Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[Chaos]

best kept secret since the Manhattan project. 

[Urban Achievers]

Is this secretly akin to our wr group getting better? 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't think it's a surprise. I mentioned that rather explicitly.

A couple of you guys are getting distracted about this whole "you HAVE to be able to throw the ball" point. Well, If you read my post, I've got great news for you. Not only CAN we pass the ball, but it would appear we're one of the best teams int he league at it right now. Sleep easy. 

Are you intentionally ignoring the data that says this isn't true?

 

So when the Bills lead the NFL in rushing(by a lot) in 2015 and Tyrod averaged 8 yards per attempt........that was actually an "elite" offense too?

 

Attaching an exciting adjective to describe the "offense" doesn't help it complete the passes necessary to succeed when the run game naturally/organically regresses in the second and third rounds of the playoffs.

 

And the formula in the 3rd season of Joe Brady is not appreciably different than the prior two so it's certainly not a "secret".

 

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[BullBuchanan]

47 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Being 5th in YPA really doesn't matter when you're 15th (which is actually a little higher than I expected) in Passing.  

 

When you're 5th in Yards Per Attempt and 15th in Yards Passed, it's really hard to believe we're secretly an Elite Offense.

Umm, so a team that's 5th on YPA, but ranks lower on Total Yardage is missing what to get their total yardage higher?

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, Billsfed1 said:

It’s a top offense statistically, whether ppl want to believe it or not lol.  Doesn’t have to be flashy, just has to be effective 

 

Who even says the offense has to be effective?

 

That Broncos team that won the SB a decade ago didn't have an effective offense.

 

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

I think that happened in week 1

[BullBuchanan]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

So when the Bills lead the NFL in rushing(by a lot) in 2015 and Tyrod averaged 8 yards per attempt........that was actually an "elite" offense too?

Not elite, but very good? Yes. Absolutely.

They were 8th in total touchdowns that year too.

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Umm, so a team that's 5th on YPA, but ranks lower on Total Yardage is missing what to get their total yardage higher?

if only it were so simple

 

unless you think we're 30th in attempts for no reason

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Who even says the offense has to be effective?

 

That Broncos team that won the SB a decade ago didn't have an effective offense.

 

If you want to have an historically good defense, like a top 10 all-time level, then yea, you can occasionally win a Super Bowl like that too. Those are typically pretty hard to come by though.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

if only it were so simple

 

unless you think we're 30th in attempts for no reason

We're actually 28th in attempts per game. And that's going to be significantly skewed buy our blowout of the Panthers where there was no reason to pass. If we threw our per game average in that game (29) instead of just 19 passes, we would rise up to 23rd.

We've been so successful on the ground, is it really a  question why there are less opportunities to pass?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

We're actually 28th in attempts per game. And that's going to be significantly skewed buy our blowout of the Panthers where there was no reason to pass. If we threw our per game average in that game (29) instead of just 19 passes, we would rise up to 23rd.

We've been so successful on the ground, is it really a  question why there are less opportunities to pass?

also skewed by the Ravens game where we threw 46x (and scored 41pts) so let's not pretend there isn't sample size bias 

 

every snap on offense is an opportunity to pass. we have fewer attempts because 1- we want to run the ball/control the clock and 2-we lack the receivers and scheme to maximize those opportunities

[Returntoglory]

Yeah. So secret that the offense is clueless.

[BillsFanForever19]

43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Umm, so a team that's 5th on YPA, but ranks lower on Total Yardage is missing what to get their total yardage higher?

 

Yards Per Attempt can be manipulated by the amount of attempts. YPA doesn't really mean much. It's how many attempts have been made and how many yards gained on those attempts that truly matter.

 

An Elite running game? Sure. The stats back that up. But an Elite rushing attack and a middle of the road passing attack doesn't equate to an Elite Offense. 

 

I still maintain, we can get by when the Running game is rolling. But nowadays, that requires us being able to overcome their game planning for it. In the past 3 games, that's only happened once. It's not sustainable to expect that every week. 

 

Good teams know if you can contain James Cook - we don't have the firepower to overcome even simple single man coverage. That isn't a "secretly elite offense".

[starrymessenger]

Unless they do something to upgrade the passing game I fear it will forever remain a secret.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If you want to have an historically good defense, like a top 10 all-time level, then yea, you can occasionally win a Super Bowl like that too. Those are typically pretty hard to come by though.

 

 

I'm not sure that's a proven formula either.   It's just happened THAT way a few times in the last 50+ years.

 

The 2012 Ravens were 10th in scoring offense and 12th in scoring defense had like a 150 point point differential deficit to the Patriots.......but they won the AFC and then the SB after going 10-6 in the regular season.

 

I did an average last year of the ranks of SB winners in the past 25 years and it was like 7th offensively and 8th defensively.

 

Non-great teams without any "elite" side of the ball can win SB's.......if circumstances fall in their favor or they just get hot like Flacco did...... too.

 

The Bills have a punchers chance because of Josh, their running game and the potential of their defense to get pressure and create turnovers.

 

So I don't buy the "they can't win" line of thinking.........but I think it's A LOT less likely to happen without improving the quality of their receiving corps.

 

It would be a pretty big outlier because for the last 10 years the teams that win it usually have a second receiving option who ranks in the top 32 in receiving in the league.    Basically, doubling down on receiving talent has been paying dividends for a pretty long time now.

 

 

 

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

The pivot here for Brady needs to find a way to be less predictable with his run and pass game. Mixing in run/pass, formation, personnel to break tendency and try and take advantage of good looks. 
 

It’s no doubt we’re a running football team, and the passing game is limited. Can’t they stay ahead of this by being less predictable? 
 

More pass from under center, more run from the gun, PA on 1st down, maybe try throwing the ball past the line of scrimmage for once. 

[BillytheKid]

Here is the real data for you. 
 

Going into the Carolina game Allen had a 156 passer rating to Tight Ends and anything middle of the field. 

Bills also lead the league in EPA by FAR. 2nd place team isn’t close. 
 

When they throw outside it drops down into the 80’s passer rating and the offensive EPA is a negative number and drops to 21st in the league. 
 

So yes they can definitely pass, to the middle of the field. They can not pass outside.

 

So does Brady use the Tight ends and middle of the field more? 
 

Does the defense take it away? Chiefs suck on play action and middle of the field against tight ends. 
 

Because of this I’m sure Brady will call plays throwing to the outside or run some weird trick play he likes to run instead of doing what works. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

If you haven't watched Michael MacKelvie's stuff before, he just might be the most interesting sports content creator out there right now.
 
After watching this video, I checked the Bills rushing and passing per attempt, and while rushing at #2 (5.2 YPA) wasn't a total surprise, I was definitely shocked to see us at tied with Detroit #5 (8.0 YPA) in passing. Interesting there's only three teams inside the top 10 in both (Bills, Colts, Ravens), and only the Bills and Colts are in the top 5 in both. Every team except the Ravens in the top 10 passing YPA is in a playoff spot right now. On the top 10 rushing YPA, it's 40-60 (Bills, Colts, Broncos, Chargers) with the Panthers and Jags each on the edge.

McDermott has been  telling us for years that he wants to run the football, and Beane has been telling us for a couple years that he doesn't think we have a receiving issue. Is it possible they're actually on to something here?

 

Interesting.  I agree that what we're seeing from the Bills on offense starting last year and intensifying this year is by design.  And I could see the Bills being aware of this guys work.  

 

It's weird that on one hand there seems to be something off about the Bills offense particularly the passing game.  Yet by almost every measure they're a top 5 offense.  Are we just seeing the expected rough edges & growing pains associated with the Bills moving from one offensive approach to another? I don't know only time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

This is skewed by the Ravens game where they had to turn it on and Ravens defense is garbage.

 

Pats 20 points

ATL 14 points

 

In no world is that elite. I will revisit this thread when Cook starts getting stuffed and we go down two scores against a competent defense.

[Richard Noggin]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

 

Like against a healthy Ravens defense who was up multiple scores in the 4th quarter?