Josh Allen "Most Betrayed" QB in the NFL

[Big Turk]

Interesting concept...Mike Sando has created a "Betrayal Index" that shows how the other areas of the team are complimenting the QB play.

 

Allen leads the NFL with 9.4 EPA/start but the Defense and Special Teams contribute -2.9 EPA/start

 

This makes him the most "betrayed" QB in the NFL relative to his performance versus his complimentary performance.

 

Once again showing why Allen should be the MVP...

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/article/bills-josh-allen-cowboys-dak-174920265.html

Edited 4 hours ago by Big Turk

[RiotAct]

just confirms what we all pretty much knew already

[BruceVilanch]

Pretty dramatic name for a metric

[BuffaloBillyG]

Next up:

 

Mike Sando creates a "Burn Book"

[dayman]

Fair

[Maynard]

[dayman]

Just now, Maynard said:

Judas Bean

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Interesting concept...Mike Sando has created a "Betrayal Index" that shows how the other areas of the team are complimenting the QB play.

 

Allen leads the NFL with 9.4 EPA/start but the Defense and Special Teams contribute -2.9 EPA/start

 

This makes him the most "betrayed" QB in the NFL relative to his performance versus his complimentary performance.

 

Once again showing why Allen should be the MVP...

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/article/bills-josh-allen-cowboys-dak-174920265.html

Yeah but if this index was around 4-5 years ago Josh would have had the most friendly index 

 

And we still would have complained 

 

But we've put out a lot of top 10 defenses that were top five in a lot of categories .. including a number one defense

 

Our defense is playing like crap right now of course the metrics don't support

Edited 3 hours ago by Buffalo716

[dayman]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Yeah but if this index was around 4-5 years ago Josh would have had the most friendly index 

 

And we still would have complained 

 

But we've put out a lot of top 10 defenses that were top five in a lot of categories .. including a number one defense

 

Our defense is playing like crap right now of course the metrics don't support

Those years it was paper tiger though. Could keep a lid on average teams, never stopped a nose bleed in the playoffs. Never rushed the passer. Also got a lot of turnovers which is, at least in part, always a fluky thing when you have a streak like that. It was never a great defense, those of us that watched know that.

[BillsPride12]

Im as frustrated as anyone with the way Beane has handled the WR room after trading Diggs but it doesn't sound like they are taking into account Offensive Line. I'm sure Joe Burrow feels betrayed by Cincinnati in that regard 😂

[Buffalo716]

17 minutes ago, dayman said:

Those years it was paper tiger though. Could keep a lid on average teams, never stopped a nose bleed in the playoffs. Never rushed the passer. Also got a lot of turnovers which is, at least in part, always a fluky thing when you have a streak like that. It was never a great defense, those of us that watched know that.

No offense but I am 100% certain so many people have disliked Sean McDermott for so long they're going to call out anything 

 

And call everything a paper tiger 

 

We've literally gone into the playoffs with the Chiefs starting AJ Klein at linebacker  because of injuries... Played without our starting safety 

 

Played without Bernard .. played without Milano 

 

Played without Christian Benford 

 

We've literally been handicapped in the playoffs for years 

 

And in the NFL if you could put out multiple years of top five defenses you're not a paper tiger... Josh can score 30 on top 10 NFL defenses 

 

Everybody will always complain 

 

We've lost by a field goal to the Chiefs two straight years in the playoffs severely handicapped .. not with injuries that are 10 weeks old that professionals adjust to 

 

Injuries that are 6 days old 10 days old.. and we're playing outmanned and we've lost by field goals 

 

So if Andy Reid had the better teams and we are more hurt.. I'm pretty sure Sean McDermott did a hell of a coaching job the last two years despite the narrative

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Buffalo716

[dayman]

We’ve been hurt, sure. We’ve also been a contain/bend but don’t break that always broke. I dont hate McD. I don’t even blame him primarily. Don’t say we’ve had a great D though. Not true. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, dayman said:

Judas Bean

Et tu, Beane?

[hondo in seattle]

AI did this for me...

 

🏈 Josh Allen vs. Tom Brady — EPA/play Comparison

 

EPA/play = Expected Points Added per play. It measures how much each play increases scoring chances,
adjusted for down, distance, field position, and game situation. Higher = more efficient.

 

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 Season         | Josh Allen EPA/play | Tom Brady EPA/play | Notes
────────────────|---------------------|---------------------|────────────────────────────────────────────
 2020           |       ~+0.25        |         —           | Allen’s breakout; MVP runner-up
 2021           |       ~+0.20        |         —           | Allen’s rushing EPA surged; Brady led NFL in passing
 2022           |       ~+0.18        |         —           | Allen remained top 5 in EPA/play
 2023           |       ~+0.17        |         —           | Slight dip; still elite
 2024           |       ~+0.20       |         —           | Rebounded; dual-threat dominance
 2025           |       +0.26         |         —           | Leads NFL in EPA/play
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 Peak Brady     |         —           |       ~+0.30        | 2007: 50 TDs, 16-0 season
 Brady 2010–12  |         —         |       ~+0.25        | Consistent top-tier efficiency
 Brady 2020–21  |         —         |       ~+0.22        | Tampa years: high volume, strong EPA/play
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

 

🔍Key Takeaways:

• Allen’s EPA/play since 2020 has consistently ranked top 5, peaking in 2025.
• Brady’s best seasons matched or slightly exceeded Allen’s, but without rushing value.
• Allen’s dual-threat profile gives him a modern edge; Brady’s career longevity remains unmatched.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

No offense but I am 100% certain so many people have disliked Sean McDermott for so long they're going to call out anything 

 

And call everything a paper tiger 

 

We've literally gone into the playoffs with the Chiefs starting AJ Klein at linebacker  because of injuries... Played without our starting safety 

 

Played without Bernard .. played without Milano 

 

Played without Christian Benford 

 

We've literally been handicapped in the playoffs for years 

 

And in the NFL if you could put out multiple years of top five defenses you're not a paper tiger... Josh can score 30 on top 10 NFL defenses 

 

Everybody will always complain 

 

We've lost by a field goal to the Chiefs two straight years in the playoffs severely handicapped .. not with injuries that are 10 weeks old that professionals adjust to 

 

Injuries that are 6 days old 10 days old.. and we're playing outmanned and we've lost by field goals 

 

So if Andy Reid had the better teams and we are more hurt.. I'm pretty sure Sean McDermott did a hell of a coaching job the last two years despite the narrative

 

 

Maturing is realizing Brandon Beane is the man we should want fired, not Sean McDermott. 

[L Ron Burgundy]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

No offense but I am 100% certain so many people have disliked Sean McDermott for so long they're going to call out anything 

 

And call everything a paper tiger 

 

We've literally gone into the playoffs with the Chiefs starting AJ Klein at linebacker  because of injuries... Played without our starting safety 

 

 

 

Playing Klein was a decision.   A terrible one.  He may have known the defense but he was spent.  Every single team deals with injuries.   It's a lame excuse.  

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Maynard said:

That’s a good looking admin 

[US Egg]

Prescott’s 2nd in this concocted configuration and leads the league in QBR. 🤷‍♂️

[Billsatlastin2018]

The Unicorn has to overcome… usually every game :

 

1) His crap OC designed game plan;

2) Scrubs & spare part WRs, courtesy of his GM;

3) Some goofy game calls and absurd TO stuff by his HC, who is also responsible for

4) One of the poorer HS level D in years- can’t cover, can’t tackle, can’t blitz, can’t stop 3rd & longs.

 

So, he must go full cray cray mode to overcome all, something NOBODY wants him to do- because of injury risk, but because there are no other options in 2025!

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Playing Klein was a decision.   A terrible one.  He may have known the defense but he was spent.  Every single team deals with injuries.   It's a lame excuse.  

I have been looking for a long time for the stat that tracks every teams relative health historically so we can truly discuss how unfortunate we are. I would guess in the scheme of an entire year, we are actually doing pretty well. While we have had some poorly timed things occur in the postseason, does anybody here really think those past defense, even when healthy, would shut down a legit playoff team? (not the wild card carousel of bums and back ups we have had, but an actual contender). The answer is hell no and if you think that’s a yes you should be required to provide some form of logic to support it.