Bust or Breakout: Can Keon Coleman make an "Eric Moulds" style great leap forward

[notpolian]

6 minutes ago, In Summary said:

What team is adjusting their game plan around Coleman? What defense is worried about always putting their top corner on him? Those are thresholds that he's not crossing this year.

Especially when Coleman is the only WR on the field.  That's what bothers me the most.  We run the 13 personnel and we just don't have a threat on the outside.  He blocks well but that is not enough. 

 

He is what I thought he'd be.  When the coaches realize that, get someone else out there, and break the news to Allen is the question.

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, QCity said:

 

 

This doesn't remotely fit Coleman.

 

Heading into the Draft, almost no one here liked him as a prospect and even less wanted him to be our pick.

 

After he was Drafted, we all had hopes that he'd succeed - as we do with all Draft Picks. But there was no hype from the fanbase over him. Just hopes that were pretty quickly dashed.

Edited 6 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[In Summary]

6 minutes ago, notpolian said:

Especially when Coleman is the only WR on the field.  That's what bothers me the most.  We run the 13 personnel and we just don't have a threat on the outside.  He blocks well but that is not enough. 

 

He is what I thought he'd be.  When the coaches realize that, get someone else out there, and break the news to Allen is the question.

Without many other options he'll certainly have the rest of the year to prove me wrong.

[Dafan]

Comparing Eric Moulds first couple of years to Coleman is stupid.  Moulds came on to the Bills with Andre Reed, Steve Tasker and Jay Riemersma, plus others.  Moulds wasn't expecting to be the "guy", when he came here. And that was the WR/TE grouping for a few years.  Moulds was WR4/5 for multiple years.

Quote

 

 

[Nephilim17]

Coleman can be a good athlete but just not the right fit for a boundary receiver. Like how a guy can be a great athlete for a linebacker but not a cornerback. Many people, scouts, here, and pundits, said when we drafted him that his best fit is a big slot. But we have Shakir so he plays outside. He's not playing in his ideal place. That's not really his fault. Beane reached on him for whatever reasons. I hope we draft a size/speed guy in the next draft who has proven experience playing outside.

[EssexBill]

Got my hopes up after his 100 yard game v the ravens, unfortunately he’s not got even to 50% of that level since then. 
 

He looks like he’ll trip himself up every time I see him get into a full sprint (which isn’t often), like Forrest Gump with his leg braces on 
 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by EssexBill

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

While I agree that Josh was able to do something that you don't generally see, I don't think it's a comparable situation. He had an Elite bag of tools to work with.

 

Keon is physically limited. There's nothing that can be done about his speed (or lack thereof) or his body type. Even if he became bigger and stronger, it would just serve to make him even slower.

Totally fair. 

 

i probably should have been clearer and maybe not used Josh. I was trying to say he overcame his collegiate completion percentage issues in a similar manner. He did have elite tools though. Many thought he’d be the 1st overall pick.
 

Harmon looked at the specifics of Keon’s separation metrics. Guys with those metrics succeeded at an incredibly low percentage and almost always in the slot. FWIW, I remember Amon-Ra St. Brown was a success story. Other guys were like Johnny Wilson. 

[Kirby Jackson]

9 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Keon's played in 3 less games and 40 less targets and has only 54 yards and 1 TD less receiving than Xavier Worthy 2 less games  with 23 less targets and 162 more yards and as many TDs as Xavier Legette aka the two picks that he was traded for that and were drafted above him. I'm guessing we should have stayed put and drafted with of them instead?

We should have sold out to get one of the big 3 (or even Thomas) because we needed a number 1. With all due respect, counting gross stats doesn’t tell me much of a story because there are so many variables that determine success. Who is your QB? What is your scheme? Who is the play caller? How many different ways can you help a team? What is asked of you? Where are you on the depth chart?  Etc, etc, etc.. There is way too much information out there in 2025 to count yards/receptions/tds. That doesn’t tell you the story. That tells you how about their opportunity. We need to dig a little deeper and compare success within that opportunity. 

 

We didn’t have the luxury of taking an extremely flawed prospect and HOPING that he would defy his metrics. That was a bad plan. You needed more of a sure thing because that guy had to contribute. You couldn’t take on so much downside.

 

Worthy would have 100% been a better pick. He wouldn’t be perfect but is a better player than Keon. I liked AD Mitchell, Legette and others above him too. He was WR 15 for me I think. I certainly liked McConkey above him because he was extremely safe. He was a guy that was going to eat targets because of his ability to get open and produce in the SEC. They vacated a zillion targets with Gabe and Diggs leaving. They didn’t replace that in FA so they didn’t have the luxury of drafting a long shot prospect with major red flags. Keon “the idea” is as bad as Keon “the player.” 
 

This isn’t hindsight. This is well documented on here leading up to the 2024 draft. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Kirby Jackson

[nuklz2594]

bigger bust than Perry tuttle

[Pete]

Please don’t ever use Eric Moulds and Keon In the same sentence.  Moulds is probably the greatest WR I’ve ever seen on the Bills.  He was fast, he was tough.  He could outrun the D, or he could run them over.  Keon is Beanes worst draft pick ever

[EssexBill]

7 minutes ago, Pete said:

Please don’t ever use Eric Moulds and Keon In the same sentence.  Moulds is probably the greatest WR I’ve ever seen on the Bills.  He was fast, he was tough.  He could outrun the D, or he could run them over.  Keon is Beanes worst draft pick ever

Boogie Basham has entered the chat 

[Pete]

Just now, EssexBill said:

Boogie Basham has entered the chat 

Boogie wasn’t a 1st rounder.  Beanes blown many DT draft picks.  Dewayne is looking like a major bust too.  That’s the pick we got trading back for Keon 🤮 

[EssexBill]

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

Boogie wasn’t a 1st rounder.  Beanes blown many DT draft picks.  Dewayne is looking like a major bust too.  That’s the pick we got trading back for Keon 🤮 

Keon wasn’t a first rounder either 

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh good, a Keon Coleman thread. In all seriousness, not much to discuss, he sucks. It’s been debated on here for a year and a half. The Keon truthers have finally gone silent.
 

He’s not even really a bust. He was like the 8th or 9th WR picked and he was way overdrafted. Keon was an extremely flawed prospect that hasn’t overcome those major holes in his game. 

I thought it was a terrible pick, and hoped he could contribute, but it was an Elam type miss.

[Ray Stonada]

Are there any great WR prospects coming up in the 2026 draft? 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

I thought it was a terrible pick, and hoped he could contribute, but it was an Elam type miss.

In a lot of ways it was a really, really arrogant approach to WR. The Bills traded Diggs and let Gabe walk. They didn’t replace them in FA (Samuel and Mack). Maybe they thought Samuel would replace Gabe. Mack was brought here for ST but outperformed that. 
 

They went into, arguably, the greatest WR draft ever with a clear hole at the top of the depth chart. There were 3 guys that were surefire number 1 WRs and then a 4th guy that was kind of in his own tier. He was the prototypical 1st round WR prospect that was going to be a good WR. He had a little more downside than the other 3 but upside as well. From there, there was probably about another 10 guys that were 1st or 2nd round type of guys in a normal draft. They had varying levels of ceilings and floors. They also had diverse skills that both made them good and limited them.
 

From that group you had to select the right combination of skills that you needed with the right mix of floor and ceiling. As an example, if the Bengals wanted a WR they could swing for the fences because if they missed, they were still great there. If they hit, they could dump an expensive good player and get a return.
 

The Bills were trying to replace the top of their depth chart and a lot of targets. They had to take a guy with a higher floor even if it meant they were sacrificing some upside. The most important skillset that they needed was the ability to get open. They should have tried to move mountains to get one of the top 3. I didn’t love Thomas at the time but he made sense after that. When they failed to move up McConkey, Worthy or Pearsall should have been the pick (probably in that order). You had to have a guy that was going to be good and productive out of the gate. Maybe none of those guys would ever be great but would be a solid contributor immediately. The Bills didn’t have the luxury to miss (to go back to the Bengals example above). 
 

Instead, they traded down twice. That was insulting enough and showed a lack of a plan. Then, they decline offers to trade down further and take the guy with a ton of question marks. He was considered a project by everyone. The thought was always, “he could become Devante Adams but it’s a long shot.” The Bills could have done that later but they had to have a “safer” option first. They had to protect against, “what if this guy just stinks?” Unfortunately, that’s what happened and they are trotting out one of the worst WR rooms in the league. It hasn’t bitten them yet but how much better would this team be if you just swapped out Coleman for Ladd? The entire approach to WR has been arrogant and flawed.

1 minute ago, Ray Stonada said:

Are there any great WR prospects coming up in the 2026 draft? 

Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, Chris Bell and Denzel Boston are probably the most popular names. There’s a kid at Tennessee and a kid at A&M as well. It’s a group that looks better now than it did earlier in the season. The 2027 class should be an all-timer.

[NoSaint]

11 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh good, a Keon Coleman thread. In all seriousness, not much to discuss, he sucks. It’s been debated on here for a year and a half. The Keon truthers have finally gone silent.
 

He’s not even really a bust. He was like the 8th or 9th WR picked and he was way overdrafted. Keon was an extremely flawed prospect that hasn’t overcome those major holes in his game. 

yea, frankly he’s playing to his draft profile pretty darn accurately 

 

a slower guy that struggles to create space but will slightly better than average win on balls that have a low catch rate. 

 

it was written all over his film and measurables minus being fast in the one drill. but wait, he also played basketball so he maybe never developed fully. 
 

We all are hoping that he grows more than most guys do… luckily on top of all that he seems to have a knack for not having 100% focus

[Einstein]

12 hours ago, ChicagoRic said:

Um.   

Moulds

1996:  20 catches for 279 yards and 2TD

1997:  29 catches for 294 yards and 0TD

 

Coleman

2024: 29 catches for 556 yards and 4TD.

2025: 29 catches for 284 yards and 2TD so far. 

.

 

Well, duh.

 

Coleman is our #1, with Josh Allen at QB.

Moulds was our #4, with Todd Collins at QB.

 

Im guessing you weren’t watching football in the 90’s if you think Moulds was worse than Coleman at this point.

 

 

[Big Turk]

He can make a leap forward, probably not to Moulds level, but he is not being utilized properly right now so if he continues being used the way he is, probably not.

Edited 15 minutes ago by Big Turk

[finn]

11 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

I mean, his absolute ceiling is Hines Ward. I doubt he ever works as hard to achieve it because he came in feeling anointed. After this season he will be at a crossroads and it will be up to him where he ends. 

Or Anquan Boldin. Although both he and Ward were considerably shorter, both were a lot less physical than Coleman. As others have said, he's big but plays small. Doesn't box out or sky for the jump ball consistently, hands not great, slow. Sure doesn't bring much for someone who gets more snaps than any other skill player. Can he develop? It's looking more dubious as time goes on. I think the best hope is the problems are in his head. Compare his FSU tape to his NFL tape; it's like two different players. (I've only seen his college highlights, though.) 

 

For example, on several comeback routes on the sideline, Allen throws a perfect ball with perfect timing to his outside shoulder, where only he can get the ball. Diggs thrived on those. Impossible to defend, even with such a slow receiver. Yet Coleman allowed the DB to make a play. That seems fixable. I mean, the guy is big. Allen could also throw way over his head sometimes, which I haven't seen. Coleman seems to love those climb the ladder balls. 

 

So maybe there's hope.