ESPN NFL playoff machine up and running

[cgang]

14% chance of getting first seed.  14% chance of missing the playoffs entirely (according to Grok anyway).   I’m rooting for 86% chance of making the playoffs to at least have something to cheer for on wildcard weekend.

 

what a frustrating season. lol 

[Fleezoid]

49 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

You can't compare 1976 to today because the rules have changed (multiple times). The most recent change was 2019 which gave 1 team per conference the bye. A week off after a 17 game season and 2 home games to get the the Superbowl is a pretty big deal now.

 

Yes. And based on that chart, after 2019, only one team as the one seed got to the SB. It was the Chiefs, and they won. 

 

And the Bills in the 90s are skewing those numbers a bit. 

 

 

Edited 22 hours ago by Fleezoid

[Gregg]

16 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

AFC-

1. KC 13-4

2. Indy 12-5

3. New England 12-5

4. Baltimore 11 -6

5. Denver 13-4

6. LA 11-6

7. Buffalo 11-6

 

NFC -

1. Philadelphia 15-2

2. LA 14-3

3. Detroit 13-4

4. Tampa 13-4

5. San Francisco 12-5

6. Seattle 12-5

7. Green Bay 10-6-1

. 

 

If your predictions come true, then the Bills go to Indianapolis on WC weekend. JT against the Bills fantastic run defense. What could go wrong here

[Haslett_Stomp]

1 hour ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

 

Who was the # seed in 1992 if not the Bills?

[frostbitmic]

7 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

If your predictions come true, then the Bills go to Indianapolis on WC weekend. JT against the Bills fantastic run defense. What could go wrong here

Good thing my predictions never come to be. 💣

[Bills!Win!]

We will get in even if we win 9 games. The afc west and afc north will beat up

on each other

[Jeffbigalls]

On 11/12/2025 at 12:50 PM, Bills fan since 87 said:

Some prefer the NY Times playoff predictor but I like this one, you can pick game by game and playoffs spots update with each pick:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

I keep coming up with us as a 6 or 7 seed, which is fine as we would miss 4 seed Baltimore 

 

 

There is another one that's been up for weeks pro football network or something like that

On 11/12/2025 at 1:09 PM, Gregthekeg said:

I think the pats start to slide, they havent beaten a good team yet (Bills beat themselves) After looking at this I am even more confident that they will be higher than pats and chiefs. AFCC game in Buffalo in the snow, to the Superbowl!

Lol so the bills are a bad team?

[Jeffbigalls]

17 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

Fun fact the 2003 Patriots where infact the 1 seed and did infact win the super bowl

[Billsfanatic8989]

18 hours ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

 

Who was the # seed in 1992 if not the Bills?

Miami. Buffalo beat them on the road in the AFC title game. Media wanted Miami to win to have a Marino vs Aikma SB. Not that it would have mattered. Dallas would have destroyed them too. 

 

Edit: NE won the SB as the one seed in 2003

19 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

2024 Chiefs were one seed and of course lost.

[Buffalo03]

On 11/12/2025 at 1:09 PM, Gregthekeg said:

I think the pats start to slide, they havent beaten a good team yet (Bills beat themselves) After looking at this I am even more confident that they will be higher than pats and chiefs. AFCC game in Buffalo in the snow, to the Superbowl!

They beat the Buccaneers just last week

[Buddy Hix]

18 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

We will get in even if we win 9 games. The afc west and afc north will beat up

on each other

Cleveland and Jets…gotta find a way to win one more.

 

What a pathetic position to be in when you have Allen in his prime. Scrambling to get into the playoffs with the Jets and Fins in your division. Pegula asleep at the wheel, as per usual.

[Billsfanatic8989]

4 AFC one seeds (14/16 Pats, 15 Broncos, 22 Chiefs) have won the SB in the past eleven years. Three others (17 Pats, 20 Chiefs, 24 Chiefs) got there and lost. Four others (18 Chiefs, 19/23 Ravens, and 2021 Titans) lost before the SB. 

 

14 Seahawks, 15 Cats, 16 Cowboys, 17/22 Birds, 18 Saints, 19/23 Niners, 20/21 Pack, 24 Lions

 

6/11 NFC one seeds (49ersx2, Panthers, Seattle, Eaglesx2) made the SB since 2014. Only one (17 Eagles) actually won the SB. The Saints, Dallas, Packersx2, and Lions lost before the SB.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Billsfanatic8989

[Billsfanatic8989]

33 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Cleveland and Jets…gotta find a way to win one more.

 

What a pathetic position to be in when you have Allen in his prime. Scrambling to get into the playoffs with the Jets and Fins in your division. Pegula asleep at the wheel, as per usual.

That will be a tough game just because of their defense. However, they can't score and have a horrific QB. Bills SHOULD win. 

[BillsShredder83]

20 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

Not relevant to this Indian burial ground injury cursed team.

 

Its a 2pt swing.

A. We need another week off

B. We need to not suffer further injuries in wild cars because God knows we'll suffer debilitating injuries if we make a WC

 

They need to prove to me and more importantly themselves that we aren't pretenders 

[Scott7975]

On 11/12/2025 at 1:09 PM, Gregthekeg said:

I think the pats start to slide, they havent beaten a good team yet (Bills beat themselves) After looking at this I am even more confident that they will be higher than pats and chiefs. AFCC game in Buffalo in the snow, to the Superbowl!

They only have 2 good teams left on their schedule. Unless you count the Bengals I guess. The Bills need to pretty much win out from here and have to hope the Pats lose a game they should and one they shouldn’t. 

On 11/14/2025 at 11:39 AM, Antonio said:

For all of us that enjoy playing with different scenarios, the ESPN Playoffs Machine is active.

 

ESPN Playoffs Machine - Playoffs Predictor

 

I wanted to check how hard it is for the Bills to get the No. 1 overall seed and by week 15 I made that happen with a realistic scenario:

 

1. Bills get on a roll and win all this games on a hard streach that includes games @Texans, @Pittsburgh & @New England. BILLS 11-3.

2. Colts lose @ KC next week and win the rest of their games. COLTS 11-3.

3. New England drops their hot streak of 8 consecutive win games @Cincinnati and of course, they lose against the Bills at home. NE 10-4.

4. KC wins all their games and are the 3rd Seed. KC 10-4.

 

I think that up until that point, it is not impossible to happen, but the bad news is that we pretty much need to stay hot the rest of the way cause even if we drop one game we might end up as far as 5th seed. 

 

And before you come at me with "one game at the time", I don´t play the game, you don´t play the game so we can look ahead and have some fun. 

 

 

seems feasible if the Bills get their O on track. 

21 hours ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

yeah well it hasn’t been that long since the second seed didn’t also get a bye week. Try stats from that point. 

[Buffalo ill]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

They only have 2 good teams left on their schedule. Unless you count the Bengals I guess. The Bills need to pretty much win out from here and have to hope the Pats lose a game they should and one they shouldn’t.

I suppose anything is possible.  If the Patriots finish 15-2 and win the superbowl then Vrabel is a genius and shame on the buffalo owner and leadership.  

[Billsfanatic8989]

8 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

They only have 2 good teams left on their schedule. Unless you count the Bengals I guess. The Bills need to pretty much win out from here and have to hope the Pats lose a game they should and one they shouldn’t. 

seems feasible if the Bills get their O on track. 

yeah well it hasn’t been that long since the second seed didn’t also get a bye week. Try stats from that point. 

2020: Chiefs made SB and lost

2021: Titans lost first playoff game 

2022: Chiefs made SB and won

2023: Ravens lost AFCCG

2024: Chiefs made SB and lost

 

One seed in AFC is 3/5 making SB. They are 1/5 in winning SB. 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo ill said:

I suppose anything is possible.  If the Patriots finish 15-2 and win the superbowl then Vrabel is a genius and shame on the buffalo owner and leadership.  

I don’t think they win the Super Bowl. I’m only going so far as to think they most likely win the division. 

3 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

2020: Chiefs made SB and lost

2021: Titans lost first playoff game 

2022: Chiefs made SB and won

2023: Ravens lost AFCCG

2024: Chiefs made SB and lost

 

One seed in AFC is 3/5 making SB. They are 1/5 in winning SB. 

Ok but I think everyone should admit the advantage it brings. Can you do the NFC? I don’t care about wins. Just how many made it. Chiefs kind of skew things. NFC has had a little more parity. 

[Billsfanatic8989]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I don’t think they win the Super Bowl. I’m only going so far as to think they most likely win the division. 

Ok but I think everyone should admit the advantage it brings. Can you do the NFC? I don’t care about wins. Just how many made it. Chiefs kind of skew things. NFC has had a little more parity. 

2020: Packers lost NFCCG 

2021: Packers lost division game

2022: Eagles lost SB

2023: Niners lost SB

2024: Lions lost division game

 

2/5 one seeds got to the SB and lost.

 

I think the Chiefs have been the best team. But the NFC has had better teams as a whole.

Edited 1 hour ago by Billsfanatic8989

[Boatdrinks]

20 hours ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

 

Who was the # seed in 1992 if not the Bills?

Pretty sure the Steelers were the # 1 seed that year, losing to the Bills at home in the divisional. That was week after the comeback WC game vs Oilers.