If we beat the Bengals, we’re winning the AFC

[No_Matter_What]

I know this is kind of a “hear me out” or LAM post, and I know that objectively we only have about a 4% chance right now. I also admit I’m a bit of a homer, but I still think this is rational enough.

 

I think the Bengals are the toughest game left on the schedule. If we win that one, we have a good chance to win out. I know most of you think this team is flawed and that McD is a bad coach, but we actually have a good regular-season track record with him, and we’re traditionally great in December. Oh, and we are NOT losing twice to the Pats* this year.

 

And if we do win out, only the following things need to happen for us to get the 1-seed:

 

Patriots lose one more divisional game (@ Jets, vs. Dolphins) or both of their other games (vs. Giants, @ Ravens). This is not impossible at all. I know they’re good, but nobody wins every game. I’d bet they drop one of those divisional matchups.

 

Broncos lose two more games — @ Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs. Chargers. It is pretty likely this will happen. They’re winning too many close games, and that’s a tough schedule.

 

Colts, Chargers, Jaguars each lose one game. That’s basically guaranteed.

 

So in my mind, we really only need two things: beat the Bengals, and then hope either the Dolphins or Jets can pull off a divisional win.

 

If it fails, then I’m back to my original expectation: we’ll be playing a wild card game @ Ravens.

Edited 1 hour ago by No_Matter_What
Changed wording related to Broncos

[ProcessTruster]

sure, sounds good to me.  the league has done a good job of loading the backend of the schedule with intra division / conference games. 

 

makes it all so interesting, esp this year where there is no runaway #1 seed at all

 

Get healthy, Bills.  LIght up the Bengals D and go from there.  

[boyst]

We could win out, the Patriots could lose one to us, and the colds could lose just one more putting us all at 13 and 4. We would be the five seed. This is the most likely happenstance in my opinion. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

If the Bills finish 13-4, for me it doesn’t matter what the rest of the league does, we are winning it all.

[Process]

We win the tiebreaker if Bills and Broncos finish 13-4? Do we know that?

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

We win the tiebreaker if Bills and Broncos finish 13-4? Do we know that?

 

Only IF the Bronco losses are both AFC teams.

[Einstein]

Ya know what? I’m on board! Let’s do it.

[RobbRiddick]

Positivity! That's just what I needed after the weeks of misery I've been inflicting upon myself. A few more posts like this and I'll be ready to wash the feces off my bedroom walls and leave the house for the first time since October

[finn]

I'm starting to get excited about the Bills defense. Seems like McDermott has decided to assume the coordinator role, and the results are impressive: better tackling, more aggressive attitude, a renewed determination to force turnovers. Or at least what I think I'm seeing and hope will continue. They've struggled with tackling against the run, and if they really have fixed that, as it appears, they have a chance to be excellent, barring injuries. Shaq for Bernard is a key change, as is Poyer for Rapp. Sanders at end might be something. Still concerned about the pass rush, so it's not all daisies, but I do think this unit could do its part and more. Maybe, just maybe, soft zones and bend don't break have been shelved.

 

Offense... I keep thinking of those games--New England, Houston, Atlanta--where the D gave them a chance and they didn't take it. I've made Brady my whipping boy and stand by that take, but I think they can do better despite his input. Allen could audible to different plays, Cooks could end up being a late-model Diggs, Kincaid might not be injured the second he returns. Heck, Brady might even stumble across "play action" while browsing online some night and boldly put it in his game plan. Admittedly, it would mean the end of his quest for the NFL record for runs on first down, but he might be man enough to put his ego aside for the good of the team. A fan can only hope. 

EDIT: I meant say all this by way of agreeing they have a chance to go all the way to the AFCCG.

Edited 33 minutes ago by finn

[Paup 1995MVP]

43 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know this is kind of a “hear me out” or LAM post, and I know that objectively we only have about a 4% chance right now. I also admit I’m a bit of a homer, but I still think this is rational enough.

 

I think the Bengals are the toughest game left on the schedule. If we win that one, we have a good chance to win out. I know most of you think this team is flawed and that McD is a bad coach, but we actually have a good regular-season track record with him, and we’re traditionally great in December. Oh, and we are NOT losing twice to the Pats* this year.

 

And if we do win out, only the following things need to happen for us to get the 1-seed:

 

Patriots lose one more divisional game (@ Jets, vs. Dolphins) or both of their other games (vs. Giants, @ Ravens). This is not impossible at all. I know they’re good, but nobody wins every game. I’d bet they drop one of those divisional matchups.

 

Broncos lose two more games — @ Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs. Chargers. It is pretty likely this will happen. They’re winning too many close games, and that’s a tough schedule.

 

Colts, Chargers, Jaguars each lose one game. That’s basically guaranteed.

 

So in my mind, we really only need two things: beat the Bengals, and then hope either the Dolphins or Jets can pull off a divisional win.

 

If it fails, then I’m back to my original expectation: we’ll be playing a wild card game @ Ravens.

You must have too much time on your hands coming up with all that.  I got a headache just reading it.  

 

That being said, regardless of if we get the #1 seed (which isn't going to happen) or the 7th seed.  If we play well over the next 5 games, we will have as good a shot as any team to win the AFC, and get to the Super Bowl.  Home field is overrated.  We lost to Cinci in 2022 and the Chiefs in 2023 on our home field in the playoffs.  (I think there is more pressure on the home team in the playoffs.)  If Josh and the rest of the team get their confidence at peak level, I like our chances at anybody's stadium.

 

Should be fun to watch it play out after curb stomping the mighty (LOL) Steelers.  

[TheFunPolice]

45 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

sure, sounds good to me.  the league has done a good job of loading the backend of the schedule with intra division / conference games. 

 

makes it all so interesting, esp this year where there is no runaway #1 seed at all

 

Get healthy, Bills.  LIght up the Bengals D and go from there.  

 

This is what the league wanted and it's really the first year it has worked out so well. 

 

December is going to be like Wild Card weekend every week, starting this Thursday night with Cowboys/Lions. Every weekend is going to be packed with games between teams with great records and all sorts of playoff implications. 

 

Almost anything could still happen. Those looking at the AFC and thinking it's over for teams like KC should remember that all those 3-4 loss teams are going to play each other, sometimes twice, still. 

 

So 9-3 or 8-4 teams will become 9-5 or 8-6 teams. Then the 7 seed becomes a race. 

Edited 17 minutes ago by TheFunPolice

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know this is kind of a “hear me out” or LAM post, and I know that objectively we only have about a 4% chance right now. I also admit I’m a bit of a homer, but I still think this is rational enough.

 

I think the Bengals are the toughest game left on the schedule. If we win that one, we have a good chance to win out. I know most of you think this team is flawed and that McD is a bad coach, but we actually have a good regular-season track record with him, and we’re traditionally great in December. Oh, and we are NOT losing twice to the Pats* this year.

 

And if we do win out, only the following things need to happen for us to get the 1-seed:

 

Patriots lose one more divisional game (@ Jets, vs. Dolphins) or both of their other games (vs. Giants, @ Ravens). This is not impossible at all. I know they’re good, but nobody wins every game. I’d bet they drop one of those divisional matchups.

 

Broncos lose two more games — @ Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs. Chargers. It is pretty likely this will happen. They’re winning too many close games, and that’s a tough schedule.

 

Colts, Chargers, Jaguars each lose one game. That’s basically guaranteed.

 

So in my mind, we really only need two things: beat the Bengals, and then hope either the Dolphins or Jets can pull off a divisional win.

 

If it fails, then I’m back to my original expectation: we’ll be playing a wild card game @ Ravens.

I like the optimism, but I’m betting we lose at least one more game.

[fergie's ire]

How will you feel if Patriots lose tonight?  Seems far fetched...but who would've thought the Broncos Commanders game would go to overtime.  Also heard something about Pats having O-line injuries.  Also, I think the chances of winning the division are better than they were this time of year 2 years ago.