybody, despite the first half defense, when they let Josh play like he did yesterday!

I go back and forth between optimism and pessimism. Right now it looks like the Bengals, Chiefs, and Ravens are going to miss the playoffs. So the teams we went into the season maybe fearing most are no threat. The Colts and Jonathan Taylor are fading. And with Jones hurt it looks over for that team.

Denver, New England, Houston, and even Jacksonville look good. But the playoffs bring extra expectations and pressure. They're all pretty new to the dance. Experience is something the Bills have over them all. Still they have to play their best to win. Maybe get some players back healthy? And make a run. For this to work the defense needs to show up big.

The Bills beating the Patriots next week would be huge. Planting the seeds of doubt for a potential playoff rematch.

Edited 25 minutes ago by All_Pro_Bills

[WotAGuy]

2 hours ago, folz said:

And then when they do unleash him, or he is needed to step up to dig the team out of a hole, the same fans cry that Josh has to do everything on his own. I believe that is called cognitive dissonance.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

I have cognitive issues, but don’t see why we need to bring that into the discussion. We were talking about the need for a domed stadium - let’s get back to the topic at hand, shall we?

 

 

Edited 25 minutes ago by WotAGuy

[Rochesterfan]

40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is right on the money. And there's more to it than just that. It's an integrated team-building approach. They don't do anything except by design. 

 

Two things happen when you get the right quarterback. One is you win a lot, so you're never in line for premium draft picks. The other is you pay him a fortune, so you never have cap room to buy much premium talent. It's just a given. (The exception is if your QB blossoms early, when you have a two- or three-year window with cap room.) The result is that it's very difficult come up with stud players to add to your roster. You have to get lucky with a Pucua or  a Benford.

 

McDermott's and Beane's approach to this problem always has been the same - build depth. That has two benefits. One is that instead of chasing after high-price talent and leaving yourself exposed at some positions, you have guys at every position that you can afford.  It also means that your bench players are nearly as good as most of your starters, so when injuries happen, you usually have a guy on your bench who can fill in quite well. 

 

It also means that you platoon some positions, particularly the receiver room and the defensive line.  That keeps your players fresher throughout the game, and it also means you can survive injuries with guys who have been playing a lot, anyway. Just about all of the Bills receivers have missed time, and so have many of the d linemen. The team moves on without missing them too much, because the replacements are all starter quality. 

 

Now, I know a bunch of people reading this are screaming, "That's nonsense. The Bills receivers are terrible, and their dline is a sieve."  Well, the Bills are 11th in yards per game passing, 7th in passing touchdowns, and 6th in passer rating, and that's with a team that has one of the top rushing attacks in the league - first in yards per game and second in rushing touchdowns. That means they have a very good passing attack, despite the absence of a high-end receiver. Then people will say, that's because they have Allen. Of course, but if you don't have your QB, we aren't having this question.  Sure, the Bills have Allen - he's what makes it possible to save money by having a receiver by committee approach and he's also the reason the Bills have to save money. And yes, the Bills give up a lot of yards rushing, but they're near the top of the league in yards passing allowed and they're 8th in defensive passer rating.  

 

The defense is 10th in yards per game and 14th in points per game, not great but not a disaster. So, the total defense is holding up, despite the absence of a stud dlineman.

 

This personnel philosophy is also complementary to the Bills' approach to offense and defense generally, which is that teamwork can produce greater advantages than marginally better talent. They believe that eight talented guys rotating on the dline will produce better results than four guys, one of whom is Watt or a Chris Jones. You can argue with that, but that's what they believe.  (And, as noted above, those eight guys rotating almost certainly are better than a team that relies on a Watt or a Jones when that guy is injured and out of the lineup).

 

So, it isn't simply that Beane prioritizes depth because he likes depth. They value depth over a few highly talented players and a bunch of other guys, because it fits better with their payroll, their draft status, and their ability to deal with injuries. And we see it working this season. Depth at receiver is working. Depth at o line has helped. And as much as people whine about it, Beane signing retread depth like White, Poyer, Philips, and Shaq Thompson has helped the Bills get to where they stand now. 

 

 

 

 

 

I love this and I will add that a huge issue the Bills had is timing.  Beane is very calculating and is drafting not for this year, but typically the following FA class.

 

Where things fell apart in his plan was when Josh got good and needed his extension.  It was COVID years and Beane had to pay Josh, but the overall Cap went down rather than going up as was planned.  They lost a ton of available Cap space that he had planned to use.
 

The 2 Covid years coincided with the timing that they would of had some extra money before the big part of Josh’s extension kicked in and instead of having the money like NE will with Maye - the Bills had to kick some money down the road with the drop in salary cap.  They have been fighting that ever since just to retain their talent and bring in help. 

 

The Bills could have done the Eagles approach and get rid of a ton of talent - fall apart and miss the playoffs a couple of times and then hope the higher draft picks in the top 10 then increase your talent, but everyone would flip out missing the playoffs.

 

Teams like SF, LA, Cincinnati, Houston, NE all had to be really bad to get better - the Bills are maintaining their excellent level, but it comes with a talent drain that they have to overcome.  You see the same thing in KC right now.  It happens to consistently good teams over time.

Edited 14 minutes ago by Rochesterfan

[Buffalo716]

40 minutes ago, Fetou said:

You'd have a better idea of what one looks like if you put a solid journeyman QB on this squad. 

We made the playoffs with TT with a weaker roster lol

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Then suddenly it hits Thanksgiving and the team wakes up.

 

As I said, I think it's by design.  Nothing happens by accident with McDermott.

7 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I love this and I will add that a huge issue the Bills had is timing.  Beane is very calculating and is drafting not for this year, but typically the following FA class.

 

Where things fell apart in his plan was when Josh got good and needed his extension.  It was COVID years and Beane had to pay Josh, but the overall Cap went down rather than going up as was planned.  They lost a ton of available Cap space that he had planned to use.
 

The 2 Covid years coincided with the timing that they would of had some extra money before the big part of Josh’s extension kicked in and instead of having the money like NE will with Maye - the Bills had to kick some money down the road with the drop in salary cap.  They have been fighting that ever since just to retain their talent and bring in help. 

 

The Bills could have done the Eagles approach and get rid of a ton of talent - fall apart and miss the playoffs a couple of times and then hope the higher draft picks in the top 10 then increase your talent, but everyone would flip out missing the playoffs.

 

Teams like SF, LA, Cincinnati, Houston, NE all had to be really bad to get better - the Bills are maintaining their excellent level, but it comes with a talent drain that they have to overcome.  You see the same thing in KC right now.  It happens to consistently good teams over time.

Thanks. These are good points. 

 

When they got to Buffalo, they said their approach was that the team would get better every season. They were clear that they would not mortgage the future to make a quick run to the Super Bowl, followed by a tear down. That is not what they're trying to do.