Game week thread - Pats at Bills SNF

[50yrpatsfan]

20 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Has Maye "torched" anyone yet this year?

 

He's had some decent games, but that seems hyperbolic.  He's nowhere near Lamar or Mahomes or some of the other QB's we have to face.

 

Think Justin Herbert. 6'4, big arm, accurate, athletic, mobile but not a runner per se. He's playing well, partly his own improvement and partly due to 4 new offensive lineman and a great OC. 

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Maye is going to torch this defense.

 

We are going to need to win a shootout.

 

You’re right that McD has historically been able to beat young BAD QB’s. But even as a ROOKIE, Maye had over 290 yards and 2 TD’s against our defense. And he is better this year than last year.

 

We are going to get torched on 3rd down, over and over, and are going to need to win a shootout (30-27 type of deal).

 

I mean, anyone can say anything.  

 

But you need to justify what you say, to have any meaningful discussion.  So what's your justification?

 

Example:  At the point where McDermott stole Mac Jones lunch money on Dec 26, 2021 in Foxboro, he was 8-2 in the preceding 10 games, with one loss in OT vs the Cowboys.   No one was calling him a bad QB.  There was a lot of press  of him as a ROY frontrunner and the next thing.  Normally sensible podcasters like Brett Kollman were cutting videos titled "Mac Jones Terrifies Me".  Before a season of Matt Patricia as OC ruined him and Frank Reich and Sean Mcdermott ruthlessly dissected his weaknesses, he was actually regarded as good, and promising.

So exactly why is Maye going to torch this defense?

 

 

[50yrpatsfan]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I didn't see it either.

Longest run was 22 yds.  Yardage split between 3 backs. 
They were running with some success from the starting drive, where they went right down the field for a TD.

 

I think they got away from the run more than they should have, but that's where watching the game would be needed. 

NE broke a ST TD, got great field position off a missed FG and a 30 yd return.  NE went into the half with a 28-6 lead.

Carolina ran all over the Pats on the first 2 drives of the game, then were shut down almost completely with everything they tried. Pats also shut down the Steelers run game the week before and held them to 200 yards total offense, which was more impressive. In their first 2 games vs LV and Miami, they got run on pretty good. They have a very good front 4 of Barmore, Tonga, Milton Williams, and Harold Landry (none of them played last year for NE), and good depth rotating in. 

 

They're a real team compared to the last few years. Will likely win 9-10 games. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The defense last year was ranked 17th. It did well against sub par offense, OK against OK offense, and bad against good offenses. This year with an influx of talent hopefully it can push at top 10 ranking which would be a substantial improvement. Thus far it is ranked something like 12th overall. We haven't seen this team play great offenses week to week other than week 1 against a healthy Ravens which the team did not fare well. Other than that the defense has faired from OK to very good against lesser offenses. 

 

17th right now, looks like.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I'm more worried about Maye using his legs to extend drives. Rattler killed us last week 

Agree.  Outside of Lamar, the Bills franchise has always struggles against rushing QB's and good to great Tight ends.  Its like it is in the DNA of the franchise. 

 

Go back to Blake Bortles in the Jags playoff game...arghh he passed for 87 yards and rushed for 88!

Edited Thursday at 04:59 PM by Ethan in Cleveland

[Beck Water]

35 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

One note, if Vrabel were that good a head coach, he would still be working in his last job as HC in Tennessee. NVM that his GM screwed him by shipping out WR AJ Brown to the Eggels...although one skill player loss shouldn't make or break a team. After going 11-5 in 2020, 12-5 in 2021. His team went into the toilet 7-10, 6-11, in the next two seasons. His playoff teams bowed out after losing their first game. 

 

Vrable did have a future HC in Arthur Smith as his OC back then, as he has Josh McDaniels he has as his OC now. His DC has been a defensive line coach for many years in Tennessee before becoming the line coach/run game coordinator last season for the Lions. 

 

The Patsies are 2-2, having lost to the Raiders, Steelers while beating the Dolphins, Panthers. The Patriots have both offensive and defensive numbers, both 10th in points allowed, scored. 14th in yards, 16th in yards allowed. 

 

Buffalo is #2 overall on offense. 17th in points allowed, 11th in yards allowed. Plus, the Bills are getting some injured players back on defense and should improve on defense. Odds are Bills -7.5. And the game is in Buffalo in front of screaming Bills fans. I think they cover the spread in this one.

 

Coaches need players.  

 

The Tenn offense was built around "pick your poison".  Run over you with Derrick Henry; if you sell out to stop Henry, throw over the top to AJ Brown.  
Replacing AJ Brown with Bobby Trees absolutely lopped off one of their main branches (see what I did there?) and losing their starting QB 6 games in to 2023 sealed the deal.

 

Vrabel absolutely got screwed on personnel by his GM and we have to mind that.

[Buffalo4Life01]

3 minutes ago, 50yrpatsfan said:

Carolina ran all over the Pats on the first 2 drives of the game, then were shut down almost completely with everything they tried. Pats also shut down the Steelers run game the week before and held them to 200 yards total offense, which was more impressive. In their first 2 games vs LV and Miami, they got run on pretty good. They have a very good front 4 of Barmore, Tonga, Milton Williams, and Harold Landry (none of them played last year for NE), and good depth rotating in. 

 

They're a real team compared to the last few years. Will likely win 9-10 games. 

The Panthers, as a team, averaged 5.64 yards per carry against New England which is a GREAT rushing average.  Some context here will help.  The Panthers were down by multiple scores at halftime and largely abandoned the run in the 2nd half.  The Steelers had 53 rushing yards against the Jets, 72 against the Seahawks, 64 against the Patriots, and 131 against the Vikings.  The ONLY team not to go over 100 rushing yards against the Vikings was the Bengals who fell into an early hole and was forced to abandoned the run early.  That's all to say the Steelers do not have a good running game so far this season.  A little context goes a long ways sometimes

Any given Sunday applies to every game.  Of course the Patriots could come into Buffalo Sunday night and walk away with a win.  Absolutely they can.  But this air of being overly confident right now after only being a play or two away from being 1-3 is baffling to me.  I hope the entire team walks into Highmark with as much bravado as most of their fans seem to have right now.  Humble pie is ready to be served piping hot!

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

This idea Vrabel has McD's number is not really accurate. The Titans were a bad matchup for the Bills not because they were masterfully coached (I would classify Vrable as an OK coach) but because they had two components that were a bad matchup for the Bills. Derrick Henry and a strong interior D-line. In the early Josh era 2020-2022 the Bills interior O-line was ok to mediocre and the Titans had Simmons and other good DT's that were among the better DT units in the league. 

 

And as you mentioned the Bills in that matchup were still 3-2 despite the mismatch. 

(Among other things) I REALLY don't get how Vrabel is considered to be some elite legendary coach by so many on here.  The definition of style over substance.  The definition of a Meathead.  So many times I watched crappy Titans teams coached by him and they'd throw to a shot of the Neanderthal on the sideline and my immediate thought was always the same - "What a Meathead".  He's like Bob Saleh Lite

Edited Thursday at 05:14 PM by stevewin

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I mean, anyone can say anything.  

 

But you need to justify what you say, to have any meaningful discussion.  So what's your justification?

 

Example:  At the point where McDermott stole Mac Jones lunch money on Dec 26, 2021 in Foxboro, he was 8-2 in the preceding 10 games, with one loss in OT vs the Cowboys.   No one was calling him a bad QB.  There was a lot of press  of him as a ROY frontrunner and the next thing.  Normally sensible podcasters like Brett Kollman were cutting videos titled "Mac Jones Terrifies Me".  Before a season of Matt Patricia as OC ruined him and Frank Reich and Sean Mcdermott ruthlessly dissected his weaknesses, he was actually regarded as good, and promising.

So exactly why is Maye going to torch this defense?

 

 

He's top10 in basically all the metrics I like to use to quantify QB play, it's not such a crazy thought

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Maybe.  Where did this notion that Josh McDaniels is an unrelenting offensive genius come from?

As HC the offensive genius has a win record of 0.337

As OC of the St Louis Rams, 2-14 (1-9 with a QB that had gone 7-9 the previous year as a rookie).  Bradford looked like he simply couldn't play.  Next year under Schottenheimer, could play again.  Huh.

 

As OC of NE with a QB not named Brady, 17-19.  He had Mac Jones looking good, I will grant that.  

 

Meanwhile Bobby Babich coached the #11 defense in the NFL last year.

 

I'm not trying to say that the Bills are going to blow out the Pats.  They have their problems this year.  But to my eyes, the problems are more related to the Jimmies and the Joes than the Xs and the Os or the brain power advantage. 

 

For years, the Bills had the advantage of a safety duo that was mentally elite.  They read and reacted impeccably.  We don't have that now; we don't even have the mental level that we had last year with Hamlin and Rapp.  Maybe Bishop and Rapp will level up, maybe they won't.

 

I'm just trying to understand where this Bills fan perception of inexorable mental advantage is coming from.

 

 

I mean, the fact that he got two head coaching jobs shows that he's a very good coordinator. Bobby Babich ain't getting that opportunity anytime soon lol

You can be a great coordinator but a crap head coach. (McDaniels, spagnulo etc)

 

The bills have the 11th ranked defence last year? What stat are you using to say that? (Please tell me it's not points per game)

 

If you watch other teams consistently which I'm sure you do, you would say with 100 percent certainty that the bills did not have the 11th best defence last year. It was more bottom 12 with turnovers saving them from being bottom 5

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, stevewin said:

(Among other things) I REALLY don't get how Vrabel is considered to be some elite legendary coach by so many on here.  The definition of style over substance.  The definition of a Meathead.  So many times I watched crappy Titans teams coached by him and they'd throw to a shot of the Neanderthal on the sideline and my immediate thought was always the same - "What a Meathead".  He's like Bob Saleh Lite

 

Because we're judging him on actual in-game performance and decisions (which he is top notch at as a Belichick "know the rule book" disciple), and the fact he coached a Tannehill-lead team to the #1 seed TWICE. And not just judging him on how he looks as a former LB.

 

Bob Saleh cant hold his jock.

 

And given our HC's proclivity to botching decisions in crunch time, you can absolutely expect Vrabel to get one over on McD and squeak out an extra last minute FG to tie or win if he can keep it close.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Maye is going to torch this defense.

 

who the hell is he going to throw the ball to? Diggs? Diggs vs. Thompson/Johnson will be fun to watch.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Maye is going to torch this defense.

 

We are going to need to win a shootout.

 

You’re right that McD has historically been able to beat young BAD QB’s. But even as a ROOKIE, Maye had over 290 yards and 2 TD’s against our defense. And he is better this year than last year.

 

We are going to get torched on 3rd down, over and over, and are going to need to win a shootout (30-27 type of deal).

I think maye is good but he probably has the second worth supporting cast of teams we’ve seen this year tbh. Saints are sneakily pretty loaded at the skill positions 

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

who the hell is he going to throw the ball to? Diggs? Diggs vs. Thompson/Johnson will be fun to watch.

 

I dont think Maye will come out and immediately start torching us based on just his passing ability, or NE's passing game.

 

But I do think TreVeyon Henderson will establish the run quite successfully, and then they'll start hitting the play actions.

 

And given the state of this defense and Babich's play calling, who knows where it goes from there.

[boyst]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I dont think Maye will come out and immediately start torching us based on just his passing ability, or NE's passing game.

 

But I do think TreVeyon Henderson will establish the run quite successfully, and then they'll start hitting the play actions.

 

And given the state of this defense and Babich's play calling, who knows where it goes from there.

It won't be Maye tho. It'll be the offense as a whole

[Boo Radley Boston]

1 hour ago, 50yrpatsfan said:

Think Justin Herbert. 6'4, big arm, accurate, athletic, mobile but not a runner per se. He's playing well, partly his own improvement and partly due to 4 new offensive lineman and a great OC. 

Maye has never been MVP.

 

Its over.

[wjag]

Keeping Hunter from converting on 3rd down will be the game within the game.  

[Boo Radley Boston]

11 minutes ago, boyst said:

who the hell is he going to throw the ball to? Diggs? Diggs vs. Thompson/Johnson will be fun to watch.

Henry has been the go to.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

Has Maye "torched" anyone yet this year?

 

He's had some decent games, but that seems hyperbolic.  He's nowhere near Lamar or Mahomes or some of the other QB's we have to face.

 

The pats are so odd haha…they’ve probably played 4 quarters of good football in 4 weeks it just came at kinda the right times to be 2-2 instead of 1-3 lol maye has done what he needed to do most of the time…im not sure I buy this ‘he’s the next Josh Allen’ hype yet but he’s def above average 

Edited Thursday at 05:57 PM by Generic_Bills_Fan

[colin]

i thought we'd look better against the aint's than we did, but i think we walk on the pats this sunday night.  big early lead and once they stop running the ball they just won't be able to keep up with us.